Proposed Studies

on the

Implications of Peaceful Space Activities


Human Affairs






with the collaboration of:

  • Jack Baranson

  • Raymond A. Bauer

  • Richard L. Meier

  • Aaron B. Nadel

  • Herbert A. Shepard

  • Herbert E. Striner

  • Christopher Wright

A Report Prepared for the








[NOTE: I received the FOIA requests documents including this final report footnotes on Friday, August 2, 1996. I scanned the entire document (276 pages) using a Visioneer PaperPort Vx scanner starting on Tuesday, August 6, 1996. The entire document was processed through Omni Pro Professional V6.0 to convert it from a scanned document to a text document. The document was then fully edited using Microsoft Word V6.0.1. to correct all errors. The original page numbers of the document are shown with [-page number]. The table of contents refers to the original page numbering. I have made all attempts to insure that the document is identical to the original. There will probably be typos extant in the document. These would result from the conversion process.

If you have any comments please feel free to email me at  Thank you - Dan Woolman]


Washington, D. C.

December 1960





Contents Page




















1. See introductory discussion to Chapter 7, "Attitudes and Values." For ageneral discussion of the impact of innovation, see also Romer C. Barnett, Innovation: The Basis of Cultural Change, McGraw-Hill (1953).

2.” Although a program by program analysis is the best way to make reasonable forecasts of trends, such an exercise contains a built-in bias that none of us can correct. How many of us just 20 years ago regarded missiles and rockets -- unmanned aircraft -- as more than comic strip fantasy? Who of us had any comprehension of atomic energy and the influence it would have on the budget? With our limited perspective we tend to project only problems and programs that we either have now, or can reasonably imagine, and hence most of us are bound to misrepresent or under represented the great changes that probably will take place in future budgets." Samuel M. Cohn, "Problems in Estimating Federal Government Expenditures, Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 54 (December 1959), P. 719.

See also Senate Study No. 2 (prepared at the request of the Committee on Foreign Relations by Stanford Research Institute), Possible Nonmilitary Scientific Developments and Their Potential Impact on Foreign Policy Problems of the United States, 86th Congress, First Session (September 1959). A summary of the expected future environment is to be found in Senate Study No. 9 (prepared at the request of the Committee on Foreign Relations by The Brookings Institution), The Formulation and Administration of United States Foreign Policy, 86th Congress, Second Session (January 1960). Note especially Appendix A, "The Prospective Environment for Policymaking and Administration," by Harrison Brown. For other aspects of this problem, see also Robert L. Heilbroner, The Future as History, Harper (1060).


  1. As an example of the range of study pertinent to even one aspect of therange of research aspects implicit in this report, see Robert J. Smith, "Comparative Studies in Anthropology of the Interrelations Between Social and Technological Change," Human Organization, Vol. 16 (Spring 1957), pp. 30-36.

  2. This approach to stimulating additional research ideas and proposals, incontrast to an exhaustive listing herein, should be understood in the light of the NASA research capability discussed in Chapter 2.

  3. See, for example, the whole issue of the American Psychologist, Vol. 10 (October 1955).




There are no footnotes in this chapter.


{NOTE: This page was a bad image from NASA. I will identify those portions that can’t be read. - Dan Woolman]




1. Key questions concerning television program content and the contingent (unreadable) . .ship between audience and broadcaster were at issue on a CBS-TV "The Great Challenge," April 10, 1960. Moderated by Howard K. Smith of CBS, the panel included Marguerite Higgins, of the New York Herald Tribune, Frank Pace, Jr., former Secretary of the Army; Fred W. (unreadable) director of CBS television programs; Leo Rosten, author and local magazine consultant; and Gilbert Seldes, Director, Annenberg School of Communications, University of Pennsylvania. Central to the discussions was the following question: Should programs be permitted to be (unreadable) to the lowest cormnon denominator, or should an effort be made (unreadable) leadership in raising standards? Some of the panel members were adamant in maintaining that television's role was to entertain and perhaps inform, but not to educate; it might not be proper to create climate adverse to science and education, but it was equally improper to attempt to tutor an adult public. The Spring 1960 issue of Daedalus contained a symposium on "Mass (unreadable) and Mass Media." From the views expressed, three basic positions emerged on what mass media is doing to mass society--optimistic, pessimisitic, ameliorative -- the last based on the view that what happens (unreadable) upon social response to the media challenge. Some vital questions of political responsibility were also raised; for example, if (unreadable) is an active responsibility, what role may the networks play in (unreadable) political questions?

2. See also Charles R. Wright, Mass Communications: A Sociological Perspective, Random House (1959), Chapters 4 and 5. -s been a significant lack of official comment by Soviet s as to their plans for communications satellites, but U.S. scientists who have had private conversations with Soviet space experts report keen interest in this subject and considerable evidence of work in this area. Soviet scientists indicate that they are centering their attention on synchronous (24-hr.) satellites in a 22,000 mi. high orbit, which are particularly suited to global coverage. They also speak of new types of passive reflectors which could be more effective than the metalized balloons that the National Aeronautics and Space Administration plans to launch." Robert Hotz, "Global Television Program," Aviation Week an , Vol. 73 (August 8, 1960), p. 21. [-4- / -5-]

3. The professional literature on this point is vast. For a good bibliography on the matter as well as an excellent summary of what is and is not known, see Raymond A. Bauer and Alice H. Bauer, "American Society and the Mass Media of Communication," to be published in the Journal of Social Issues early in 1961.

4. For greater detail about the systems, see House Hearings Before the Committee on Science and Astronautics, Satellites for World Communication, 86th Congress, First Session (karch 3-4, 1959); and House Staff Report of the Select Committee on Astronautics and Space Exploration, "Satellites as Communication Relays," Space Handbook Astronautics and its Applications, 86th Congress, First Session (1959), pp. 202-204.

5. "For instance, for useful satellite communication systems and for planetary probes one needs electronic equipment, in some cases microwave tubes, with years of assured (not average) life. Even life on the ground cannot in the end be sufficient, but it is at least necessary." John Pierce, "Space Fantasies," IRE Transactions, January 1960, pp. 3-5.

6. See UNESCO, World Communications, 3rd edition (1956), where the world need for 350 million radio receivers is discussed; and George A. Codding, Broadcastin , Mouton & Co. (UNESCO, 1959).

7. Technical data derived chiefly from the following: Joint Technical Advisory Committee, "Propagation Characteristics of the Radio Spectrum," Radio Spectrum Conservation, McGraw-Hill (1952); Senate Report (prepared by Edward Wenk, Library of Congress) for the Committee on Aeronautical and Space Sciences, "Technical Considerations in Radio Frequency Selection," Radio Frequency Control, 86th Congress, Second Session (1960). See also "Radio Propagation Characteristics," pp. 12-14, and "Factors Affecting Frequencies for Space Use," pp. 44-45, of preceding publication.

8. Directional gain refers to the definition of signal and is rated in "decibels" (dbs.). Local radio stations normally have a 30-40 db. gain. The directive gain factor of 20 dbs. at 30 mc/s increases to 40 dbs. at 3,000 mc/a and goes to 50 dbs. at 30,000 mc/s. Directional gain can be achieved at either or both the transmitting or receiving ends through antenna design. With directivity comes a narrowing radio beam width., which must then be zeroed-in upon for reception.

9. "The problems of international agreement would initially appear imponderable, considering the many conflicting and competing demands for radio service, the finite limits to the spectrum itself, the technical difficulties in monitoring and policing the airwaves, the global character of radiowave propagation, the consequent international aspect of frequency control, and the large number of different administrations concerned with frequency allocation." Radio Frequency Control in Space Telecommunications, p. 23 (see Note 7 for complete citation).

10. Based on an interview with a Federal Communications Commission official. On September 29, 1960, a press release from the Commission stated that "the Commission took into account the filings and oral testimony which resulted from its order of May 16, 1960, that reopened the record for receiving new data. It held that, in view of present uncertainties, specific allocations for space communication cannot be made at this time. In so doing, it pointed out that its separate Notice of Inquiry (Docket 13522) calls for comment by March 1, 1961, as to space communication needs on a longer range basis and this information will assist the Commission in preparing the United States position for future international conferences on the subject." ("Nonbroadcast and General Actions," Report No. 751, Federal Communications Commission, September 29, 1960.)

For another attitude on this matter, see Jay Holmes, "FCC Move May Kill World TV," Missiles and Rockets, Vol. 7 (October 17, 1960), pp. 10-11. [-7-]

11. "A passive satellite system which might be considered for commercial communication purposes is really not as good as an active repeater system because it is susceptible to use by encroaching outsiders. In other words, if Nation A establishes a series of space balloons as part of a basic reflector system and licenses some private organization to charge for messages or charge other nations and individuals on a per message basis, there is nothing to stop Nation B from utilizing the balloon satellites to transmit messages without any payments therefor-unless agreed to by international regulation.. this point ... reflects a real problem in the question of public versus private ownership on the one hand, against international ownership on the other." (Correspondence with Aaron B. Nadel, Defense Electronics Division, General Electric Company.

12. In Europe, broadcasting systems generally evolved as an extension to the airwaves from ground telecommunication networks. Thus, France, Portugal, Germany, Italy, and Luxembourg have licensed concessions comparable to their telephone and telegraph systems. Some European countries--namely, Finland, Belgium, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom--have set up public service monopolies with certain operational autonomy. In Belgium, the governing council includes representatives of the two major national groups, the Walloons and the Flemish, in addition to political and religious representation. Understandably, national representation is also characteristic of the Swiss policy control group. France, Denmark, and Norway have each set up a legal status similar to government departments with advisory policy bodies. in Great Britain, the Postmaster General has veto power to prevent the BBC from becoming a state within a state; it prohibits controversial topics, editorial opinions, political broadcasting, and commercial advertising.

Freedom of expression and laissez-faire are fundamental principles in United States broadcasting. The Federal Communications Commission may not restrict the free expression of licensees, provided the "public interest" is not violated. Views differ as to the proper balance between public service and private prerogative. In legal jargon, the very broad question of just what "public service" constitutes remains to be resolved within the authority vested in the Federal Communications Commission.

Most of Latin America has commercial broadcasting similar to that of the United States. Varying regulations emphasize the suppression of such abuses as libel, subversion, and the spreading of alarm or despondency. In Cuba profanity or slang is forbidden. In Colombia unofficial reports on earthquakes are banned, and in Mexico at least one fourth of the programs must be dedicated to Mexican music.

Canada's mixed system of private groups operating under public authority is somewhat similar to the situation in Britain'; the system is based upon an ideology to maintain cultural levels and provide service to minorities. Private broadcasting has been authorized to provide local service to remotely dispersed audiences under licenses that attempt to prevent cultural inundation by the United States networks. The description of systems in Europe and the Americas is summarized from George A. Codding, Broadcasting Without Barriers, Mouton & Co. (UNESCO, 1959), pp. 38-44 .

See also Charles R. Wright, "Alternative Systems of Mass Communications: Selected Case Studies, " Mass Communications: A Sociological Perspective, Random House (1959), pp. 18-23. Drawing from H. D. Lasswell on the structure and function of communications insociety, Wright comes up with the functional categories of (1) surveillance of the environment, (2) interpretation and prescription, and (3) transmission of culture, including entertainment. In broad terms, national philosophies may be viewed as falling into one of three groups:

(1) the public trust --those that place emphasis upon insuring a positive influence for the common good, as in the British and Canadian systems;
(2) laissez-faire --those that are content to permit broadcasters to pursuetheir own paths as long as they are not contrary to the public good, as in the United States;

(3) instrument of state control--those that seek to achieve conformity by social restructuring, as in the Communist countries.

13. Case studies may be appropriate for better understanding the nature of this problem. What was the rationale of TVA in providing low-cost power for regional development? How did TVA determine cost factors in selling electricity? On what basis is AEC power technology being developed in terms of costing power to eventual private consumers?

14. At issue between the government and the privately owned networks is the definition of "in the public interest." Supreme Court Justice Felix Frankfurter ruled in the 1943 NBC chain broadcasting case that the Federal Communications Commission is charged with securing the maximum benefit to all of the people. See Fernand Terron and Lucien Solal, Legislation for Press, Film and Radio, UNESCO (1951). The 1956 FCC report, Public Service Responsibilities of Broadcast Licensees, has apparently never been seriously implemented by enforcement authorities, according to an interview with a highly-placed member of the Federal, Communications Commission.

15. See paper by Seymour Melman, Associate Professor of Management Engineering, Columbia University, on "The Impact of the Patent System on Research," reprinted in House Hearings Before the Subcommittee on Patents and Scientific Inventions, Property Rights in Inventions Made Under Federal Space Research Contracts, 86th Congress, First Session, (August December 1959), pp. 913-974.


16. The 1950 Report of the President's Communications Policy Board recognized that special political, social, and economic factors pertained to the telecommunications field, since the rapid pace of growth and change in technologies affected the competitive position of the industry constituents, and investments were conditioned by both public and private considerations.

17. Senate Report of Proceedings, Hearings Held Before Committee on Interstate and Foreign Commerce, A Bill to Amend the Communications Act of 1934, as Amended, to Permit Consolidations or Merger of International Telegraph and Marine Carriers, and for Other Purposes, 86th Congress, First Session (March 20, 1959). The issues at the hearings were particularly pertinent to questions of technology and free competition, in each of which the national interest shares a stake. The international telegraph carriers argued that in order to compete for a fair share of the international communications market, new and expensive radio transmission techniques would have to be financed and developed. The Attorney General's office, contrary to most other government agencies, argued that the beat environment for technological innovation was a free competitive one. Pros and cons of merger also appeared in the 1950 Report of the President's Communications Policy Board. [-10-]

18. The three major sources of broadcast financing are (1) sponsoredadvertisement, (2) a listener's tax on receiving sets, and (3) direct state subsidy. These sources of financing act as major determinants in broad cast philosophy and program content. Commercial television is compelled by financial considerations to adopt a style of program that will attract a large, steady, predictable, average audience. Public-supported broadcasting, on the other hand, has an obligation to appeal to the fuller range of varied interests of many types of audience.

Gerald Beadle, Director of the television service of the British Broadcasting Corporation, speaking in New York, January 26, 1960, in comparing BBC with the commercially financed Independent Television Authority, stressed the issue of social force. With private commercial sponsorship, the competition for popularity is likely to prevail; where public interests control the media, the obligations to reflect national culture and to enlighten tend to predominate.

19. Sometimes "irrational" factors are determinants. According to George A. Codding, who is the author of a history of the International Telecommunications Union, nationalism influenced the spread of French transmitter nets from Paris to the Belgian and Swiss borders before internal nets were installed. As for "rational" factors, the number and dispersion of transmitters and receivers are chiefly conditioned by geography, ownership, and frequency allocation.

Great Britain was forced by radio interference from the Continent to seek an early international agreement on broadcast frequencies. Being limited to two high-power wave lengths for national coverage and recognizing the vital social, economic, and political consequences of the broadcast media, it was then decided to entrust both frequencies to a public corporation. After 1945, Germany found itself limited to the higher frequency band widths for radio and TV broadcasting. Conversion of transmitters and receivers to high-frequency FM was mandatory, but it has given Germany a good quality reception which has more than offset the high cost of conversion. See Charles R. Wright, Mass Communications: A Sociological Perspective, Random House (1959), p. 35.

20. The International Telecommunications Union is scheduled to hold a special plenary session on satellites and space communications in 1963. The conference was to be held earlier, but the USSR asked for postponement until it knew better which type of communication satellite would prove operative. (From an interview with George A. Codding.) [-11-]

21. "The international Telecommunications Union, some might think, should be able to provide the needed forum for policy-making and administration. The ITU for more than a century has been developing integration in technical standards, operating procedures, and rates of common carriers of communications by wire and radio. It also administers the policy on allocation of radio frequencies which is determined periodically by its more than 100 member nations. It is the United Nations' special agency for telecommunication affairs. It maintains close relations both with the UN and with other special agencies such as UNESCO, as well as with such regional organizations as the European Broadcasting Union and the international Radio
organization. It may well be that within the experience of the ITU and its associated organizations there may be found the elements of organization and policy which might be extended to the world-wide arena as a means of solving the present international problems of broadcasting, "The ITU, however, does not have the jurisdiction to tackle these problems in the use of radio frequencies once allocated.... It is important to note that the part to be played by the ITU in the use of outer space will be limited to technical and operational aspects of the new telecommunications means to be developed. As regards the possible purposes for which these means are used, the ITU is not responsible for contemplating any regulation or control." Dallas W. Smythe, "SpaceSatellite Broadcasting: Threat or Promise?" Illinois Business Review, Vol. 17 (June 1960),p. 7. '

22. In the United States the prevailing standard is 525 lines/60 frames per second; in the UK 405/50; in most of continental Europe 625/50; in France 819/50; Kinescope 35 mm. recording suggests an alternative for interchange in place of TV tapes; the quality is not as good as TV tapes, but it costs only $60 per hour as compared with $290 per hour for tape. Standards are constantly being improved and the conversion factor does not seem to be a foreseeable barrier with the advancing state of the art. The demand for rapid relay of TV video-tape has led to new techniques in converting tapes from one national system to another. [-12-]

A communications satellite would conceivably obviate the kind of routing that was necessary to transmit TV coverage on the Eisenhower arrival in Europe last December. From Paris, using the French television standard of 819/50, pictures traveled over the Euravision circuit, across the English Channel via radio, thence over BBC's super- , high frequency TV, and from there the pictures were converted on BBC equipment to American television standards of 525/60. The picture signals were then sent by radio to London Airport, where they were recorded on video magnetic tape and integrated with sound signals fed in from Paris. Resulting tapes were then flown to New York for direct transmission over the American networks.

It is pertinent to note that, even if it is feasible to receive U.S. TV signals on private receivers in the United States present technologies require more lines to the inch for good reception than present receivers are designed for. It is not clear, of course, whether the perceived advantages of satellite reception would provide sufficient demand for new receivers to make the whole operation profitable.

23. According to a United Press dispatch in the Washington Post and Times Herald (October 20, 1960), "Year-Old Explorer Won't Take Exit Cue." The satellite was supposed to go silent after one year; however, the silencer failed to operate and Explorer went on "braying its way around the world."

24. Interviews with appropriate persons in the United States Information Agency and the International Cooperation Administration indicate that research on the semantics of local languages is very necessary if communications programs are to be effective. Some sense of the magnitude of this problem is indicated by the following description of audiences in an African nation, as provided by a respondent from the Voice of America:

1. The intellectuals: university graduates, classified as "the erudite," speaking English; listen to the BBC Third Program. Estimated audience, 200, including 15 Africans.
2. The educated: high school graduates, speaking English and the vernacular; listen to public affairs programs and both western and native music. Estimated audience, I million Africans.
3. The literate: primary school education, speaking only the vernacular; interested in and perhaps listen to world news, how-to-do-it programs, and native music. Estimated audience, 4 million Africans.
4. The illiterate: Bush people without education, speaking only the vernacular, but difficult to communicate to even in vernacular; listen to tribal music only. Estimated audience 16 million Africans. [-13-]

25. Remarks of Jean D'Arcy as quoted in Dallas W. Smythe, Report to The President on Sabbatical Study , Institute of Communications Research, University of Illinois, pp. 15-16.

26. Moving across cultural lines is a major obstacle in extending Commercial broadcasting abroad, making it difficult to correlate sponsors and audience markets and to formulate suitable broadcasting material. CBS indicated that only one and a half hours of direct programming from the United States to Cuba has taken place in the last four years over the AT&T hookup between Miami and Havana. The question of commercial sponsorship in a Cuban market and language barriers seem to be major obstacles. Even in Canada, only four out of the eighty hours of weekly broadcasting are supported by American sponsors.

27. "One possible communications system designed to conform to general human patterns of work and recreation would have a single programmed multi-channel broadcasting and 'Courier' type active satellite with considerable storage capacity, This satellite would be positioned so as to maintain a 'dawn-dusk' orbit, thus passing near almost every point on earth at least once at the beginning of the local working day, when it might transmit general news and deliver privately addressed messages sent on passages over all parts of the world during the previous 24 hours; and again in the evening, when it might receive accounts of news generated during the day and messages to be relayed to addressees and transmit news and entertainment as appropriate. A single central command station located in one of the polar regions would be able to program the satellite appropriately at the start of each circuit round the earth, taking into account the particular centers of population or offices along the route and the messages to be delivered in the course of the forthcoming circuit.


"Such a system would not provide instant world-wide communications and, because signals would be stored and not repeated instantaneously, the capacity would be limited. Nevertheless, it might well handle a sizable number of those commercial messages, news items, or routine information services such as weather reports, which either are needed or are prepared at the beginning or end of the working day or during the evening entertainment hours and involve very broad or long-distance
distribution. Standard radio, television, or facsimile receivers at any point on earth would be able to receive the information broadcast directly as the satellite passed within range in the morning or evening, and, with appropriate equipment, government agencies, service industries, businesses, or individuals could send or receive suitably addressed messages. Such a system thus illustrates the possibility that new technology could not only be made to conform to man's prevailing behavior patterns but might permit a reintroduction of routines now regrettably lost (according to some critics), but first developed when all long-distance communications were received or dispatched with the arrival and departure of the mail train, the packet boat, or the postman proceeding on his appointed rounds." (Correspondence with Christopher Wright, Executive Director of the Council for Atomic Age Studies, Columbia University.)

28. Bell Laboratories now has under development, as an alternative to high-capacity/low-cost communications, a "waveguide" pipe capable of transmitting 200 TV or 200,000 voice channels; this system may eventually prove more economical than radio relay, and it is uninhibited by the natural phenomena limiting both atmospheric and space transmission.

29. "With radio and magazines (which get incredible distribution in the most remote places) and movies (ditto), to say nothing of television, we are getting into a completely new set of circumstances -- where the most uneducated people who speak no modern world language have nevertheless a picture of the world far from home and a sense of the style of different national or regional communication patterns and ideas for which they are by no means dependent on the views of educated people in their own country, or certainly not necessarily so, and whose judgment and sophistication about these matters may hardly be known to the educated who have little contact with rural or backward or tribal peoples in their own country. This is an unprecedented situation, where one has no way of knowing what is known, what the gaps are, what the interpretations are from any easy method of inspection. I suspect also that one would run into many variations of the problem we have here in interviewing and observing the so-called uneducated." (Correspondence with Dr. Rhoda Metraux, Associate Director of Project on the Factor of Allopsychic Orientation in Mental Health, American Museum of Natural History.)

30. A good statement of this attitude and the arguments for the use of communications satellites is to be found in "World-Wide Communication with Earth Satellites," by Dr. Henry Busignies and Louis Pollack, Signal, Vol. 14, (June 1960), pp. 32ff.

31. See, for example, Norbert Weiner, The Human Use Of Human Beings: Cybernetics and Society (revised ad.), Houghton Mifflin, 1954. Also see Louis J. Halle, "The Natural History of Man's Emergence Into Space," in International Political Implications of Activities in Outer Space, Joseph M. Goldsen, ed., RAND Corporation Report R-362-RC (1960), pp. 193208.

32. Long-time observers of the UN frequently point out that there is a definite tendency, especially at the Secretariat level, to become increasingly more identified with others from other nations working on the same problem.

33. As an example of remote data processing technology today, consider the following from the AT&T 1959 Annual Report: "Data-Phone service enables machines to talk to machines, using suitable parts of the same network over which people talk with people. Connections are put through just as telephone calls are, and equipment provided by the telephone company converts the signals from the business machines into a form which can be sent over the telephone network. Even the largest high-speed computers can exchange information in this way.... In addition to carrying data over the regular telephone network, we also use special 'broadband' circuits to send great quantities of data at high speeds. One such circuit today, for example, directly connects computer centers in different plants of a missile manufacturer; it will transmit as much information in 45 seconds as will be found in a 50,000-word book. There are also many military needs for transmitting data very fast." "Data Processing," AT&T Annual Report 1959, pp.7-9. See also Alfred R. Zipser, "Machines Talk to Each Other Over the Nation's Telephones," New York Times, October 16, 1960, Fl.

34. Some of the research being conducted by the Boston firm of Itek Corporation should provide good case study material on the possibilities for a library search code permitting creative scholarship.

35. The techniques developed by the American Management Association for "gaming" complex industrial and business decisions, using top businessmen as the players, might well be applied to this problem. See Elizabeth Marting, ad., Top Management_Decision Simulation: The AMA Approach, American Management Association (1957).

36. See, for example, Margaret Mead, New Lives for Old, Morrow (1956), especially Chapter 18; and Margaret Mead, ad., Cultural Patterns and Technical Change (UNESCO), Columbia University Press: International Documents Service (1953); reprinted by Mentor Books (June 1955).

37. "The secular evolution of a participant society appears to involve a regular sequence of three phases. Urbanization comes first, for cities alone have developed the complex of skills and resources which characterize the modern industrial economy. Within this urban matrix develop both of the attributes which distinguish the next two phases @- literacy and media growth. There is a close reciprocal relationship between these, for the literate develop the media which in turn spread literacy. But, historically, literacy performs the key function in the second phase. The capacity to read, at first acquired by relatively few people, equips them to perform the varied tasks required in the modernizing society. Not until the third phase, when the elaborate technology of industrial development is fairly well advanced, does a society begin to produce newspapers, radio networks, and motion pictures on a massive scale. This, in turn, accelerates the spread of literacy. out of this interaction develop those institutions of participation (e.g., voting) which we find in all advanced modern societies. For countries in transition today, these high correlation’s suggest that literacy and media participation may be considered as a supply-and-demand reciprocal in a communication market whose locus, at least in its historical inception, can only be urban." Daniel Lerner, The Passing of Traditional Society, Free Press (1958), p. 60.

38. See Cultural Patterns and Technical Change, Margaret Mead, ed., prepared for UNESCO and reprinted by Mentor Books (June 1955). Many organizations are doing work in these areas, including the PhelpsStdkes Foundation and the Society for the Investigation of Human Ecology.

39. See Note 1; also see Joseph T. Klepper, Effects of Mass Communications, Free Press (1960), Carl I. Hovland, "Effects of Mass Media of Communication," in Gardner Lindzey, ad., Handbook of Social Psychology, Addison-Wesley Press (1954), Part II, pp. 1062-1103, and Leo Bogart, The Age of Television, Ungar (1956).

40. "It is not hard to visualize the impact on peoples of the world of being able to watch on-the-spot deliberations of the United Nations, the U.S. Congress, the British Parliament, or the Supreme Soviet in hours of crisis. A global television system would also enable a nation to actually how the fruits of its economic system and its culture to millions of people scattered around the globe." Robert Hotz, "Global Television Program," Aviation Week and Space Technology, Vol. 73 (August 8, 1960), P. 21.
This is a typical statement of hope or assumption about the impact of TV. The fact is, of course, that it is very hard to "visualize the impact." In connection with this, see the issue of the Public opinion Quarterly referred to below (Note 42), especially the section entitled "Images, Definitions, and Audience Reactions in International Communications."

41. On the complex problem of changing biases through exposure to facts see Milton Rokeach, The Open and Closed Mind, Basic Books (1960), and Leon Festinger, Theory of Cognitive Dissonance, Row, Peterson (1957).

42. As an example of the power of communications under the right circumstances to alter authority patterns, see Daniel Lerner, "The Grocer and the Chief: A Parable" in The Passing of Traditional Society, Free Press (1958). Also see the special issue of Public Opinion Quarterly , Vol. 20 (Spring 1956), devoted to "Studies in Political Communication," with Ithiel de Sola Pool as guest editor.


43. When this matter was discussed in some detail with two members of the Economic Development Institute of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, they ventured the opinion that closed circuit international TV could expand the type of activity presently under way in which EDI invites senior ministerial officials from the underdeveloped areas for a six-month period of seminars designed to provide an integrated approach to economic development problems.

44. In this regard, it is interesting to note the growing sentiment that national nomination conventions may have outlived their usefulness because of the several effects of television on the purposes and consequences of convention activities.

45. The research of such people as Alex Bavelas, particularly his studies conducted when he was at MIT and at the Bell Telephone Laboratories, the work of Harold Guetzkow and associates at Northwestern University, and research of the kind conducted by Robert F. Bales at the Department of Social Relations, Harvard University, would be most pertinent to a better understanding of these problems.