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IV. IMPLICATIONS OF A SPACE-DERIVED

WEATHER PREDICTING SYSTEM

1.     Space activities are expected to contribute in two ways to the development and maintenance of a world-wide system for accurate long­range and short-range weather forecasting: (a) information for improvements in meteorological theory and the routine observations necessary for its application will be provided by space probes and satellites; (b) theory development and application will require a correlative and interacting world-wide net of ground-based, lower­atmosphere data collecting, processing, and distributing facilities, for which communication satellites appear to offer the most feasible system for handling the expected vast amount of data. Once the ground facilities are established, which may be in the relatively near future, many nations may have access for the first time to systematic science-based forecasts similar to those presently available in regions using conventional forecast methods. Implications meriting research will presumably at a from the problems and opportunities inherent in the establishment and maintenance of the world-wide, integrated satellite and ground-based system, and in the uses made of the forecasts. The degree of utility will depend in part on what other technological, social, and political developments have occurred by the time the capability is available.

 

Establishing and maintaining a world-wide weather organization

1.         A world-wide forecasting system will require the evolution of a globally standardized set of rules for the complex operations and negotiations involved. The increased emphasis thus placed on the interdependence of all components of world society Might well help diminish international friction. Nevertheless, the system's development period will probably take place amid some degree of the mutual national suspicion and economic and political competition that now pertain. Further, since weather information will continue to be important for all types of warfare -- including economic the exchange of weather data may be inhibited under some circumstances. If potential inhibiting circumstances can be delineated through research, it may be possible to anticipate and thus avoid them.

2.         The many decisions that must be made about the location of ground based facilities for collecting, processing, and distributing weather data imply the need for studying the potential legal, economic, and political complications. For example, who will pay for and control the installation and maintenance of the facilities? It is very probable that some countries would not wish to contribute to the effort during its developmental stage, while others might from the beginning consider participation highly desirable, especially if facilities could be installed within their borders. There may be conflicts between technical and political criteria concerning the “best” placements for facilities. Study of potential conflict factors might resolve them before the fact. Who, for instance, will make such decisions and on what bases? Are these to be national or multinational decisions, or should they be made by an international organization? If decisions are not to be made by individual nations, what is the appropriate role for the United States in facilitating the development of theory and practice? Given the military utility of weather data, what criteria should be used for evaluating the strategic cost and benefits of releasing specific weather information? How would various possible policies affect the various possible interests of specific nations?

3.         Once the alternatives of ownership, funding, and control have been clarified, negotiations must be undertaken to establish the operating organization, its standards of quality and equipment compatibility, and the procedures for handling sporadic, deliberate nonparticipation or continued noncompliance of members of the network. The negotiations will be subject to complex pressures arising from the differing motives, legal procedures, and political arrangements of the various nations participating in them. Systematic inquiry might valuably elucidate these factors and their relationship to negotiation alternatives.

4.         Highly trained meteorologists have been in short supply for some time, but many will be needed as well as many other personnel to operate equipment, develop theory, make local forecasts, and distribute them. People especially trained to translate weather forecasts into meaningful ideas for users unfamiliar with them will also be needed. Questions are thus implied that require research. Who, for example, will pay for the training of the needed personnel? Where will they be trained, and who will train them (teachers being in short supply)? What major changes in and additions to curriculum content will the developing field require? Some nations may prefer to use their scarce, talented manpower in other technological endeavors that they consider of higher priority than weather forecasting. Others may welcome participation as a way to train personnel in the general idiom of technology so that they would thereby also be useful for other high priority purposes. How, then, should the training and use of personnel for a weather system be planned so that it will aid in expanding the world's general supply of scientists and technicians?

 

Implications for weather control

1.     The possibility of a space-derived forecast system has aroused much discussion of relatively immediate advances in weather control.

However, with the exception of possible occasional experiments or a certain amount of localized, legally acceptable, rain-making, developments in weather control will probably depend on meteorological knowledge made available only through the gradual development of a weather theory adequate for worldwide, long-range forecasts. There may nevertheless be pressures for experimenting with such devices as nuclear explosions to disrupt typhoons and hurricanes. Conducting such experiments without jeopardizing human safety would involve international agreements. Preliminary research could help to prepare a basis for solving the collaborative problems as their nature became clearer.

 

Implications for product raisers

1.         Long-Range or seasonal forecasts will face the farmer and those who make farm policy with many decisions. Given a partially unfavorable forecast, for example, bow much land should be kept in use and what crops grown? What techniques might mitigate the weather effects? Associated decisions would have to do with the availability of easily obtained and adequate financial support when the direction of a prediction made it desirable or necessary to cover costs of seeds, fertilizer, equipment, stockpiling facilities, and the like. All these decisions imply an alteration in the behavior patterns of both farmers and government policy makers in tradition oriented agricultural areas. Changes in traditional farming patterns would eventually produce profound changes in distribution and marketing methods and in consumption patterns and government policy. Much careful research and advanced planning will be necessary if full advantage is to be taken of the opportunities for raising standards of living, and if the disruption attendant on the transition is to be minimized.

2.         Methods must be developed for handling such consequences of responses to forecasts as bumper crops of the same product being grown I several different parts of the world. International crop planning and allocation procedures may be necessary to balance out economic and substantive inequities and otherwise assure the distribution of supply in keeping with the immediate demand and with longer-range storage requirements. Such international arrangements, implying major changes in a nation's policies regarding its domestic farming, would require much anticipatory study.

 

Implications for tourism and related recreation industries

1.     For recreation facilities, the main consequence of both short- and long­range weather forecasts may be a sharp increase in overloads and underloads. The forecast of a bad season for regions having tourist­dependent economies the French Riviera, parts of Florida, Switzerland, etc., -- could have major national or regional economic repercussions, and could strain international relations. Economic reorganization of the tourist and recreation industries might become necessary, so that facilities unused because of expected bad weather could be balanced against facilities where there is expectation of good weather. Other questions raised concern the role of the government in mitigating major national and regional imbalances, given its part in providing the forecasts. All of these problems will benefit from research.

Implications for water resources and fossil fuel utilization

1.         Seasonal forecasts would permit optimum use of multiple-purpose dams that now retain part of their capacity to cope with unforeseen seasonal over loads or underloads.

2.         More efficient use and realistic stockpiling of fossil fuels would be permitted if seasonal demands are known in advance. With urban and population growth, the world demand for fuel is continually increasing; an advanced planning capability should encourage world-wide programming of fuel allocations, both to fill routine needs and to alleviate suffering in times of weather emergency. Important questions of pricing, production regulation, and national and private profit interests arising in this connection merit study.

Weather disaster mitigation

1.         Many nations may relatively soon have the advantage of hurricane and typhoon forecasts, if Tiros-type satellite observations prove to be as useful as it is believed they can be. Such disasters as droughts and major floods may eventually be predicted also.

2.         Providing forecasts of imminent disaster does not by any means assure that they will be acted on. Emergency action depends on the physical resources available, the motives of the leadership that must decide what information to make available to the public, the psychology of the public about action, and the time available. Quick and productive reactions to disaster forecasts require a certain amount of education of both leadership and the public. Much more research is needed on how to educate for disaster, especially in the many world cultures where a traditional fatalism has prevailed. Decisions must also be made about what expenses any community or any nation wishes to sustain to be prepared for infrequent disasters such as tornadoes or hurricanes; these decisions would benefit from cost and benefits studies and operations research on preparation arrangements.

3.         Long-Range forecasts of such lingering-effect disasters as drought and heavy flooding will confront involved nations with the need for preparations to cope with the people and institutions that would be displaced by or threatened during the disaster. In many nations this would require an organization of personnel and an allocation of resources -- both of which do not now exist or are needed for or absorbed by other activities. Governments warned publicly of disasters with which they have little competence for coping may be seriously embarrassed. This implies opportunities and problems for other nations in deciding bow and to what extent they would provide personnel and resources to mitigate the consequences of a disaster in another nation. The resolution of the many facets of these problems deserves intensive pursuit through systematic inquiry.

 

Implications for transportation

1.         More efficient use can be made of commercial transportation facilities if accurate forecasts make it possible to anticipate transportation needs as functions of the effects of weather patterns on clients' shipping plans.

2.         In nations with somewhat primitive transportation systems, weather forecasts would provide the opportunity to use weather-dependent transportation methods and routes more efficiently. This may also help to raise living standards and further the development of rationalized decision making and of the requisite technical and human systems to implement it. Research would be desirable into methods for helping these areas take advantage of the opportunities provided by the forecasts.

 

As a prerequisite for planning further research activities on the implications of the uses of weather forecasts study is necessary to determine:

•     The activities that will be most advantaged or disadvantaged by varying amounts of improved forecasts. Here it is necessary to consider the time at which improved forecasts are expected to be realized and the technological and social contingencies which may affect the degree of weather dependence. In particular, legal, political, economic, and cultural factors must be considered for their influence on the advantages and disadvantages of long- and short-range predictions.

 

In view of the likelihood that many nations will have access in the relatively neat future to forecasts of hurricanes and typhoons, via satellite observations, research should begin at once to determine:

•     What needs to be done and what can be done in other nations as well as the United States to prepare for various types of imminent disasters at various levels of destruction, in whatever time would be available. Here it is necessary to examine

(a) the communication facilities and organization required to provide the requisite information soon enough, and

(b) the organizational and personnel equipment and, possibly, the legal procedures required to cope with emergency action.

 

The ground-based facilities needed for developing better weather theory may of themselves provide reasonably good forecast in many areas. Since they may be installed relatively soon, and since such forecasts could have major effects on farming methods and product distribution and utilization, it is most desirable to begin now to plan activities to make the transition as comfortable and effective as possible. Basic to such plans will be research which will determine:

•     The extent to which the requirements for using science-based forecasts ate compatible with the perspectives and behavior of those who will directly use the ideas or methods and of those at higher levels who must approve the ideas or methods for use. Among factors of special interest with regard to product raiding methods and ideas are: the degree of accept ability of scientific statements as a basis for action; existing methods for making long-range forecasts; reactions to shifting the customary rhythms of crop processing behavior, and to both growing and eating alternative crops; bow directions or advice are taken from higher echelons; and what the definition of “qualified authorities” is.

 

The implications for national interests of supporting a national or international weather system are many. These, will take much study and t me to clarify. 'It is recommended that research be initiated to determine:

•     The relative advantages and disadvantages -- economic, political, cultural, and military -- of international, national, or nongovernmental control of all or parts of the theory development system and, eventually, the weather predicting system. What problems need to be resolved regarding ownership, funding, and staffing of facilities in each of these cases?

 

 

V. THE IMPLICATIONS OF TECHNOLOGICAL BY-PRODUCTS

 

1.         The term “by-products” is used here to define those technological items or methods whose development probably would not have occurred or would not have been accelerated to the present extent had space activities not existed, and only items meeting this definition are examined in this section. Many other products given glamour by being popularly called byproducts of the space effort are more logically ascribed to the general trend of technological invention.

2.         Even for the “legitimate” by-products, more importance seems in some cases to be claimed than is justified by h review of their implications. Better understanding is needed of the economic relationships between the derived products and the original products, and methods also need to be developed for recognizing whether by-product developments have or are likely to have really important social implications.

 

Derivation, uses, and implications

1.         Putting man in space will systematically expose him to great physical and emotional stress. Special methods, drugs and medicines, and equipment are being developed for measuring stress and possibly for coping with it. Although it is known that human capabilities are sometimes extraordinary under stress conditions, systematic information on the matter is sparse. The studies being made in relation to the Mercury astronauts contain important space by-products, in their potential for contributing to knowledge on this subject. They may also, especially if the information and new medical techniques they produce are applicable to the general public, change attitudes about subjecting man to stress, thereby generating basic ethical and moral questions, the resolution of which may have profound implication for man, both in space and on earth.

 

2.         Telemetry, the technique whereby the state of an object is sensed by electronic or mechanical devices, transformed into an electrical impulse, and transmitted to recording and analysis equipment, owes its recent rapid development almost entirely to the space effort. Given associated equipment, it could be used in any situation where information at a distance was required, thereby permitting new orders of human and physical control. Among the many potential uses of this space-stimulated by-product, its utility for the field of medicine is of special importance and interest. The possibility of conveying medical and emotional data to central computers via surgically imbedded microminiaturized telemetering equipment appears to be realizable. This could permit continuous two-way monitoring of a person's state of health whether he is in the hospital or ambulatory -- and release doctors to some extent for specialized work, thus helping to relieve the anticipated aggravation of the doctor shortage.

 

Such an approach to routine medical surveillance presents legal, political, moral, and ethical problems, which doubtless would be vigorously argued and which would benefit from careful study. An extension of this application of telemetering devices involves monitoring emotional states by obtaining the physiological information that is associated with them. The process would be useful for psychiatric therapy. It could also be of use to institutions and governments in various ways, some of them perhaps not acceptable to the democratic ethic. There are profound moral implications inherent in the possible applications of this space technology which deserve study to clarify the problems and opportunities involved.

One-likely consequence of making very broad use of telemetry (in association with computers and with other communications devices) will be an intensification of arguments on whether man can continue to be master of his machines. If preoccupation with the problem increases, attitudes may be affected to an extent that the possibilities of use would not be permitted full exploration.

 

3.     Of the power sources being developed for space craft, at least three could be used on earth. (a) Plasmas and magneto-hydrodynamic power would seem to have no new implications for the using environment. (b) Solar power could operate small devices, such as data recorders, in isolated areas (which thus would be helped to accumulate new knowledge) and low power appliances, such as small radios; it is limited as a power source, however, and storage is needed for night operation and cloudy days. (c) Nuclear-powered thermionic converters could provide isolated areas with more substantial amounts of power and do not need storage devices. Either of the latter two could be used in highly urbanized societies for operating equipment remotely and reliably, but they probably have no special implications for change except as the power sources for telemetry equipment. In underdeveloped areas their highly compact and reliable characteristics might provide power sources without requiring major ground transport into the region as is usually the case when conventional power sources are used; the implications for social change under these circumstances deserve study.

 

4.     New plastics, alloys, and combinations of metals and plastics may compete strongly with conventional metals and other fabricating materials because of their extraordinary strength, lightness, and temperature resistance. But the demand for conventional ores may not be reduced, given the demands of increasing population and urbanization throughout the world. The social implications of the new materials include their potential for displacing extant technologies and manpower,

disrupting supporting communities from the mine to the fabrication plant, and changing the patterns of the international metals trade. Study will be necessary to assess the possible extent of changes thus produced, and, if the changes appear large, to discover means of coping with them.

 

5.         The need to develop highly reliable components for space activities is generating a variety of changes in manufacturing technology, quality control, equipment design, and utilization philosophies. Many of these changes are applicable to products for general use. Rightly reliable consumer products would free repair and service personnel for other tasks. Moreover, materials now applied to the replacement of short-lived components would be available for other use. Such changes would provide many opportunities as well as problems for consumption­oriented economies, especially in the light of the developing nations aspirations for higher standards of living and the international competition for resources. Research on the interrelationship of these matters is therefore recommended. Reliable components also have important implications for bringing telecommunications to underdeveloped areas (see Section III).

 

 6.         The closed cycle ecological systems being evolved for maintaining human life during space travel by reprocessing biological waste into food, water, and air are applicable in principle to certain human situations on earth. However, within the twenty-year time span observed by this study, such systems would probably not outweigh the advantages of other sources of these necessary elements.

 

7.         The social and economic costs of rocket propulsion for humans and for freight (the costs for the latter including packaging, transport time to launching sites -- which must be distant from cities --'unpacking, and transhipping) need careful study before the implications, if any, can be evaluated. Research is also needed to ascertain whether there is significant utility in ever faster human transport if the world has easy telecommunications via satellite and reliable, comfortable jets. Aircraft braking and lifting rocket boosters would provide access to areas not now directly reachable by-jets, but the implications, if any, for society will not be clear until the plans for and need of such projects are further clarified.

 

8.         Given the anticipated development of precision guidance systems within the next twenty years, it is very possible that all kinds of vehicles could be so guided without human intervention. However, the legal and ethical problems in regard to responsibility in case o@-malfunction will need study. Possible personnel displacement may also present problems. Systems analyses studies will be needed, as well as research on means (if needed) for coping with personnel problems and on the relative merits of replacing a multifunctional human with complex and expensive guidance equipment.

Since known by-product implications may take on new importance rapidly and new by-products will be developing continuously, research should be begun now on:

•     Means for establishing, maintaining, and operating “watchdog” groups to alert and inform appropriate authorities and organizations to the foreseen or discovered applications and consequences of space technology by-products. Thus appropriate research or action can be undertaken to maximize the benefit to mankind.

Because of the potential importance of reliability to the operation of our consumer economy, study should determine:

•     By means of cost and benefits examination, the effects of increases in reliability at various steps in the production consumption sequence.

 

Since the long-range implications of telemetry uses may well be profoundly good or bad, research on the combined impact of telemetry, microminiaturization, and compact mobile power supplies should begin to:

•     Delineate as systematically as is now possible the specific economic, legal, social, and moral problems and opportunities implied in future society-machine relationships, so that opinion leaders and policy makers can be aware of what must be resolved and planned for before, during, and after major developments in this communication and control capability.

 

 

VI. IMPLICATIONS FOR GOVERNMENT OPERATIONS AND PERSONNEL USE

 

1.     Space activities require an extraordinarily large number and variety of scarce professional personnel and very large funds (funds also desired by other federal agencies and programs in science and technology). They divert public attention from and direct it to other government scientific efforts; they obscure cherished organizational distinctions between science and engineering, and basic research and applied; and they are important for international as well as national goals, and military as well as scientific and commercial goals. Thus, they have significant implications for a variety of agencies in the government, and in turn they may be vitally affected by these agencies. These implications are expressed as an imposing set of demands for efficient personnel utilization, complex organizational arrangements, and the resolution of ambiguous relationships between space, science and technology, and policy making. Much research on these problems will be necessary to understand and meet these demands.

 

Manpower implications

1.     NASA's needs for large numbers of highly specialized personnel put it in competition with industry and nonprofit institutions, which have similar needs, and all three groups compete with other social needs for these personnel. Efficient personnel use requires special study on how to train and up-date the experience of personnel associated with NASA as well as how to anticipate the more complex training requirements for new personnel for the years ahead. Certain very important experience and training can only be acquired in the field environment, where the research, construction, Sand launching of space activities are actually under way. Since there are relatively few such environments, new legal and procedural means may have to be devised for exposing professional personnel to requisite experiences by circulating them within NASA and among other involved government agencies, and perhaps even among industries and nonprofit institutions.

 

2.         Motivational factors that help to attract appropriate personnel include salaries, opportunities for professional advancement and stimulation, ,and the special work environment required to stimulate research. Research and development activities clearly require different kinds of organizational structure and managerial philosophy from those which are traditional for other large-scale undertakings in industry and in government. The uncommon degree of complexity in space research and development, combined with the fact that a research manager usually has a different range of relevant knowledge and skill from that of the professional group he leads, emphasizes the importance of undertaking research to find alternatives to a command system for laboratory administration. At present, understanding is limited as to why professionals choose to join or leave government space research and development. Research can provide more comprehensive understanding.

 

3.         Efficient planning for space activity manpower needs requires studies providing methods for obtaining data on the types and numbers of personnel that might be available now and that will be needed in the future. Present manpower directories are inadequate in their coverage. NASA and other government agencies with complementary and supplementary personnel interests have need of a formal means for collecting and sharing knowledge about potentially available personnel and of a cooperative plan for their efficient use. Appropriate studies are necessary to meet this need.

 

4.         Long-Range planning on space activity manpower needs would help to assure that the right number of students could be encouraged to seek careers in specific professional fields applicable to space activities. There is also a need to make balanced use of scarce human resources between this area and other fields of great social importance. In view of NASA's longer-range personnel needs, the implications of space activities for career aspirations in the younger generations are especially important to study. The glamour of space activities and the play given them in newspapers and magazines may affect the attitudes of parents, adolescents, and career advisers toward these career possibilities compared to those of other areas, but study is needed to understand how information and sources of advice finally affect career choices. There is also a need to examine and indicate academic training requirements for space activity careers, in view of the special demands placed on such training by the very rapid and complex technological advances characteristic of the field.

 

Organization

NASA's wide-ranging needs and impacts present it with problems of organizational coordination, competition, and cooperation with other agencies which are at once new and at the same time characteristic of the conflicts always inherent in complex organizations. The problems are especially complicated by the large variations in size, political power, monetary resources, types of functions, and personnel composition of other government organizations having interests that are

complementary or supplementary to NASA’s.

 

2.         Because of the growing costs and requirements for specialized resources for space programs, it will be worth while to explore means for more effective coordination and cooperation between agencies having related interests with NASA. For example, developmental, operational, jurisdictional, and policy considerations in connection with present and future specific space activities will involve the U.S. Weather Bureau, the FCC, Office of Civilian Defense Mobilization, the Department of Agriculture, the Department of State, the Defense Department, etc. Careful study will be necessary to discover the best means for arranging functions between agencies. Wasteful jurisdictional disputes over the control of related science and technology development can be expected unless research reveals means to avoid them.

 

3.         If space activities expand and some development and launching facilities are established independently of military reservations, state regulations regarding siting and control of dangerous space operations or health hazards may affect space activity planning. States may promote testing, launching, and research facilities for space activities to attract and retain academic personnel and bring good students to the universities, and as inducement to industry. All of these possibilities may present federal­state regulation and control problems as well as opportunities to expand space activities; study should be undertaken to anticipate and resolve the problems.

 

Implications for science advisory activities and government policy

1.         Space activities have become inextricably intertwined with science in general at the government policy making level and vice versa. This is not new to science or government, but it has received special emphasis as a result of the special and spectacular role of space activities in domestic and international government policies. Probably more than any other scientific and engineering area, the space effort has emphasized and dramatized the complex and unresolved problems of assigning priorities to competing and cooperating scientific and technological efforts. It has also emphasized that the problems inherent in the many roles played by the scientist in government -- pure scientist, government adviser, special pleader, promoter, everyday citizen -- have become confused in the scientist's own eyes, in the eyes of non-scientists with whom he must work at the policy levels of the government, and in the eyes of those outside of government who report an and interpret the interrelated activities of scientist and non-scientist policy makers.

2.         The role of the scientist as scientist and as citizen and its relation to his role as an adviser to the government is especially important in the space area, where national, international, and political factors become central to some policy positions, and where the scientist representing these positions may find himself in conflict with his personal values as a scientist.

3.         Confusions and differences of opinion about the proper and useful roles for and relationships between science advisers, science administrators, science advisory groups, and non-scientist policy planners and policy makers must necessarily interfere with the effective performance of their functions. Research will be necessary to clarify this situation and to provide a basis for remedying it.

 

Studies useful for policy planning to assure adequately trained personnel for NASA can be initiated by research to determine:

•     The present and foreseeable experience and training requirements for scientific personnel affiliated with space program in the government. What are the legal and procedural means by which personnel could be exposed to the requisite experience and training in such ways as to benefit-them and the government's activities in the space field mutually. Included should be examination of means for encouraging or discouraging turnover and circulation of personnel between and outside of government agencies as is appropriate.

 

As a first step toward increasing the opportunities for interagency cooperation and thereby the advancement of the scientific and peaceful space program, research should determine:

•     The possible advantages and disadvantages of particular cooperative and coordinated arrangements for the use of manpower, money, and physical resources between specific agencies having interests in present and anticipated space research, developments, and applications.

 

Understanding the complex relationship between career selection, career advice, and information about space activities will require, as one major input to the problem, research which will show trends about:

•     The evolving images in the minds of parents, teachers, career advisers, and young people, of the space scientist and engineer, and how these compare with the images of other possible career models. In particular, what values (e.g., craftsmanship, dedication) are perceived as involved in particular careers? Are these seen as attractive or unattractive? What knowledge, ignorance, events or experiences alter or emphasize the nature of the images held?

Preliminary to studies on alternative means for resolving the problems involved in utilizing science advisers and science administrators in policy making in regard to space activities, case-study research is necessary to determine:

•     The operating relationships between the science adviser, the science administrator, and their respective users in the area of space policy. Precisely in what ways do the missions and perspectives of the three groups complement or confound in specific circumstances, operating procedures, policy making, and administration?

 

 

VII. IMPLICATIONS FOR SPACE INDUSTRIES

 

1.     The high rate of change of space technology and the heavy government participation in stimulating, directing, and consuming this technology seem to have confronted some corporations, government, and other parts of society with economic, organizational, and social problems. Some of the problems may be new; some are old problem made acute by space activities; and some may be old problems exaggerated in the telling through the novelty of space activities. Much research will be required to clarify and resolve these problems, and the results may have significant implications for corporate philosophy and organization, government­industry relationships, and the allocation of certain national resources.

Many of the problems to be summarized derive from a background of military rockets and missilery rather than peaceful space activities. Differences in national purpose and, thereby, the allocation of national resources may affect the nature and importance of these problems as peaceful space efforts increase.

 

Corporate response to space activities

1.         Characteristics of present space enterprise affecting corporate outlooks about investments and risks are: negotiated profits from limited production of custom-made space equipment; high precontract competition costs from company-sponsored research and development and contract preparation costs; large proportions of professional personnel and corresponding problems in personnel management and utilization; and the need to continually adjust and evolve facilities to provide the capabilities for developing space equipment.

 

2.         Estimates about what investment to make and risks to take depend in part on what view is held of the future of space activities for peaceful uses. Some feel that quasi-production line quantities of stabilized components useful for a series of space activities will permit better profits and more traditional operational organization. Some take the view that the many technological alternatives for ambitious space efforts will provide research and development support for many firms. Others feel that the industry will evolve until a very few companies produce all the major components and, in the process, will gain the know-how which will assure them the next series of contracts, and so on. Research is necessary to make clearer the factors which are acting or may act -­tending to drive the evolutionary process one way or the other.

 

3.         One response to these evolutionary alternatives has been heavy investment in broad-ranging research and development facilities intended to supply ideas for diversification into new markets, as well as to develop space-related items and ideas which will put the find, at the forefront of a new government-supported technological wave. These R&D activities pose three important questions needing study to understand their consequences.

a.     Who should own the rights to developments produced under government funds -- and, if the government is the owner, how can it be sure it receives all pertinent information?

b.     What research should the government do in-house and how much on contract to support and take advantage of these private capabilities, and what is the optimum mix of outside multipurpose R&D facilities to special purpose facilities?

c.     What are the consequences for the over-all quality of industrial performance -- and for the needs of the rest o% society -- of competition for scarce personnel “stockpiled” for capability demonstrating purposes as well as for doing wide-ranging R&D?

 

4.         Under the prime contractor system, there is a question of whether small firms can compete and survive as the space industry evolves. Limited staffs, intermittent roles, small profits, and small financial resources, all seem to confront the small firms with special difficulties in the space field. These difficulties deserve clarifying study so that possible solutions could be suggested.

 

 5.         Government-industry R&D cost-sharing and public finance policy would benefit from research providing better measures of corporate costs and profits over the long run, which also involve public funds. Research is also warranted to develop means for measuring performance efficiency in the absence of a price mechanism.

 

6.         One question assumes many guises in this area: what is the best way to allocate government and industrial funds for the development and production of space systems in the absence of conventional market relationships? The negotiated contract is not unique to space activities, but the use of this form of cost arrangement presents special problems in reconciling industries' interests in higher profits with the national interests in what is advisable in space activities.

 

Personnel utilization

1.         Space activities use large numbers of engineers, scientists, and managers. Their special capabilities and the organizational problems of complex team activities involve managerial and personnel relations problems needing much more study to resolve them. In particular, research is necessary on means for operating complex research operators in a manner that will induce high levels of creativity. Certain rates of turnover and of circulation between industry and other types of research environments may improve or degrade creative quality; study of this point should help clarify it.

 

2.         Recruiting enough craftsmen with “watchmaker” quality standards or motivating workers to produce that quality of work may be a sufficient problem “hat it would be useful to conduct studies on means for improving the requisite motivation and performance among workers building space equipment.

 

3.         There will be great competition for high-quality professional personnel in future years, since they will also be wanted by other industries and for other socially pressing areas. In view of these other needs and in view of the expected scope of future space R&D, much careful study is needed to determine whether there will be sufficient numbers of high quality professional personnel to fill later personnel utilization goals. Excessive competition with universities and nonprofit research organizations may weaken necessary teaching and institutional research, thus jeopardizing the general state of social development as well as the supply of new high­class personnel for the space industry. However, intensive industry recruiting and competition for personnel may stimulate more people to become scientists and engineers and encourage quality attitudes toward craftsmanship. Study of these matters is well worth while, so that allocation needs, trends, and other implications may be better understood.

 

Government and industry relations

1.     Government regulations that are related to space firms include the franchising of activities such as satellite operations and launchings. Sharing regulatory responsibilities between states and the federal government is also possible (see Section VI). Also involved are regulations concerning international inspection, safety standards and traffic control (including those for launching and recovery areas), noise and radio frequencies, and indemnity liabilities. These and other potential regulatory actions will require study to make them adjustable to the changing opportunities in space activities while still providing the needed public protection.

 

2.     Patent policy problems are not unique to space activities, but they have been emphasized by them. NASA so far owns the ideas developed under government contract (subject to waiver of these rights), but industry feels the ideas should be theirs for private exploitation, partially to compensate for the small return on space R&D. The patent problem is nevertheless larger than this important issue, and needs to be clarified by further study

so that effective solutions may possibly be supplied. For example, since the federal government itself is a major stimulator of space innovation, how important are patents now for the purpose they were originally intended to serve? To what extent has dissemination of new knowledge, and hence the exploitation of new technology for the benefit of the United States, been helped or hindered by the patent system? What have been the effects on scientists and engineers who prefer more professionally straightforward means for disseminating new knowledge which they have acquired?

3.         Some claim that space enterprise will encourage larger economic units, and in some cases, the pooling of capabilities. Already, exchanges of scientific and engineering information necessary for R&D make questions of collusion in restraint of trade difficult to resolve. The general question arises of how much reliance needs be put on competition or regulation, and how much can be accomplished through the government’s own purchasing policies. Study is recommended on the relation of antitrust philosophy to the needs of space developments so that the nation is able to protect its interests in both areas.

4.         The European defense budget, other foreign markets, overseas manufacturing costs, and the opportunities to benefit from foreign professional competencies are contributing to American industrial space activity outside the United States. However, commercial goals and foreign policy goals may not ,always be congruent in this area, given space activity's close relations to military activities and other national policies. On the other hand, it may be that in such areas as communications satellites, it would be in the national interest to support them, as it was in the national interest to aid our world maritime and airpower positions. The implications of the interplay of these private and public interests will be well worth studying for the insight they can provide for planning to assist the goals of all concerned.

 

As a basis for understanding the implications of more specific aspects of space industry problems and opportunities, and as a stimulus for tile development of needed measures for designing efficient R&D organizations, research is recommended which will:

•     Examine the history of technological change in an environment of government participation to

(a) try to discover tendencies and directions in corporate adjustmentto such change and

(b) see if such discoveries can be applied to understanding andanticipating present and future changes in the space industry.

 

In applying (b), study is necessary to attempt to foresee the factors which will contribute to the eventual thinning down or expansion of the number and variety of organizations producing prime space activity products. At least a preliminary study is in order on the advantages and disadvantages of various levels and kinds of apportionment of R&D between the space firms and NASA and the advantages and disadvantages of various mixes of multipurpose R&D facilities and special-purpose facilities.

 

Because regulation is related to many aspects of government-industry space activities-and to policy planning, and because of its importance in forwarding peaceful space activities and its implications for society at large, a continuing research effort should be begun soon on:

•     The economic and political objectives of regulation of space activities. Major questions concern which space activities are to be regulated and what contingent factors are involved.