by Tatyana Koryagina
June 29, 2001
June 29, 2001, address to Duma official hearing
“On Measures To Ensure the
Development of the Russian Economy Under Conditions of a
Destabilization of the World Financial System.”
Dr. Koryagina is senior economist from the
Institute of Macroeconomic Research at the Russian
Ministry of Economic Development and Trade. Her speech
has been translated from Russian.
Subheads have been added.
Helga and I are making our
presentations, the attempts at intimidation, which we heard from
Mr. Zhirinovsky, notwithstanding. Although it should be
said, that as an individual, I did follow his advice in a
certain sense, insofar as when I was elected to the first State
Duma, I voluntarily refused to take my seat—but that was for
And maybe it really would be better for women to sit in the
kitchen, if it were not for the fact that our people so often
have to see so many idiots among the men coming across their
television screens, and if today's brilliant presentation by
Vladimir Volfovich had not been just as incoherent as
always. But, it's too bad he's not here and I have to talk
behind his back.
In a short presentation today, I shall try to sketch the
development of the research done by our group, which is a group
of independent experts studying the world financial crisis, but
in a more global context than merely financial.
In the Autumn of 1997, we were requested by a major industrial
finance group in Moscow, to draw up such an analysis. We
delivered our product to the client at the end of March 1998. In
the framework of our analysis, we made a three-level forecast.
Our first forecast was optimistic, and envisaged a devaluation
of the ruble, as we calculated, within a factor within the range
of one-and-a-half to two, by the Fall of 1998. Our middle
version suggested a three- to fourfold devaluation, and our most
pessimistic forecast suggested devaluation by a factor of five
It should be noted that our clients, who were quite
well-qualified people—otherwise they wouldn't have ordered such
a study in the first place—were skeptical about even our most
optimistic prognosis. By June , however, when I had
occasion to speak at an open practical-scientific conference,
organized by the Ministry of Internal Affairs at the
Institute for Combating Organized Crime, I limited myself to
outlining only the pessimistic version, i.e., a devaluation of
the ruble by a factor of five to seven that Autumn.
To say that the audience was
shocked, would be to put it mildly. During the first half of the
day, I was sitting at the dais, but after my speech, they were
scared to invite me back up to the dais, although the rest of
the colleagues, who had been sitting next to me, were still
there. I was denounced in the mass media.
Why did I need to discuss only the pessimistic version?
the cabinet had been broken, and Mr. Kiriyenko was named
Prime Minister. For us, as analysts, this means that history was
picking up the pace, and that events would be unfolding in the
relatively graver ways we had identified, and possibly somewhat
sooner, than our concept of a "black Autumn." And, so it
happened. True, it was close to September—but still in August.
The figure of Kiriyenko was worked up quite splendidly,
by the forces, who were playing out this scenario. This person
was rather widely dubbed on TV, "The kinder-surprise." We called
him a talking head, or a talking parrot. This is a totally
peremptory person, absolutely sure of himself, who knows
absolutely everything about everything. Almost like Vladimir
Volfovich, one might say. Although Vladimir Volfovich is
still smarter than Kiriyenko, it seems to me—a bit deeper.
In the framework of that June  conference, I hesitated to
name the person, on whose behalf the game was being played.
Literally ten days after my speech to our policemen, I was
invited to appear on REN TV, where I again laid out the
pessimistic "black Autumn" scenario, and said that we would have
a new Prime Minister by the end of Summer. And when all the
relevant events had taken place, and REN TV invited me again,
You seemed to have guessed that the default was going
to happen, but the Prime Minister hasn't changed. And I said,
"It's not yet evening."
Two days later, Kiriyenko was out.
Thus, one of the hypotheses about why this game was being
played, and which figures were acting in the open, was that the
beneficiary was Yevgeni Primakov.
The only unexpected element, when this person really did emerge
as the candidate for the premiership, was that Grigori
Yavlinsky was the first to bring him up. I have known
Grigori for a very long time, since our work together in
Nikolai Ivanovich Ryzhkov's working groups at Sosny. He is a
very cowardly person, who absolutely lacks his own point of
view. He is the original "floating exchange rate"—but a
political one, rather than for currency. Furthermore, and I say
this as a person who has been living her political life somewhat
in parallel with Grigori Yavlinsky—having sat with him, Gaidar,
and Volodya Orlov at the conference table in Sosny—it is the
case, that with Grisha Yavlinsky there always comes
There was the blood of the Pugo couple, and then some other
incidents. Therefore, this was a very frightening prospect. I
shall not go into details, but the fact that ultimately Putin
came to power, I consider to be positive.
Let me say a little bit, about why our forecast was so accurate,
down to the part of the month, even to the day, with the ruble
falling already in the first days of August 1998—threefold, and
then 4.3-fold. This was very close to the lower boundary of our
Many colleagues here know me, and that I have studied the
"shadow" economy of the Soviet Union and then Russia, in
parallel with studying the ordinary, normal economy. So, when I
was dragged by the ears into politics, as well, while studying
our domestic "shadow" economy and expanding that to the study of
the transnational "shadow" economy, I unavoidably landed in the
realm of analysis that is sometimes called conspiracy theory.
This is an analytical technique, a methodology, which makes it
possible to fine-tune research and quantitative evaluations,
both with respect to time, and with respect to certain other
kinds of parameters.
I shall not go in detail into the basis for our forecast, which
I shall now present to you. Just take my word for it, as some
colleagues in the Ministry of Internal Affairs audience did back
My forecast is that major events will unfold, once again, in
August. In a strange way, it seems to me that the date may even
be known. It will be on Aug. 19. I have provisionally called
this scenario, "Tidal Wave XXI," where XXI denotes the
new century, in Roman numerals.
Blow Will Hit the United States
The main blow will be inflicted on the United States of America.
My colleague [Andrei] Kobyakov said here, that his
analysis shows that the eye of the cyclone will be in America. I
would only add, that it will emerge there, but this will be done
Many of the preceding speakers mentioned financial figures, on
the magnitude of financial assets, which had reached around $400
trillion in 2000, as against $30 trillion world GDP, and on
capital flows. But it is consistently treated as unnecessary to
analyze who is transferring that money. Who is the non-resident,
with respect to the American economy? Where do these investments
come from? If here we bring in our supplementary analysis and
methodology, the picture becomes fairly clear, and can be
observed, including with respect to the persons involved.
Thus, I make this determination. It will be the United States
this time, and it will be a crisis developing at a different
rate than the one in 1997-98. At that time, the action was drawn
out. Here, it will be more of a precision strike. It will be
like the explosion of the Universe. And it will spread
throughout all continents.
Many governments will be swept away.
The monetary and financial system of the world will change.
In Russia, beyond a doubt, the free exchange of currency will be
shut down. And the approximately $100 billion, now circulating
in cash inside our country, will suddenly cause an enormous
shock to Russian citizens. (It should be mentioned that the
quantity of foreign currency, functioning in economic exchange
to transact deals, is 1.5 times the ruble money supply,
servicing economic activity.) It will be impossible to change
money. Those who have a lot of money (and I told this to our
policemen not long ago, at a follow-up conference held in May
2001) will use their greenbacks to wallpaper the bathroom, where
they'll be able to admire the portrait of a past President of
There will be a change of leadership in the U.S.A., and early
elections in Russia. By this Fall, there will be a new
Parliament, a different government, but the President will
remain the same. Insofar as I nevertheless fear to say too
much—and I could say very much—thank you for your attention.
God grant that my forecast turn out to be wrong.
May God grant that!
Knew in Advance, Encouraged Citizens to Cash Out Dollars
Dr. Alexandr Nemets
Monday, Sept. 17, 2001
Dr. Nemets is a consultant
to the American Foreign Policy Council (AFPC). An expert
in Chinese-Russian strategic-military alliance
development, he has spent the last several years
researching Chinese and Russian economic and military
issues. Dr. Nemets worked from 1986-92 at the Presidium
of Russian Academy of Sciences.
He immigrated to the
United States in December 1994.
Russian press accounts and other activities by the Russian
government this summer indicate that the Russian government knew in
advance that something would happen to America, including a
"financial attack" against the U.S. During the past three months,
Russian media and officials have encouraged citizens to cash out
U.S. dollars pending an economic collapse there after an "attack."
Currently, the dominant view of the media is that the terrorist
actions in New York City and Washington were just a "bolt of thunder
from the sky." Could it be? Yes, a well-organized group accomplished
these dastardly acts. But just how well organized was it?
Obviously, President Bush and Vice President Cheney
are targeting the powers behind these terrorist groups, the states
that give them safe harbor and backing. Sponsors of state terrorism
include Iran, Iraq, Libya, Cuba, North Korea, Sudan and Syria. Did
you know that all of these countries have very close ties with
Russia and her military/intelligence agencies?
Could it be that the Russians actually expected this in advance and
even counted on it, discussing the possible consequences?
My suspicions were raised this July and August as I scanned and
sifted through all of Russia's major newspapers. Considering
Russia's close ties to these terrorist countries, Russian activities
need close scrutiny.
Pravda Wrote of Financial 'Attack' on
Consider the July 12, 2001, Page One
report in Pravda – still considered the establishment voice of
Russia's old guard communists who control the military and
The Pravda article was entitled "Will the Dollar and America Fall
Down on August 19? That's the Opinion of Dr. Tatyana Koryagina,
Who Very [accurately] predicted the August Default in 1998."
This article struck me for several reasons. Major newspapers so
closely aligned with the government do not attempt to create panic
or fear in the public – unless the government wants this information
to be publicly aired. Also, a major newspaper would be reluctant to
print a major prediction for which it could be held accountable.
This Pravda article was published about the same time as another
strange event that took place in early July in the Russian State
Duma. The Duma held a conference entitled "On the measures to
provide the development of Russian economy in the environment of
destabilization of the world financial system."
The chairman of the Duma Commission on Economic Politics, Dr.
Sergei Glazyev, headed the hearings. Some prominent foreigners,
including Lyndon Larouche from the U.S. and Malaysian
Ambassador in Russia Yacha Baba, were among the participants.
Tatyana Koryagina made a statement at the end of hearings –
as a Russian expert in the shadow economy, shadow politics and
She is a senior research fellow in the Institute of Macroeconomic
Researches subordinated to the Russian Ministry of Economic
Development (Minekonom). The main theme of the Duma hearings was the
rapidly approaching economic crash of the United States. The
hearings focused on preparing recommendations for President Putin as
to what Russia should to do to soften the consequences of this
coming catastrophe. Pravda also detailed its own interview with Dr.
Here is an excerpt:
Pravda: All the participants at the
hearings stated that America is a huge financial pyramid which
will crash soon. Still, it is hard to understand how this could
happen in the first and richest country of the world – without a
war, without missile or bomb strikes?
Koryagina: Besides bombs and missiles, there are other kinds of
weaponry, much more destructive ones. ...
Pravda: Well, economic theory. But how it is possible for you to
give an exact date [for the U.S. crash] – August 19?
Koryagina: The U.S. is engaged in a mortal economic game. The
known history of civilization is merely the visible part of the
iceberg. There is a shadow economy, shadow politics and also a
shadow history, known to conspirologists. There are [unseen]
forces acting in the world, unstoppable for [most powerful]
countries and even continents.
Pravda: Just these forces intend to smash America on August 19?
Koryagina: There are international "super-state" and
"super-government" groups. In accordance with tradition, the
mystical and religious components play extremely important roles
in human history. One must take into account the shadow economy,
shadow politics and the religious component, while predicting
the development of the present financial situation.
Pravda: Still, I don't understand
what could be done to this giant country [the U.S.], whose
budget is calculated in the trillions of dollars.
Koryagina: It is possible to do anything to the U.S. ... whose
total debt has reached $26 trillion. Generally, the Western
economy is at the boiling point now. Shadow financial actives of
$300 trillion are hanging over the planet. At any moment, they
could fall on any stock exchange and cause panic and crash. The
recent crisis in Southeast Asia, which touched Russia, was a
Pravda: What is the sense of smashing just America?
Koryagina: The U.S. has been chosen as the object of financial
attack because the financial center of the planet is located
there. The effect will be maximal. The strike waves of economic
crisis will spread over the planet instantly and will remind us
of the blast of a huge nuclear bomb.
Pravda: Did Russia's crisis of 1998 have this religious-mystical
Koryagina: ... The Russian crisis of 1998 was preconditioned by
internal factors. Yeltsin's policy enlarged its consequences.
Now we have President Putin, and this is a good choice.
Pravda: What do we have to do now?
Koryagina: Recommendations, compiled by the Duma Commission of
Economic Politics after the recent Duma hearings, offer
instruction on what should be done to escape the consequences of
a world crisis inspired by a financial catastrophe in the U.S.
This document will be sent – or has already been sent – to
Pravda: What should Russian citizens do?
Koryagina: They should start changing their dollars for rubles.
President Putin and the Russian Central Bank are already taking
the necessary healthy measures. There are high chances that
after 19 August the ruble will become a very good currency.
Pravda: Why 19 August, say, and not the 21st?
Koryagina: Some fluctuation in this date is possible. Serious
forces are acting against THOSE WHO ARE NOW PREPARING THE ATTACK
ON THE UNITED STATES [emphasis added]. August, with very high
probability, will bring the financial catastrophe to the U.S.
... The last 10 days of August have especial importance from a
religious-sensible point of view.
[End of excerpt]
It is important to note that this story
was not an isolated one, or a cute, human interest story as one may
find occasionally on the cover of the Wall Street Journal. It was a
serious news report, and story, discussed widely in Russia,
including on national TV programs. The thrust of the story was that
Russian officials were strongly encouraging Russian citizens to cash
out the U.S. dollar.
It is also important to understand that Dr. Koryagina is one
of the leading economists in a Russian social group which, from the
very beginning, has fiercely opposed "radical economic reform" in
Russia. She is a firm supporter of President Putin.
She and her network actively support Putin, especially his foreign
policy aimed at the diminishing America's global role. In
particular, they support Putin's policy of engagement of Iran, Iraq
and other nations of concern. Dr. Koryagina herself should be
considered as an insightful, well-connected and well-informed
person. Dr. Koryagina says much about the invisible and unstoppable
"international mystical-religious forces" preparing an attack on the
It looks like she knows the real nature of these forces and tries to
disguise them in a "conspiratorial fog." She is sure that such an
attack or strike of some kind – sudden and effective – will soon
take place, and will cause panic and an ensuing crash of the U.S.
financial system and the world financial system, already unstable.
However, Dr. Koryagina evidently does not know the exact mechanism
of the attack.
Duma Warned Citizens to Cash Out
The hearings in the Duma, which has become a rubber stump for
President Putin, have been inspired, without doubt, by the Kremlin,
"taking the necessary healthy measures" in advance of a U.S. crash
and world crisis.
The Kremlin clearly is thinking how it should operate in the "new
world" after the expected U.S. crash. It is my belief that the
Kremlin provided Dr. Koryagina with a very small part of its
information on the forthcoming attack against the U.S.
Another article on this same theme was published by Pravda on July
17, 2001. It was an interview with Chairman of the Duma Commission
on Economic Politics Dr. Sergei Glazyev, one of the most
prominent Russian economists.
The article was entitled "The Dollar and the U.S. Could Fall at Any
Dr. Glazyev, in his answers, did not mention the forces preparing an
attack on the U.S. and its financial system. He merely discussed the
forms and scales of the forthcoming financial catastrophe in the
U.S. and its consequences for Russia – mostly beneficial ones if the
necessary measures are taken in advance.
In particular, like Dr. Koryagina, Dr. Glazyev advised the Russian
public to change dollars for rubles and predicted that "the ruble
will become the reserve currency for Eurasia, particularly in trade
with China and India."
Third Article, More Media
Pravda published a third article on this theme on 31 July-1 August
2001. This article, called "The Dollar and the U.S. Will Fall," was
in the form of an interview with the Malaysian ambassador in Russia.
Other Moscow newspapers published articles of this kind also.
As a result, New York's Russian-language TV channel in early August
was forced to state that "the Moscow rumors are ungrounded." Within
a few days the public forgot all about this story. The tone of
Moscow economists predicting the crash of the U.S.
financial-economic system is confident and somewhat delightful:
"Finally, it is going to happen!"
They are not only discussing the future, they are evidently trying
to issue a self-fulfilling prophecy, transforming this future into
the present. This is because the prospects described in the above
articles are extremely attractive for the Russian elite for the
It will become possible to pay off
Russia's huge foreign debts with devalued dollars; it would be
really easy enough if oil prices jumped to $100 per barrel or
Russia would become really equal
among a weakened G-8 group of nations.
Investment conditions in Russia
would become really attractive in comparison to the bleak global
background. Russia could become the goal of huge foreign
If the U.S. military might is
undermined (and it might be, if the financial system collapses),
Russia will regain its control over the former Soviet republics,
spread it to the Balkans and reacquire its former super-empire
Such a prize, such a temptation for the
criminal Russian "elite"! One small push, and such great booty!
While reading these articles, it is almost possible to visualize how
they are licking their lips with excitement.
So, those in Moscow had very serious reasons not to share
information with the U.S. about the coming attack on the latter – if
they indeed had such information.
Very likely they did, and the maximum amount of information was
concentrated in the Kremlin. According to numerous statements
published by prominent U.S. economists after the tragedy, the time
and places of the attacks were chosen – more precisely, pretty well
calculated – as if the terrorists or those backing them had tried to
do their best to undermine the U.S. financial system and political
system and to cause a financial-economic crisis in the U.S.
There is some evidence that another targeted aircraft, a TWA plane
at JFK airport, did not take off and perhaps another crash was
thwarted. Was it intended for the New York Stock Exchange?
"It wasn't a healthy economy to
begin with, and this could be just enough to push us into a mild
recession and render a blow to consumer confidence," one of
these economists told the UPI.
"There has been a complete
disruption of passenger flights. Besides the airline industry,
tourism, retail and the shipping sectors will feel the negative
effects of Tuesday's attack. Tougher security measures now in
place at the nation's airports will increase shipping and travel
expenses that will be passed along to the consumer."
And the consumer confidence index, low
already, declined additionally.
However, those in Moscow very probably waited for much greater
effects. Remarkably, immediately after the events in New York and
Washington – at approximately 6 p.m. Moscow time – the dollar
exchange rate in Moscow street exchanges fell from 29 rubles to
15-20 rubles – as if the Moscow financial experts had awaited the
strikes or expected greater panic and collapse.
It is important to note that such a great fluctuation in the
exchange rate happened in no other world capital. The next day, the
dollar in Moscow gradually returned to its previous exchange rate.
A network of terrorist groups – mostly in the U.S. and Middle East –
merely provided the fingers to implement the terrorist strikes.
After all, Arab terrorist groups are supported by rogue nations –
Libya, Syria, Iran, Iraq and Sudan. These countries are "hands."
U.S. Needs to Look at Source
Now, if the U.S. and NATO forces carry out retaliatory strikes on
Afghanistan, the "hands" will be punished.
And where is the body, the heart
of the beast?
And who provides the advanced
military technology – including that needed for "special
actions" – to these nations of concern?
Who supports them in the U.N.?
Who demonstrates daily the
desire to diminish or undermine America's global influence?
Moscow and Beijing.
And Moscow, probably, is even more evil
and impudent. Let us consider the Moscow rulers. Yes, of course,
Putin immediately sent condolences to President Bush and
the American people. It should be taken into account here that in
September 1999 Putin conveniently used the apartment explosions in
Moscow and Volgodonsk (KGB-organized actions, in the opinion of most
of the Russian media and in the opinion of the author) to gain
supreme power in Russia.
Now the Kremlin is making statements about a "joint struggle against
world terrorism," about "the ties between the actions in New York
and the actions in Moscow in September 1999."
Indeed, these are probably closely tied to one another, and the same
forces are behind the actions in New York and Moscow. But what is
the real name of these forces?
The investigation should go to the
bottom of the barrel and provide the proper answer.