31 May 2013
AGU Release No. 13-24

from AGU Website

New research links gradual greening

of arid areas like Australia’s outback

to increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide.
 

WASHINGTON, DC

Scientists have long suspected that a flourishing of green foliage around the globe, observed since the early 1980s in satellite data, springs at least in part from the increasing concentration of carbon dioxide in Earth’s atmosphere.

Now, a study of arid regions around the globe finds that a carbon dioxide “fertilization effect” has, indeed, caused a gradual greening from 1982 to 2010.

Focusing on the southwestern corner of North America, Australia’s outback, the Middle East, and some parts of Africa, Randall Donohue of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) in Canberra, Australia and his colleagues developed and applied a mathematical model to predict the extent of the carbon-dioxide (CO²) fertilization effect.

They then tested this prediction by studying satellite imagery and teasing out the influence of carbon dioxide on greening from other factors such as precipitation, air temperature, the amount of light, and land-use changes.

The team’s model predicted that foliage would increase by some 5 to 10 percent given the 14 percent increase in atmospheric CO² concentration during the study period.

The satellite data agreed, showing an 11 percent increase in foliage after adjusting the data for precipitation, yielding “strong support for our hypothesis,” the team reports.

“Lots of papers have shown an average increase in vegetation across the globe, and there is a lot of speculation about what’s causing that,” said Donohue of CSIRO’s Land and Water research division, who is lead author of the new study.

 

“Up until this point, they’ve linked the greening to fairly obvious climatic variables, such as a rise in temperature where it is normally cold or a rise in rainfall where it is normally dry. Lots of those papers speculated about the CO² effect, but it has been very difficult to prove.”

He and his colleagues present their findings in an article that has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Research Letters, a journal of the American Geophysical Union.

The team looked for signs of CO² fertilization in arid areas, Donohue said, because,

“satellites are very good at detecting changes in total leaf cover, and it is in warm, dry environments that the CO² effect is expected to most influence leaf cover.”

Leaf cover is the clue, he added, because,

“a leaf can extract more carbon from the air during photosynthesis, or lose less water to the air during photosynthesis, or both, due to elevated CO².”

That is the CO² fertilization effect.

But leaf cover in warm, wet places like tropical rainforests is already about as extensive as it can get and is unlikely to increase with higher CO² concentrations.

In warm, dry places, on the other hand, leaf cover is less complete, so plants there will make more leaves if they have enough water to do so.

“If elevated CO² causes the water use of individual leaves to drop, plants will respond by increasing their total numbers of leaves, and this should be measurable from satellite,” Donohue explained.

To tease out the actual CO² fertilization effect from other environmental factors in these regions, the researchers first averaged the greenness of each location across 3-year periods to account for changes in soil wetness and then grouped that greenness data from the different locations according to their amounts of precipitation.

The team then identified the maximum amount of foliage each group could attain for a given precipitation, and tracked variations in maximum foliage over the course of 20 years. This allowed the scientists to remove the influence of precipitation and other climatic variations and recognize the long-term greening trend.

In addition to greening dry regions, the CO² fertilization effect could switch the types of vegetation that dominate in those regions.

“Trees are re-invading grass lands, and this could quite possibly be related to the CO² effect,” Donohue said. “Long lived woody plants are deep rooted and are likely to benefit more than grasses from an increase in CO².”

“The effect of higher carbon dioxide levels on plant function is an important process that needs greater consideration,” said Donohue.

 

“Even if nothing else in the climate changes as global CO² levels rise, we will still see significant environmental changes because of the CO² fertilization effect.”

This study was funded by,

• CSIRO’s Sustainable Agriculture Flagship

• Water for a Healthy Country Flagship

• the Australian Research Council

• Land & Water Australia

Notes for Journalists
Journalists and public information officers (PIOs) of educational and scientific institutions who have registered with AGU can download a PDF copy of this accepted article by clicking on this link: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50563/abstract

Or, you may order a copy of the final paper by emailing your request to Peter Weiss at PWeiss@agu.org. Please provide your name, the name of your publication, and your phone number.

Neither the paper nor this press release are under embargo.

Title: CO² fertilization has increased maximum foliage cover across the globe's warm, arid environments
 

Authors:

Randall J. Donohue and Tim R. McVicar - CSIRO Land and Water, Canberra, Australia;
Michael L. Roderick - Research School of Biology, The Australian National University, Canberra, Australia; Research School of Earth Sciences, The Australian National University, Canberra, Australia; and Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science;
Graham D. Farquhar - Research School of Biology, The Australian National University, Canberra, Australia.

Contact information for the author: Randall Donohue, Email: Randall.Donohue@csiro.au, Phone: +61-2-6246-5803