by Tatyana Koryagina

June 29, 2001

from SchillerInstitute Website
 

Dear colleagues!

 

Helga and I are making our presentations, the attempts at intimidation, which we heard from Mr. Zhirinovsky, notwithstanding. Although it should be said, that as an individual, I did follow his advice in a certain sense, insofar as when I was elected to the first State Duma, I voluntarily refused to take my seat—but that was for other reasons.

And maybe it really would be better for women to sit in the kitchen, if it were not for the fact that our people so often have to see so many idiots among the men coming across their television screens, and if today's brilliant presentation by Vladimir Volfovich had not been just as incoherent as always. But, it's too bad he's not here and I have to talk behind his back.

In a short presentation today, I shall try to sketch the development of the research done by our group, which is a group of independent experts studying the world financial crisis, but in a more global context than merely financial.
 

 

Our Three-Level Forecast

In the Autumn of 1997, we were requested by a major industrial finance group in Moscow, to draw up such an analysis. We delivered our product to the client at the end of March 1998. In the framework of our analysis, we made a three-level forecast.

Our first forecast was optimistic, and envisaged a devaluation of the ruble, as we calculated, within a factor within the range of one-and-a-half to two, by the Fall of 1998. Our middle version suggested a three- to fourfold devaluation, and our most pessimistic forecast suggested devaluation by a factor of five to seven.

It should be noted that our clients, who were quite well-qualified people—otherwise they wouldn't have ordered such a study in the first place—were skeptical about even our most optimistic prognosis. By June [1998], however, when I had occasion to speak at an open practical-scientific conference, organized by the Ministry of Internal Affairs at the Institute for Combating Organized Crime, I limited myself to outlining only the pessimistic version, i.e., a devaluation of the ruble by a factor of five to seven that Autumn.

 

To say that the audience was shocked, would be to put it mildly. During the first half of the day, I was sitting at the dais, but after my speech, they were scared to invite me back up to the dais, although the rest of the colleagues, who had been sitting next to me, were still there. I was denounced in the mass media.

Why did I need to discuss only the pessimistic version?

 

In May, the cabinet had been broken, and Mr. Kiriyenko was named Prime Minister. For us, as analysts, this means that history was picking up the pace, and that events would be unfolding in the relatively graver ways we had identified, and possibly somewhat sooner, than our concept of a "black Autumn." And, so it happened. True, it was close to September—but still in August.

The figure of Kiriyenko was worked up quite splendidly, by the forces, who were playing out this scenario. This person was rather widely dubbed on TV, "The kinder-surprise." We called him a talking head, or a talking parrot. This is a totally peremptory person, absolutely sure of himself, who knows absolutely everything about everything. Almost like Vladimir Volfovich, one might say. Although Vladimir Volfovich is still smarter than Kiriyenko, it seems to me—a bit deeper.

In the framework of that June [1998] conference, I hesitated to name the person, on whose behalf the game was being played. Literally ten days after my speech to our policemen, I was invited to appear on REN TV, where I again laid out the pessimistic "black Autumn" scenario, and said that we would have a new Prime Minister by the end of Summer. And when all the relevant events had taken place, and REN TV invited me again, they said:

You seemed to have guessed that the default was going to happen, but the Prime Minister hasn't changed. And I said, "It's not yet evening."

Two days later, Kiriyenko was out.

Thus, one of the hypotheses about why this game was being played, and which figures were acting in the open, was that the beneficiary was Yevgeni Primakov.

The only unexpected element, when this person really did emerge as the candidate for the premiership, was that Grigori Yavlinsky was the first to bring him up. I have known Grigori for a very long time, since our work together in Nikolai Ivanovich Ryzhkov's working groups at Sosny. He is a very cowardly person, who absolutely lacks his own point of view. He is the original "floating exchange rate"—but a political one, rather than for currency. Furthermore, and I say this as a person who has been living her political life somewhat in parallel with Grigori Yavlinsky—having sat with him, Gaidar, and Volodya Orlov at the conference table in Sosny—it is the case, that with Grisha Yavlinsky there always comes bloodshed.

There was the blood of the Pugo couple, and then some other incidents. Therefore, this was a very frightening prospect. I shall not go into details, but the fact that ultimately Putin came to power, I consider to be positive.

Let me say a little bit, about why our forecast was so accurate, down to the part of the month, even to the day, with the ruble falling already in the first days of August 1998—threefold, and then 4.3-fold. This was very close to the lower boundary of our pessimistic forecast.

Many colleagues here know me, and that I have studied the "shadow" economy of the Soviet Union and then Russia, in parallel with studying the ordinary, normal economy. So, when I was dragged by the ears into politics, as well, while studying our domestic "shadow" economy and expanding that to the study of the transnational "shadow" economy, I unavoidably landed in the realm of analysis that is sometimes called conspiracy theory. This is an analytical technique, a methodology, which makes it possible to fine-tune research and quantitative evaluations, both with respect to time, and with respect to certain other kinds of parameters.

I shall not go in detail into the basis for our forecast, which I shall now present to you. Just take my word for it, as some colleagues in the Ministry of Internal Affairs audience did back then.

My forecast is that major events will unfold, once again, in August. In a strange way, it seems to me that the date may even be known. It will be on Aug. 19. I have provisionally called this scenario, "Tidal Wave XXI," where XXI denotes the new century, in Roman numerals.
 

 

The Main Blow Will Hit the United States

The main blow will be inflicted on the United States of America. My colleague [Andrei] Kobyakov said here, that his analysis shows that the eye of the cyclone will be in America. I would only add, that it will emerge there, but this will be done on purpose.

Many of the preceding speakers mentioned financial figures, on the magnitude of financial assets, which had reached around $400 trillion in 2000, as against $30 trillion world GDP, and on capital flows. But it is consistently treated as unnecessary to analyze who is transferring that money. Who is the non-resident, with respect to the American economy? Where do these investments come from? If here we bring in our supplementary analysis and methodology, the picture becomes fairly clear, and can be observed, including with respect to the persons involved.

Thus, I make this determination. It will be the United States this time, and it will be a crisis developing at a different rate than the one in 1997-98. At that time, the action was drawn out. Here, it will be more of a precision strike. It will be like the explosion of the Universe. And it will spread throughout all continents.

 

Many governments will be swept away. The monetary and financial system of the world will change.

In Russia, beyond a doubt, the free exchange of currency will be shut down. And the approximately $100 billion, now circulating in cash inside our country, will suddenly cause an enormous shock to Russian citizens. (It should be mentioned that the quantity of foreign currency, functioning in economic exchange to transact deals, is 1.5 times the ruble money supply, servicing economic activity.) It will be impossible to change money. Those who have a lot of money (and I told this to our policemen not long ago, at a follow-up conference held in May 2001) will use their greenbacks to wallpaper the bathroom, where they'll be able to admire the portrait of a past President of the U.S.A.

There will be a change of leadership in the U.S.A., and early elections in Russia. By this Fall, there will be a new Parliament, a different government, but the President will remain the same. Insofar as I nevertheless fear to say too much—and I could say very much—thank you for your attention. God grant that my forecast turn out to be wrong.

 

May God grant that!

 

Expert: Russia Knew in Advance, Encouraged Citizens to Cash Out Dollars
Dr. Alexandr Nemets
Monday, Sept. 17, 2001

from NewsMax Website

Russian press accounts and other activities by the Russian government this summer indicate that the Russian government knew in advance that something would happen to America, including a "financial attack" against the U.S. During the past three months, Russian media and officials have encouraged citizens to cash out U.S. dollars pending an economic collapse there after an "attack."

Currently, the dominant view of the media is that the terrorist actions in New York City and Washington were just a "bolt of thunder from the sky." Could it be? Yes, a well-organized group accomplished these dastardly acts. But just how well organized was it?

Obviously, President Bush and Vice President Cheney are targeting the powers behind these terrorist groups, the states that give them safe harbor and backing. Sponsors of state terrorism include Iran, Iraq, Libya, Cuba, North Korea, Sudan and Syria. Did you know that all of these countries have very close ties with Russia and her military/intelligence agencies?

Could it be that the Russians actually expected this in advance and even counted on it, discussing the possible consequences?

My suspicions were raised this July and August as I scanned and sifted through all of Russia's major newspapers. Considering Russia's close ties to these terrorist countries, Russian activities need close scrutiny.
 

Pravda Wrote of Financial 'Attack' on U.S.

Consider the July 12, 2001, Page One report in Pravda – still considered the establishment voice of Russia's old guard communists who control the military and intelligence agencies.

The Pravda article was entitled "Will the Dollar and America Fall Down on August 19? That's the Opinion of Dr. Tatyana Koryagina, Who Very [accurately] predicted the August Default in 1998."

This article struck me for several reasons. Major newspapers so closely aligned with the government do not attempt to create panic or fear in the public – unless the government wants this information to be publicly aired. Also, a major newspaper would be reluctant to print a major prediction for which it could be held accountable.

This Pravda article was published about the same time as another strange event that took place in early July in the Russian State Duma. The Duma held a conference entitled "On the measures to provide the development of Russian economy in the environment of destabilization of the world financial system."

The chairman of the Duma Commission on Economic Politics, Dr. Sergei Glazyev, headed the hearings. Some prominent foreigners, including Lyndon Larouche from the U.S. and Malaysian Ambassador in Russia Yacha Baba, were among the participants. Tatyana Koryagina made a statement at the end of hearings – as a Russian expert in the shadow economy, shadow politics and conspirology.

She is a senior research fellow in the Institute of Macroeconomic Researches subordinated to the Russian Ministry of Economic Development (Minekonom). The main theme of the Duma hearings was the rapidly approaching economic crash of the United States. The hearings focused on preparing recommendations for President Putin as to what Russia should to do to soften the consequences of this coming catastrophe. Pravda also detailed its own interview with Dr. Koryagina.

Here is an excerpt:

Pravda: All the participants at the hearings stated that America is a huge financial pyramid which will crash soon. Still, it is hard to understand how this could happen in the first and richest country of the world – without a war, without missile or bomb strikes?

Koryagina: Besides bombs and missiles, there are other kinds of weaponry, much more destructive ones. ...

Pravda: Well, economic theory. But how it is possible for you to give an exact date [for the U.S. crash] – August 19?

Koryagina: The U.S. is engaged in a mortal economic game. The known history of civilization is merely the visible part of the iceberg. There is a shadow economy, shadow politics and also a shadow history, known to conspirologists. There are [unseen] forces acting in the world, unstoppable for [most powerful] countries and even continents.

Pravda: Just these forces intend to smash America on August 19?

Koryagina: There are international "super-state" and "super-government" groups. In accordance with tradition, the mystical and religious components play extremely important roles in human history. One must take into account the shadow economy, shadow politics and the religious component, while predicting the development of the present financial situation.

 

Pravda: Still, I don't understand what could be done to this giant country [the U.S.], whose budget is calculated in the trillions of dollars.

Koryagina: It is possible to do anything to the U.S. ... whose total debt has reached $26 trillion. Generally, the Western economy is at the boiling point now. Shadow financial actives of $300 trillion are hanging over the planet. At any moment, they could fall on any stock exchange and cause panic and crash. The recent crisis in Southeast Asia, which touched Russia, was a rehearsal.

Pravda: What is the sense of smashing just America?

Koryagina: The U.S. has been chosen as the object of financial attack because the financial center of the planet is located there. The effect will be maximal. The strike waves of economic crisis will spread over the planet instantly and will remind us of the blast of a huge nuclear bomb.

Pravda: Did Russia's crisis of 1998 have this religious-mystical component?

Koryagina: ... The Russian crisis of 1998 was preconditioned by internal factors. Yeltsin's policy enlarged its consequences. Now we have President Putin, and this is a good choice.

Pravda: What do we have to do now?

Koryagina: Recommendations, compiled by the Duma Commission of Economic Politics after the recent Duma hearings, offer instruction on what should be done to escape the consequences of a world crisis inspired by a financial catastrophe in the U.S. This document will be sent – or has already been sent – to President Putin.

Pravda: What should Russian citizens do?

Koryagina: They should start changing their dollars for rubles. President Putin and the Russian Central Bank are already taking the necessary healthy measures. There are high chances that after 19 August the ruble will become a very good currency.

Pravda: Why 19 August, say, and not the 21st?

Koryagina: Some fluctuation in this date is possible. Serious forces are acting against THOSE WHO ARE NOW PREPARING THE ATTACK ON THE UNITED STATES [emphasis added]. August, with very high probability, will bring the financial catastrophe to the U.S. ... The last 10 days of August have especial importance from a religious-sensible point of view.

[End of excerpt]

It is important to note that this story was not an isolated one, or a cute, human interest story as one may find occasionally on the cover of the Wall Street Journal. It was a serious news report, and story, discussed widely in Russia, including on national TV programs. The thrust of the story was that Russian officials were strongly encouraging Russian citizens to cash out the U.S. dollar.

It is also important to understand that Dr. Koryagina is one of the leading economists in a Russian social group which, from the very beginning, has fiercely opposed "radical economic reform" in Russia. She is a firm supporter of President Putin.

She and her network actively support Putin, especially his foreign policy aimed at the diminishing America's global role. In particular, they support Putin's policy of engagement of Iran, Iraq and other nations of concern. Dr. Koryagina herself should be considered as an insightful, well-connected and well-informed person. Dr. Koryagina says much about the invisible and unstoppable "international mystical-religious forces" preparing an attack on the U.S.

It looks like she knows the real nature of these forces and tries to disguise them in a "conspiratorial fog." She is sure that such an attack or strike of some kind – sudden and effective – will soon take place, and will cause panic and an ensuing crash of the U.S. financial system and the world financial system, already unstable. However, Dr. Koryagina evidently does not know the exact mechanism of the attack.
 

Duma Warned Citizens to Cash Out Dollars

The hearings in the Duma, which has become a rubber stump for President Putin, have been inspired, without doubt, by the Kremlin, "taking the necessary healthy measures" in advance of a U.S. crash and world crisis.

The Kremlin clearly is thinking how it should operate in the "new world" after the expected U.S. crash. It is my belief that the Kremlin provided Dr. Koryagina with a very small part of its information on the forthcoming attack against the U.S.

Another article on this same theme was published by Pravda on July 17, 2001. It was an interview with Chairman of the Duma Commission on Economic Politics Dr. Sergei Glazyev, one of the most prominent Russian economists.

The article was entitled "The Dollar and the U.S. Could Fall at Any Moment."

Dr. Glazyev, in his answers, did not mention the forces preparing an attack on the U.S. and its financial system. He merely discussed the forms and scales of the forthcoming financial catastrophe in the U.S. and its consequences for Russia – mostly beneficial ones if the necessary measures are taken in advance.

In particular, like Dr. Koryagina, Dr. Glazyev advised the Russian public to change dollars for rubles and predicted that "the ruble will become the reserve currency for Eurasia, particularly in trade with China and India."
 

Third Article, More Media

Pravda published a third article on this theme on 31 July-1 August 2001. This article, called "The Dollar and the U.S. Will Fall," was in the form of an interview with the Malaysian ambassador in Russia. Other Moscow newspapers published articles of this kind also.

As a result, New York's Russian-language TV channel in early August was forced to state that "the Moscow rumors are ungrounded." Within a few days the public forgot all about this story. The tone of Moscow economists predicting the crash of the U.S. financial-economic system is confident and somewhat delightful: "Finally, it is going to happen!"

They are not only discussing the future, they are evidently trying to issue a self-fulfilling prophecy, transforming this future into the present. This is because the prospects described in the above articles are extremely attractive for the Russian elite for the following reasons:

1. It will become possible to pay off Russia's huge foreign debts with devalued dollars; it would be really easy enough if oil prices jumped to $100 per barrel or more.
    

2. Russia would become really equal among a weakened G-8 group of nations.
    

3. Investment conditions in Russia would become really attractive in comparison to the bleak global background. Russia could become the goal of huge foreign investment.
    

4. If the U.S. military might is undermined (and it might be, if the financial system collapses), Russia will regain its control over the former Soviet republics, spread it to the Balkans and reacquire its former super-empire status.

Such a prize, such a temptation for the criminal Russian "elite"! One small push, and such great booty! While reading these articles, it is almost possible to visualize how they are licking their lips with excitement.

So, those in Moscow had very serious reasons not to share information with the U.S. about the coming attack on the latter – if they indeed had such information.

Very likely they did, and the maximum amount of information was concentrated in the Kremlin. According to numerous statements published by prominent U.S. economists after the tragedy, the time and places of the attacks were chosen – more precisely, pretty well calculated – as if the terrorists or those backing them had tried to do their best to undermine the U.S. financial system and political system and to cause a financial-economic crisis in the U.S.

There is some evidence that another targeted aircraft, a TWA plane at JFK airport, did not take off and perhaps another crash was thwarted. Was it intended for the New York Stock Exchange?

"It wasn't a healthy economy to begin with, and this could be just enough to push us into a mild recession and render a blow to consumer confidence," one of these economists told the UPI.

He continued:

"There has been a complete disruption of passenger flights. Besides the airline industry, tourism, retail and the shipping sectors will feel the negative effects of Tuesday's attack. Tougher security measures now in place at the nation's airports will increase shipping and travel expenses that will be passed along to the consumer."

And the consumer confidence index, low already, declined additionally.

However, those in Moscow very probably waited for much greater effects. Remarkably, immediately after the events in New York and Washington – at approximately 6 p.m. Moscow time – the dollar exchange rate in Moscow street exchanges fell from 29 rubles to 15-20 rubles – as if the Moscow financial experts had awaited the strikes or expected greater panic and collapse.

It is important to note that such a great fluctuation in the exchange rate happened in no other world capital. The next day, the dollar in Moscow gradually returned to its previous exchange rate.

A network of terrorist groups – mostly in the U.S. and Middle East – merely provided the fingers to implement the terrorist strikes. After all, Arab terrorist groups are supported by rogue nations – Libya, Syria, Iran, Iraq and Sudan. These countries are "hands."
 

U.S. Needs to Look at Source

Now, if the U.S. and NATO forces carry out retaliatory strikes on Afghanistan, the "hands" will be punished.

• And where is the body, the heart of the beast?

• And who provides the advanced military technology – including that needed for "special actions" – to these nations of concern?

• Who supports them in the U.N.?

• Who demonstrates daily the desire to diminish or undermine America's global influence?

Moscow and Beijing.

And Moscow, probably, is even more evil and impudent. Let us consider the Moscow rulers. Yes, of course, Putin immediately sent condolences to President Bush and the American people. It should be taken into account here that in September 1999 Putin conveniently used the apartment explosions in Moscow and Volgodonsk (KGB-organized actions, in the opinion of most of the Russian media and in the opinion of the author) to gain supreme power in Russia.

Now the Kremlin is making statements about a "joint struggle against world terrorism," about "the ties between the actions in New York and the actions in Moscow in September 1999."

Indeed, these are probably closely tied to one another, and the same forces are behind the actions in New York and Moscow. But what is the real name of these forces?

The investigation should go to the bottom of the barrel and provide the proper answer.