| 
			  
			  
			
			
  by Max Roser
 March 05, 
			2021
 from 
			OurWorldInData Website
 
 
 
 
			  
			
			 
 
 
 
			Who is 
			Considered Poor  
			in a Rich 
			Country?  
			  
			And what does 
			this Mean for  
			our 
			Understanding of Global Poverty? 
			  
			Our World in 
			Data presents  
			the data and 
			research to make progress  
			against the 
			world's largest problems. 
			This post draws on data and research
 
			discussed in our 
			entries on  
			Income 
			Inequality, Global Extreme Poverty  
			and Economic 
			Growth...
 
			  
			  
				
					
						
						
						Abstract:    
						The 
						extremely low poverty line that the UN relies on has the 
						advantage that it draws the attention to the very 
						poorest people in the world.    
						It 
						has the disadvantage that it ignores what is happening 
						to the incomes of the 90% of the world population who 
						live above the extreme poverty threshold. 
						The global poverty line that the UN relies on is based 
						on the national poverty lines in the world's poorest 
						countries.
   
						In 
						this article I ask what global poverty looks like if we 
						rely on the notions of poverty that are common in the 
						world's rich countries like Denmark, the US, or 
						Germany.    
						
						Based on the evidence I ask what our aspirations for the 
						future of global poverty reduction might be. 
			In every country of the world there are people living in poverty.
 
			  
			Even in the world's richest countries the poorest people often live 
			in poor housing and struggle to afford basic goods and services like 
			heating, transport, and healthy food for themselves and their 
			family.
 Those who are in monetary poverty also have much poorer living 
			conditions more broadly.
 
			  
			Even in a rich and relatively equal country 
			like Denmark middle-aged men who are among the poorest 20% of the 
			population die on average 9 years earlier than those among the 
			richest 20%. 1 
			  
			In Denmark a person who 
			lives on less than $30 per day is considered poor and it is the 
			declared goal of the country to reduce poverty relative to this 
			threshold. 2
 
				
					
					Countries 
					that are much poorer than Denmark also have the goal to 
					reduce poverty. 
					 
					  
					
					
					The United Nations declared the objective of
					ending 'extreme poverty' 
					to be the number 1 goal of the global Sustainable 
					Development Goals.
					 
					  
					
					
					According to the UN a person is considered to live in 
					extreme poverty when he or she is living on less than $1.90 
					per day, this is called the International Poverty Line.
					   
					According 
					to the latest global statistics about one in ten 
					people live in extreme poverty globally.
					3   
					If we know 
					that poverty is a large problem even in high income 
					countries like Denmark where the poverty line is set at 
					around $30 a day, why should we use an International Poverty 
					Line that is so extremely low to measure poverty globally?   
					It is the 
					reality of our extremely unequal world in which every 
					tenth person lives in extreme poverty that makes such an 
					extremely low poverty line necessary. Without having an 
					extremely low poverty line we would not be aware of the 
					fact that a large share of the world lives in such extreme 
					poverty.    
					The UN's 
					global poverty line is valuable because it draws attention 
					to the reality of extreme poverty in our world.   
					In a world 
					where the majority still lives on very low incomes it would 
					be wrong if the UN decided to measure global poverty solely 
					by a poverty line as high as the poverty line of Denmark.
					   
					It would 
					mean that the global statistics gloss over the extremely 
					large and important income differences among the poorest 
					billions in the world.    
					It would 
					mean that the difference between those who live on only $1 
					per day and those who have an income that is more than 
					20-times higher would be entirely disregarded. They would 
					all be considered poor, and the reality that some of them 
					are much poorer than others would be hidden.   
					Slightly 
					higher global poverty lines such as the poverty line of 
					$3.10 per day that Kate Raworth relies on in her 'Doughnut' 
					framework, or the poverty line of $7.40 per day that 
					anthropologist Jason Hickel uses in his work, or Bob Allen's 
					absolute poverty line based on minimal nutritional 
					requirements all have the same value.
					4   
					These low 
					poverty lines allow us to understand the material living 
					conditions of the poorest people in the world and have been 
					successful in drawing attention to the terrible depths of 
					poverty experienced by a large share of the world's 
					population.    
					The only 
					way to achieve these goals is to rely on extremely low 
					poverty lines.   
					Indeed 
					there is an argument for using an even lower poverty line.
					   
					To 
					understand what is happening to the very poorest in 
					the world, we need to look even lower than $1.90. This is 
					because one of the biggest failures of development is that 
					over the last decades the incomes of
					
					the very poorest people have not risen. 
					   
					A big part 
					of the reason for why this issue doesn't get discussed 
					enough is that the International Poverty Line we rely on is 
					too high to see this fact.       
				
					
					Yet, 
					only measuring global poverty relative to such 
					extremely low poverty lines has its own large downside.    
					By focusing 
					on an income threshold that is lower than the incomes of 90% 
					of the global population we are ignoring what is happening 
					to the majority of the world's population. This matters.
					   
					The 
					majority of the world do not live in extreme poverty
					
					anymore, but billions are nevertheless living in great 
					poverty still.   
					The obvious 
					solution to the problem that the majority of the world is 
					not considered by the International Poverty Line is to use 
					an additional poverty line. This is not a new idea.
					   
					One poverty 
					researcher who has made the argument for an additional 
					higher global poverty line based on the notions of poverty 
					in rich countries is Lant Pritchett you find it in his 
					short, yet widely-cited essay 'The case for a high 
					global poverty line' from eight years ago.
					5       
					 
					Defining 
					global poverty lines
				
					
					The 
					definition of poverty differs between countries. Poorer 
					countries set much lower poverty lines than richer 
					countries.
					6   
					This means 
					that if we were to simply rely on national poverty 
					definitions for a global measure of poverty we would end up 
					with a measurement framework in which the fact where 
					a person happens to live would determine whether they are 
					poor or not:  
						
						If we 
						would count as poor those who are defined nationally as 
						poor we would end up counting a person who lives on $20 
						per day as poor in a rich country, while at the same 
						time counting a person who lives on $2 as not-poor when 
						they happen to live in a very poor country. 
					One way out 
					of this problem is to set global poverty lines based on the 
					national definitions, but to apply them globally. 
					   
					This is how 
					the UN decided to define the International Poverty Line.   
					In order to 
					ground this global poverty line on something more than the 
					views of global poverty researchers, it is set based on the 
					existing definitions of poverty adopted in countries around 
					the world at the national level, but to avoid the problem 
					outlined above they apply the national poverty lines 
					globally.    
					As we 
					explain
					
					here in some detail, the $1.90 per day poverty line is 
					set to reflect the national poverty lines adopted in the 
					world's poorest countries.
					7   
					Applying 
					this poverty line globally means that a person who lives on 
					less than $1.90 per day is considered extremely poor no 
					matter where they live.   
					In recent 
					years the World Bank has applied this same methodology to 
					countries in the middle-income bracket, those countries with 
					a GNI per capita between $1000 and $12,500. 
					   
					Based on 
					the poverty lines in these countries they have set 
					additional global poverty lines at $3.20 and $5.50 per day, 
					which are now
					
					directly
					
					available via the World Bank statistics.
					8   
					What I want 
					to do here is to see what a global poverty line would be if 
					we rely on the notion of poverty in rich countries countries like Denmark, the US, or Germany.
					9 
					  
					That is what Pritchett suggested eight years ago: 
					 
						
						"Since 
						the origin of the [International Poverty Line] was just 
						to adopt as a global lower bound the poverty lines used 
						by the poorest countries, it symmetrically makes sense 
						to say that the global upper bound poverty line is based 
						on the poverty line used in rich countries."  
					The 
					definition of poverty is certainly not an easy ethical 
					question and thoughtful people disagree about it in ways 
					that have meaningful consequences for our understanding of 
					the world.    
					There are 
					also interesting proposals for hybrid poverty lines that 
					combine absolute and weakly-relative measures, see Ravallion 
					(2019) for a recent proposal.
					10   
					And I would 
					also recommend Tony Atkinson's last book 'Measuring 
					Poverty around the World' for an excellent recent 
					overview of the topic. 
				
			 
				
					
					The basics of global 
					poverty measurement  
						
							
								
									
										
										
										Throughout 
										this article and in global income and 
										expenditure data generally the 
										statisticians who produce these figures 
										are careful to make these numbers as 
										comparable as possible.    
										
										First, 
										many poorer people rely on subsistence 
										farming and do not have a monetary 
										income.    
										
										To take 
										this into account and make a fair 
										comparison of their living standards, 
										the statisticians that produce these 
										figures estimate the monetary value of 
										their home production and add it to 
										their income/expenditure.   
										
										Second, 
										price changes over time (inflation) and 
										price differences across countries are 
										both taken into account: all measures 
										are adjusted for differences in 
										purchasing power.
										11   
										
										To this 
										end incomes and expenditures are 
										expressed in so-called international 
										dollars. This is a hypothetical 
										currency that results from the price 
										adjustments across time and place.
										   
										
										An 
										international dollar is defined as 
										having the same purchasing power as one 
										US-$ in the US.  
											
											
											This means no 
										matter where in the world a person is 
										living on int. $30, they can buy the 
										goods and services that cost $30 in the 
										US.  
										
										None of 
										these adjustments are ever going to be 
										perfect, but in a world where price 
										differences are large it is important to 
										attempt to account for these differences 
										as well as possible, and this is what 
										these adjustments do.
										12   
										
										Throughout 
										this text I'm always adjusting incomes 
										for price changes over time and price 
										differences between countries in this 
										way. All dollar values discussed here 
										are presented in int. $; the UN does the 
										same for the $1.90 poverty line. 
										   
										
										Sometimes 
										I leave out 'international' as it is 
										awkward to repeat it all the time; but 
										every time I mention any $ amount in 
										this text I'm referring to 
										international-$ and not US-$.
										13 
			An additional higher poverty 
			line of $30 per day  
				
					
					Pritchett 
					made his proposal based on data and prices a decade ago and 
					so it is necessary to update his calculations. 
					   
					But I want 
					to go beyond Pritchett's approach and additionally provide a 
					number of other relevant comparisons to inform our 
					understanding of who is considered poor in a rich country.   
					By 
					following this idea I find that a poverty of 30 
					international-$ per day corresponds to the notion of poverty 
					in a rich country. In the following section I consider a 
					long number of benchmarks that made me arrive at this 
					poverty line.    
					Here is the 
					short summary of these comparisons: 
						
						
						
						
						
						
					 
					The range 
					of possible higher poverty lines based on richer countries 
					is wide, as the list of benchmarks suggests. 
					   
					At the 
					lower end I believe that it might be as low as $25 per day, 
					and on the higher end it might be as high as $40 or $50 per 
					day.    
					Just as 
					someone who lives on less than $1.90 per day is defined as
					extremely poor, a person who lives on less than $30 
					a day could be considered moderately poor.   
					A reality 
					check for any poverty line you might want to consider is to 
					ask yourself what you think about living on less than that 
					poverty line yourself. I lived on less than $30 per day 
					before and would consider myself poor if I'd fall back on 
					that income level again.   
					In the 
					following box you find the sources and calculations of the 
					benchmarks that led me to my $30 per poverty line proposal. 
					  
					  
					  
					  
				
					
					Who is considered poor in 
					rich countries? Poverty lines and other relevant benchmarks    
						
							
								
									
										
											
											
											
											Poverty lines in European countries  
											
											As 
											mentioned before most European 
											countries set their poverty line at 
											60% of the median income in the 
											country.    
											
											In his 
											original proposal Pritchett was 
											relying on this 60% of median 
											cut-off.   
											
											
											Calculating the poverty line for 
											European countries therefore means 
											that we look up their median income 
											and then multiply it by 0.6. This is 
											less straightforward than it might 
											first appear. The reason for that is 
											that there are many different income 
											concepts.    
											
											You 
											quickly realize that it is not easy 
											to define a person's income if you 
											ask yourself what your own income 
											is.  
												
												
												Do 
												you take government transfers 
												into account or not? 
												   
												
												Do 
												you take your partner's income 
												into account and divide it by 
												two?    
												
												
												How do you take into account 
												that you have a child for which 
												you need to pay? 
												 
											
											It is 
											possible to take these and many 
											other aspects into account and 
											arrive at useful statistics, but 
											various sensible ways of addressing 
											such questions lead to many 
											different income metrics. 
											   
											
											As 
											such, in comparing different poverty 
											thresholds across countries we have 
											to take care to avoid mixing 
											different income concepts as much as 
											possible.    
											
											One 
											important difference is how incomes 
											are adjusted for the size of the 
											household: whether the total 
											household income is simply divided 
											by the number of people (including 
											children) 'per capita' income or 
											whether some adjustment is made to 
											account for the fact that larger 
											households, and particularly 
											households with children, face lower 
											costs per person known as 'equivalised' 
											income.    
											
											
											Whereas EU countries, like other 
											rich countries, use equivalent 
											income to measure poverty, the UN's 
											measurement of global poverty is 
											based on a global dataset of per 
											capita incomes.    
											
											This 
											dataset is called
											
											PovcalNet, and it is this that 
											we must use in order to make 
											comparisons of poverty measures in 
											different countries according to the 
											same income concept.   
											
											In 
											this dataset we find the median 
											income for countries around the 
											world and we can take that median 
											income and then apply the logic on 
											which the European poverty lines are 
											based. In the extensive footnote 
											here you find more details and the 
											full calculations.
											14   
											
											As 
											high-income European countries I'm 
											referring to those European 
											countries, which
											
											according to the Eurostat statistics 
											had a higher income in 2019 than the 
											European average.    
											
											These 
											are the following countries: 
											 
												
												
												
												Finland, Netherlands, Belgium, 
												Sweden, Germany, France, 
												Iceland, Switzerland, Norway, 
												Luxembourg, Denmark, Austria, 
												Ireland, and the UK. 
											
											These 
											are the poverty lines for daily 
											income in a number of high-income 
											European countries (based on 60% of 
											the median incomes from PovcalNet): 
												
													
													
													
													
													Sweden: $29.40 per day
													
													
													
													Norway: $37.80 per day
													
													
													
													Austria: $31 per day
													
													
													
													UK: $25.04 per day
													
													
													
													Switzerland: $35.82 per day
													
													
													
													Germany: $28.35 per day
													
													
													
													France: $27.28 per day
													
													
													
													Luxembourg: $43.86 per day
													
													
													
													Finland: $27.22 per day
													
													
													
													Iceland: $31.64 per day
													
													
													
													Ireland: $24.68 per day
													
													
													
													Netherlands: $28.6 per day
													
													
													
													Belgium: $26.92 per day
													
													
													
													Denmark: $29.06 per day 
											
											The 
											span of poverty lines in these 
											countries ranges from $25 (for the 
											UK and Ireland) up to $38 (for 
											Norway). 
											  
											
											In the small country of 
											Luxembourg the poverty line is 
											higher.       
											
											The 
											poverty line in the US  
											
											Unlike 
											European countries, the US does not 
											set the poverty line in a relative 
											way. Instead the US poverty line 
											dates back to the work of Mollie Orshansky, an economist working for 
											the Social Security Administration 
											in the early 1960s. 
											   
											
											Since 
											then it has been of course revised 
											for price changes, but otherwise it 
											remained unchanged.   
											
											The US 
											poverty line is
											
											very often criticized as being 
											too low. Those that criticize the US 
											poverty line in that way therefore 
											suggest that the severity of poverty 
											in the US is understated in the 
											statistics.    
											
											How 
											high is the poverty line in the US? 
											In 2020 the poverty threshold for a 
											single person under 65 was 35 
											international-$ per day.
											15   
											
											Now 
											the problem with comparing this 
											poverty line with the global 
											statistics is again that the income 
											concept is different. The US 
											crucially relies on an equivalence 
											scale for adjusting the income 
											cutoff depending on the household 
											size.   
											
											An 
											alternative is to apply the same 
											concept that the Europeans are using 
											for their poverty line 
											determination. If the US would use 
											the 60% of median income definition 
											of poverty their poverty line would 
											be int. $32.8 per day.
											16   
											
											Very 
											close to the one-person poverty line 
											based on Orshansky's work.   
											
											A 
											somewhat comparable poverty line 
											based on these two approaches 
											therefore falls into the range of 
											around $33 to $35 per day. 
											   
											
											Within 
											the range of poverty lines in 
											European countries.       
										
										Survey results Below which income do 
										you consider a person poor?   
										
										The UN and 
										Pritchett rely on the existing poverty 
										lines in low-income and high-income 
										countries respectively to derive their 
										poverty lines. We can follow other 
										approaches too.    
										
										An obvious 
										one is to ask what people out there 
										believe:  
											
											
											Who is 
											considered poor in a high-income 
											country by people in high-income 
											countries? 
										
										For the 
										regular poverty report of the German 
										government, a survey is conducted that 
										asks Germans below which income level 
										they consider someone as poor. 
										   
										
										The latest 
										data is from the year 2015.
										17   
										
										The mean 
										answer given by the German population 
										for a cutoff below which a person is 
										considered poor was 947€ per month. In 
										international dollars per day this 
										corresponds to an income of 
										int. -$37.58.
										18   
											
											
											
											Universal Basic Income  
											
											
											
											Universal Basic Income 
											(UBI) is a political idea that is 
											becoming rapidly more popular. 
											  
											
											A 
											large UBI study in Germany called
											
											'Mein Grundeinkommen' sets 
											this income at €1200. In 
											international-$ this corresponds to 
											an income of int. $48.19 per 
											day.
											19     
											
											Social 
											security in Germany  
											
											
											Germany pays basic social care for 
											its citizens. This social security 
											payment is referred to as 'Hartz-IV'.  
											  
											
											How 
											much a person receives depends on 
											the particular circumstances of the 
											individual, but we can look at the 
											average payment. In 2018 a single 
											person
											
											received on average 783 Euro per 
											month.  
											  
											
											That corresponds to 
											int. -$30.78 per day.
											20     
											
											The 
											Roslings' suggest a cutoff of $32 
											per day  
											
											Anna 
											Rosling-Rönnlund, Ola Rosling and 
											Hans Rosling challenged the old 
											dichotomy between developed and 
											developing countries in their 
											bestselling book 'Factfulness'. 
											 
											  
											
											They argue that the old dichotomy 
											corresponds to a view of the world 
											that was accurate half a century ago 
											when a few countries were relatively 
											well-off, but most countries were 
											living in very
											
											poor conditions. 
											  
											
											Today, they say, 
											people around the world live on a 
											large spectrum. To reflect this 
											spectrum they proposed 4 income 
											levels. 
											  
											
											The 
											first cut-off corresponds to the 
											international poverty line (rounded 
											to int. $2 per day). The next income 
											cutoff they set at $8 per day, the 
											following one at $16 and the highest 
											one at int. $32 per day.     
											
											
											Kahneman's and Deaton's study of 
											income and emotional well-being  
											
											Nobel 
											laureates Daniel Kahneman and 
											Angus 
											Deaton published a famous study on 
											the link between life satisfaction 
											and income.
											2   
											
											The 
											authors find that higher incomes go 
											together with higher self-reported 
											life satisfaction, but for people's 
											self-reported emotional well-being 
											this is only true up to a certain 
											point: 
												
												
												
												the study finds that above 
												$75,000 further increases in 
												income do not correspond with 
												improvements in people's 
												emotional well-being a finding 
												that is often cited to argue 
												that additional economic growth 
												does not improve people's lives 
												in high-income countries.
												22 
										
										Again, the 
										income concept is not the same as that 
										in PovcalNet, and so comparisons with 
										the global data are not directly 
										possible.    
										
										But we can 
										ask what the daily income at which 
										emotional well-being supposedly levels 
										off corresponds to: $75,000 per year are
										int. $205 per day.   
										
										It is 
										certainly worth considering whether an 
										income up to which emotional well-being 
										increases could be taken as the basis 
										for a definition of poverty.  
										  
										
										A US 
										company reacted to the research finding 
										of Kahneman and Deaton by using it to 
										set the minimum wage in their company: 
										everyone in that company
										
										gets paid that salary.    
										
										For the 
										discussion of global poverty however it 
										might be considered as an even higher 
										poverty line, but for any practical 
										purpose in the world today the income 
										cutoff would be too high as only a very 
										small fraction of the world lives on 
										more than $75,000 per year. 
				
					 
					How many 
					people in the world live in poverty? 
				
					
					We have 
					seen that 10% of the world live in extreme poverty 
					as defined by the UN. How large is the share of the world 
					that lives in moderate poverty?   
					The latest 
					global data tells us that 85% of the world 
					population live on less than $30 per day.  
						
						These are 
					6.5 billion people...! 
					Relying on 
					a higher poverty line of $45 per day you find that 92% live 
					in poverty and using a lower poverty line of $20 per day you 
					find that 78% live in poverty.  
					  
					No matter which of these 
					poverty lines you might want to choose, at least 
					three-quarters of the world live in poverty.   
					All of this 
					data refers to pre-pandemic times...   
					The global 
					recession has certainly increased the share below any of 
					these cutoff points. As soon as the new data is available 
					you will find it on Our World in Data.   
					The chart 
					shows where in the world people are poor. If we would only 
					rely on the UN's extreme poverty line we would conclude that 
					barely anyone lives in poverty in high-income countries.
					   
					Relying on 
					higher poverty lines, this data here shows that even in 
					high-income countries there is a significant share of the 
					population that lives in poverty. No country, not even the 
					high-income countries, have eliminated poverty. 
					   
					There are 
					no 'developed countries' there is work to do for all.    
					But just as 
					clear from this data is the fact that in many world regions 
					the large majority of people are very poor. In Sub-Saharan 
					Africa about 40% of the population lives on less than $1.90 
					per day as the chart shows.    
					In all 
					regions outside of high-income countries more than 85% of 
					all people live in moderate poverty. 
			  
			  
			
			 
			  
			  
			  
			  
				
					 
					Countries in 
					which the majority do not live in poverty have only left 
					poverty behind in recent history 
				
					
					Two 
					centuries ago the global income distribution was very 
					different.  
					  
					Back then
					
					almost everyone in the world was living in extreme 
					poverty. Those places in which few people live in moderate 
					poverty today only left poverty behind in the very recent 
					past.    
					Denmark is 
					one of those places. The reason why the majority of people 
					in Denmark is not living in poverty is that the economic 
					inequality is low and the average income high.   
					The fact 
					that the inequality is low you can see on the map. It shows 
					an inequality measure called the Gini coefficient (explained
					
					here) which makes clear that Denmark is among the least 
					unequal countries in the world.   
					The reason 
					that the average income in Denmark is high is due to the 
					fact that average incomes have increased steadily for the 
					last two centuries, this long-term development is called 
					economic growth.    
					As the 
					historical data shows the average incomes in Denmark are 
					today more than 20-times higher than in the past.   
					You can add 
					any other country to this chart. By adding one of those 
					countries in which the majority lives in poverty like 
					Ethiopia you see just how large the differences in average 
					incomes are.   
					GDP per 
					capita is by far the most widely used measure of average 
					income and is yet another income concept from the two I 
					mentioned so far.
					23   
					It is a 
					more comprehensive measure of incomes and crucially takes 
					into account government expenditures.    
					For these 
					and other reasons (mentioned in the long footnote) you will 
					find that dividing GDP per capita by 365 days will let you 
					arrive at a higher value than the income that is determined 
					in household income surveys.
					24 
			  
			  
			  
			  
			  
			  
			  
			  
				
					 
					Billions of 
					people live in countries where average incomes are very low 
				
					
					The income 
					of every person depends on two factors, the average income 
					in the country they live in and the position that particular 
					person has in that country's income distribution. 
					   
					This chart 
					here shows the average income in countries around the world.
					   
					The height 
					of each bar represents the average daily income in a 
					country, the width of each country corresponds to the 
					country's population size.    
					I have 
					ordered the countries by income: 
						
						from 
						the poorest country on the very left (South Sudan where 
						the average person lives on $1.12 per day) to the 
						richest country on the very right (Luxembourg with an 
						average of $86 per day). 
					After two 
					centuries of economic growth the average income in Denmark 
					is now $57 per day today.    
					You find 
					the country far to the right in this chart, which tells you 
					that only very few countries in the world have such high 
					average incomes. The fact that the average income is far 
					higher than the poverty line tells us that the existing 
					poverty in Denmark discussed at the beginning of this post 
					is to a large extent the consequence of inequality.   
					What this 
					chart makes very clear is how low the average incomes in 
					many countries in the world are. The huge majority of the 
					world live in countries where the average income is 
					much lower than the poverty threshold in rich countries.
					   
					82% of the 
					world population live in countries where the mean income is 
					less than $20 per day. And where incomes are low, living 
					standards generally
					
					are poor.    
					As the last 
					chart below shows, a child that is born into a poorer 
					country must not just expect to live on a very low income, 
					but also faces a much higher risk of not staying alive at 
					all.   
					As I have
					
					said before, people are not poor because of who they 
					are, but because of where they are. 
					   
					This is why 
					economic growth is so important to leave poverty behind. By 
					far the most important difference between those people who 
					are not living in poverty and those who do is the average 
					income in the country that they live in this single factor 
					matters more for a person's income
					
					than all other factors taken together. 
					   
					The 
					increase of average income in a country is called economic 
					growth and for global poverty to decrease substantially 
					economic growth for the poorest billions of people is 
					necessary. 
			  
			  
			
			 
			  
			  
			  
			  
				
					 
					The future of 
					global poverty 
				
					
					The world 
					today is far away from the 'end of poverty' relative to 
					 
					any poverty definition.    
					After two 
					centuries of
					
					unprecedented progress against the very worst poverty it 
					is still the case that every tenth person lives on less than
					$1.90 per day.   
					As the 
					world has not even ended extreme poverty it is therefore 
					right to focus much of our attention on this very low 
					poverty cutoff; ending extreme poverty surely is a global 
					goal of great importance.    
					Yet at the 
					same time we should consider what our aspirations for the 
					future are. In the past our ancestors
					
					did not know that it is possible for a society to leave 
					widespread poverty behind. Today we are in a different 
					situation.    
					We know 
					from the reality of today's rich countries that widespread 
					poverty is not inevitable.    
					Because we 
					know that poverty relative to such higher cutoffs is not 
					inevitable I believe it would be wrong to limit the 
					ambitions to eradicating poverty based on the definition of 
					poverty in the very poorest countries.   
					What I take 
					away from this discussion are three insights: 
					 
						
						First, 
						we have seen from countries like Denmark that it is 
						possible to reduce poverty for an entire population 
						relative to a poverty line of about $30 per day. 
						   
						Second, 
						we have seen that these countries were extremely poor in 
						the past and were able to reduce poverty over the course 
						of the last few generations.    
						And 
						third we have seen that the huge majority of the world 
						is still living in great poverty, by any standard.
						 
					What this 
					suggests to me is that the history of global poverty 
					reduction has only just begun... 
			  
			  
			  
			  
			Endnotes
				
					
					
					Brønnum-Hansen 
					H, Foverskov E, Andersen IIncome inequality in life 
					expectancy and disability-free life expectancy in DenmarkJ 
					Epidemiol Community Health 2021;75:145-150.
					
					https://jech.bmj.com/content/75/2/145 
					
					
					For the 
					moment it is important to note that this $30 per day poverty 
					line is defined in international-$ and therefore comparable 
					with the 'International Poverty Line' discussed in the 
					following section. Much more details about how to compare 
					incomes across countries, the income concept here, and the 
					definition of this poverty line follows further below in 
					this text.
					
					Before the 
					pandemic
					
					9% lived below this poverty line. Due to the global 
					recession the share in extreme poverty is expected to
					
					increase this year to over 10%.
					
					Kate 
					Raworth (2017) A Doughnut for the Anthropocene: humanity's 
					compass in the 21st century. In The Lancet Planetary Health. 
					Volume 1, Issue 2, E48-E49, May 01, 2017. Open Access DOI:
					
					https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(17)30028-1 You find 
					the metrics that the Doughnut relies on
					
					in the Appendix here.Jason Hickel
					
					Could you live on $1.90 a day? That's the international 
					poverty line and
					
					here.
 Allen, Robert C.(201). Absolute Poverty: When 
					Necessity Displaces Desire. American Economic Review, 
					107 (12): 3690-3721.DOI: 10.1257/aer.20161080
					
					Lant 
					Pritchett (2013) Monitoring progress on poverty: the case 
					for a high global poverty line. Online here 
					
					
					https://www.odi.org/sites/odi.org.uk/files/odi-assets/publications-opinion-files/8440.pdf
					
					Jolliffe 
					and Prydz (2016)
					
					
					Specifically, the line is set at the average national 
					poverty line amongst 15 particular low-income countries. As 
					Jolliffe and Prydz (2016) demonstrate however, this is also 
					the average poverty line found among in the poorest quarter 
					of countries with available data, and also among countries 
					falling into the World Bank's low-income category.
					
					The study 
					on which these thresholds rely is Jolliffe, D., Prydz, E.B. 
					Estimating international poverty lines from comparable 
					national thresholds. J Econ Inequal 14, 185–198 (2016).
					
					https://doi.org/10.1007/s10888-016-9327-5 The 
					researchers also report an average high-income country 
					poverty line of $21.70 per day.High income countries in the World Bank framework are 
					however relatively poor compared to the countries that I'm 
					focusing on here the cutoff for a high-income country 
					according to the World Bank is $12,536, about a quarter of 
					the GNI of Germany and only a fifth of the US. Accordingly 
					the poverty cutoff is much lower than in those countries.
					
					Here you find the World Bank income classification cutoffs.
					
					The range 
					of incomes considered 'middle' and 'high' income countries 
					according to the World Bank are very low relative to rich 
					countries. High-income economies are those with a GNI per 
					capita of $12,536 or more. The range of middle-income 
					economies begins at a GNI per capita of $1,036. In this post 
					I want to rely on countries like Denmark; higher income 
					countries by any standard.
					
					Martin 
					Ravallion (2019)
					On Measuring 
					Global Poverty. NBER Working Paper 26211. DOI 
					10.3386/w26211
					
					This is 
					possible by relying on the work of the
					
					International Comparison Project, which monitors the 
					prices of goods and services around the world.
					
					Angus 
					Deaton and Alan Heston (2010) discuss the methods behind 
					such price adjustments and many of the difficulties and 
					limitations involved. 
					Deaton, A., 
					and Heston, A. 2010. "Understanding PPPs and PPP-Based 
					National Accounts." American Economic Journal: 
					Macroeconomics 2 (4): 1–35. A working paper version is 
					available online
					here.
					
					Keep in 
					mind that in the special case of the US the US-$ equals the 
					international-$.
					
					The 
					European reference incomes are national median equivalised 
					disposable income after social transfers. 
					The 
					disposable household income including all income from work 
					(employee wages and self-employment earnings), private 
					income from investment and property, transfers between 
					households, and all social transfers received in cash 
					including old-age pensions.  
					Eurostat 
					applies an equivalisation factor calculated according to the 
					OECD-modified scale first proposed in 1994. The UN/World 
					Bank is not. 
					This is 
					according to Eurostat
					
					here, where you also find the relevant data. (If the 
					link should break, search on Google for 'Distribution of 
					income by quantiles EU-SILC and ECHP surveys'.) 
					There are 
					various ways of bringing the national poverty lines with 
					reference to the national median equivalised disposable 
					income after social transfers in line with the 
					income/expenditure concept used in PovcalNet. 
					Joliffe and 
					Prydz follow a different approach and their paper is very 
					relevant for anyone interested in this question here. One 
					alternative to the approach I'm following in this article 
					would be to start from the poverty lines they estimated 
					(based on the poverty headcount ratio) and apply the growth 
					rate of the median income since the publication of their 
					study. Yet another possibility would of course be to repeat 
					their analysis with the up-to-date data. I am not following 
					either of these approaches because I believe for a wide 
					audience they are less transparent that the approach here which is simply: I rely on the same dataset so that I rely 
					on the same income concept, then look up the median income 
					and multiply it by 0.6. 
					This is the 
					reference: Jolliffe & Prydz (2016). Estimating international 
					poverty lines from comparable national thresholds. The 
					Journal of Economic Inequality, 14(2), 185-198. 
					––– 
					The 
					following are the relevant calculations. All of them are 
					based on PovcalNet data: 
					
					Germany's 
					median monthly income in 2017 was $1417.29 according to 
					PovcalNet.60% of the median expressed in daily income/consumption is 
					0.6*$1417.29=$850.374/30=$28.35 per day
 
					
					Sweden's 
					median monthly income in 2017 was $1469 according to 
					PovcalNet.60% of the median expressed in daily income/consumption is 
					(0.6*1469)/30=$29.38 per day
 
					
					Norway's 
					median monthly income in 2017 was $1890 according to 
					PovcalNet.60% of the median expressed in daily income/consumption is 
					(0.6*1890)/30=$37.8 per day
 
					
					Austria's 
					median monthly income in 2017 was $1534 according to 
					PovcalNet.60% of the median expressed in daily income/consumption is 
					(0.6*1534)/30=$30.68 per day
 
					In the
					UK the median monthly income in 2017 was 
					$1252 according to PovcalNet.60% of the median expressed in daily income/consumption is 
					(0.6*1252)/30=$25.04 per day
 
					
					France's 
					median monthly income in 2017 was $1364 according to 
					PovcalNet.60% of the median expressed in daily income/consumption is 
					(0.6*1364)/30=$27.28 per day
 
					
					Switzerland's 
					median monthly income in 2017 was $1791 according to 
					PovcalNet.60% of the median expressed in daily income/consumption is 
					(0.6*1791)/30=$35.82 per day
 
					
					Spain's median 
					monthly income in 2017 was $982 according to PovcalNet.60% of the median expressed in daily income/consumption is 
					(0.6*982)/30=$19.64 per day
 
					
					Iceland's 
					median monthly income in 2017 was $1582 according to 
					PovcalNet.60% of the median expressed in daily income/consumption is 
					(0.6*1582)/30=$31.64 per day
 
					
					Luxembourg's 
					median monthly income in 2017 was $2193 according to 
					PovcalNet.60% of the median expressed in daily income/consumption is 
					(0.6*2193)/30=$43.86 per day
 
					
					Netherland's 
					median monthly income in 2017 was $1430 according to 
					PovcalNet.60% of the median expressed in daily income/consumption is 
					(0.6*1430)/30=$28.6 per day
 
					
					Belgium's 
					median monthly income in 2017 was $1346 according to 
					PovcalNet.60% of the median expressed in daily income/consumption is 
					(0.6*1346)/30=$26.92 per day
 
					
					Denmark's 
					median monthly income in 2017 was $1453 according to 
					PovcalNet.60% of the median expressed in daily income/consumption is 
					(0.6*1453)/30=$29.06 per day
 
					
					Ireland's 
					median monthly income in 2017 was $1234 according to 
					PovcalNet.60% of the median expressed in daily income/consumption is 
					(0.6*1234)/30=$24.68 per day
 
					
					Finland's 
					median monthly income in 2017 was $1361 according to 
					PovcalNet.60% of the median expressed in daily income/consumption is 
					(0.6*1361)/30=$27.22 per day
					
					According 
					to the "Annual 
					Update of the HHS Poverty Guidelines" the poverty line 
					in the US is an annual income of US$12,760. [And 
					12,760/365.25=$34.95.]
					
					The 
					US median monthly income in 2017 was $1640 
					according to PovcalNet.60% of the median expressed in daily income/consumption is 
					(0.6*1640)/30=$32.8 per day
					
					These 
					reports are called 'Armuts- und Reichtumsbericht der 
					Bundesregierung' online at 
					
					armuts-und-reichtumsbericht.de 
					The latest 
					survey was produced by aproxima and published in 2016. It is 
					published as
					
					Wahrnehmung von Armut und Reichtum in Deutschland, 
					Ergebnisse der repräsentativen Bevölkerungsbefragung „ARB-Survey 
					2015", Berlin: Bundesministerium für Arbeit und Soziales 
					(Hrsg.).
					
					The 2011 
					PPP conversion factor for private consumption (LCU per 
					international $) for Germany in 2015 is 0.84 according to 
					the World Bank
					
					here. 
					This means 
					the perceived poverty threshold corresponds to 
					€947/0.84=int. $1,127.38 per month or int. $37.58.
					
					The 2011 
					PPP conversion factor for private consumption (LCU per 
					international $) for Germany in 2017 is 0.83 according to 
					the World Bank
					
					here. 
					This means 
					the UBI corresponds to 1200/0.83=int. $1,445.78 per month or 
					int. $48.19.
					
					That's 
					€783/0.834=int. $938.85 per month. Or 
					int. $938.85/30.5=int. $30.78 
					per day.
					
					Kahneman 
					and Deaton (2010) High income improves evaluation of life 
					but not emotional well-being. Published in the Proceedings 
					of the National Academy of Sciences. https://www.pnas.org/content/107/38/16489
					
					
					Kahneman 
					and Deaton analyze two different concepts self-reported 
					satisfaction: 
					- Emotional 
					well-being refers to the "emotional quality of an 
					individual's everyday experience the frequency and 
					intensity of experiences of joy, stress, sadness, anger, and 
					affection that make one's life pleasant or unpleasant." 
					- Life 
					evaluation refers to the thoughts that people have about 
					their life when they think about it.  
					The authors 
					find that higher incomes go together with higher 
					self-reported life satisfaction in both metrics. What they 
					emphasize is that at very high incomes this is not true 
					anymore emotional well-being does not increase over around 
					$75,000. Evaluation of life however continues to increase 
					even at incomes over $75,000.
					
					The two 
					previous ones were income/expenditure as determined in 
					household surveys and equivalised disposable income after 
					social transfers.
					
					There is 
					generally a gap between GDP per capita and the averages 
					found in both income surveys and expenditure surveys. But 
					the reasons for the gap are different depending on which we 
					are comparing. 
					GDP 
					includes many items that are typically not measured in 
					household income surveys, such as an imputed rental value of 
					owner-occupied housing, the retained earnings of firms and 
					taxes on production such as VAT. The gap is even larger when 
					GDP is compared to surveys of household consumption the 
					latter concept excluding both investment expenditure and 
					government expenditure on public services such as education 
					and health. 
					Other 
					aggregates beyond GDP are available in the national accounts 
					that are more comparable to the concepts applied in 
					household income and consumption surveys. However important 
					differences still remain even here. For example, in addition 
					to imputed rents, imputations for the value of certain 
					financial services, such as bank accounts, are included in 
					aggregate household consumption measured in national 
					accounts, with no equivalent for these items recorded in the 
					survey data. In many countries the consumption of 'nonprofit 
					institutions serving households' (NPISH) is included as part 
					of household consumption within national accounts, but not 
					within household surveys. 
					On top of 
					these conceptual differences are a range of mismeasurement 
					problems that affect both sets of data. On this topic see 
					Deaton (2005), and Pinkovskiy and Sala-i-Martin (2016). 
					Deaton, 
					Angus. 2005. "Measuring Poverty in a Growing World (or 
					Measuring Growth in a Poor World)." The Review of Economics 
					and Statistics 87 (1): 1–1.  
					Pinkovskiy, 
					Maxim, and Xavier Sala-i-Martin. 2016. "Lights, Camera… 
					Income! Illuminating the Nation" 
			 
			
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