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by Timofey Bordachev
Program Director of the Valdai Club
January 05, 2024
from
ValdaiClub Website
translated and edited by the RT team
January 11, 2024
from
RT Website
Original Russian version
© Getty Images
/ Davide Zanin
The
majority of the world
is no
longer willing
to accept
Western diktat.
That
heralds a revolution...
The main events of international politics in 2023 have shown that,
the origin of the current fundamental changes
is natural, and the main processes are constructive...
That is why the past year will be considered by
future historians as the end of the period in which the new reality
was perceived with trepidation, and the beginning of a time when a
constructive attitude was developed towards it.
In other words,
it was in 2023 that many of us finally
realized that the
collapse of the previous international
order is not a catastrophe, but instead
brings significant benefits for the
development of the whole world.
Because the very nature of international politics
is formed on tragedies, these policies will always be accompanied by
the upheavals and horrors of war.
But somewhat obscured by all the dramas we are
witnessing now, the features of the equilibrium that will form the
basis of a relatively peaceful and just order in the future are
gradually emerging.
All the more so because some of the characteristics of this new
reality have already become visible.
It is particularly positive that the behavior of the powers acting
as its bearers is neither destructive of the foundations of
inter-state relations nor aimed at fomenting large-scale military
confrontation.
Among these features of the new international
order, some of the most important can be identified.
First, the emergence of democratic
multipolarity, symbolized by
the BRICS bloc.
Second, the gradual erosion of the monopoly of a small group of
states in various sectors of the global economy.
Third, the revival of foreign policy activity by a greater
number of countries, which we define as the 'world majority':
a group of states that do not set
themselves revolutionary tasks, but seek to strengthen their
independence in world affairs and determine their own
future.
All these vivid phenomena of world politics in
2023 show that political change - to use a definition from the
British historian Edward H. Carr's book 'The Twenty Years'
Crisis - 1919-1939' - is much more likely than revolutionary
change, which has always led humanity to world wars.
And now we see that even the most conservative
forces in international affairs, united in military-political blocs
led by the United States are,
either moving toward a revision
of the order under which they had a privileged position,
or are fighting defensive battles whose purpose is to
create the conditions for future negotiations...
In the case of the forces of progress, led by the
BRICS group,
the struggle for change is also characterized
by hopes for revision of the international order,
but not its decisive destruction...
This allows the observer to be cautiously
optimistic about our common future.
The BRICS group emerged at a time when the dominance of the US and
its closest European allies in world affairs was almost complete,
when they could act as the main distributors of global benefits and,
most importantly, when this situation was to some extent acceptable
to other states.
This is another phenomenon of the
international order to which we are now saying goodbye, and of
the way in which it is happening.
Never before has the injustice shown to the
interests of the majority of the world's countries been so
effectively offset by the benefits that have accrued to virtually
everyone from globalization.
One might even say that the state of affairs
known to us as the liberal world order was, in its nature and
content, a transitional phase between the absolute tyranny of the
European empires of the 19th century and the new
international order that is only now emerging.
And it is coming to pass precisely as a response
to the inevitable process of the emergence of a multitude of
sovereign states.
The countries that formed BRICS in 2006 originally set out to
increase their influence in world affairs and to shape global
development in their own interests.
They did not aim to destroy the US-led world
order, and have not yet come up with such an ambitious program.
The main feature of this association - the
sovereign equality of its participants - initially distinguished it
from the existing formal and informal coalitions of the West, which
are centered on the unquestioned power of the US over the main
actions of its allies in the sphere of foreign policy and security.
Due to its composition,
the BRICS group won't be able to
establish such a type of relations among its participants.
However, as the crisis of the liberal world order deepened, the
influence and role of the BRICS group in world affairs gradually
increased.
First of all, the political significance of
the group grew - precisely as a way of signaling an alternative
to the Western approach to solving the problems of global
development and the broader international agenda.
At the same time, the countries of the group
still do not formulate strategies that could be seen as a direct
challenge to the West or that reflect a vision of an 'ideal'
world order comparable in clarity to that of the West.
This is an inevitable consequence of the lack
of hegemony of a single power in the group, which does not
prevent the emergence of common interests, but deprives it of
the possibility of setting goals and objectives, the fulfillment
of which requires the submission of all to the same leadership.
Despite its peculiarities and differences from
traditional institutions, BRICS was undoubtedly the main phenomenon
in international politics in 2023.
The decision to expand in August 2023 makes it a
community of large and medium-sized states in 2024.
What is important is how BRICS, with its new
membership and evolving partnerships with other powers, will move
towards its main objective in the global economy:
to provide a safety net to keep globalization
afloat at a time when its former leaders in the West can no
longer fully perform these functions.
Creating alternative financial mechanisms and
limiting the monopoly position of the US dollar are no longer seen
as ways to destroy the old world order, but as necessary tools to
prevent the global economy from falling into chaos.
This will preserve the most important achievements of globalization:
In other words,
the structural opportunities on which the
independent policies of the majority of the world's countries
are based.
These countries are not setting themselves the
task of overturning the existing international order and destroying
globalization.
However, they are gradually increasing their
degree of independence in determining foreign policy decisions and
economic partnerships.
In general, the majority of the world's countries can be divided
into two groups.
The first is already self-confidently
building independent pathways to achieve the main development
goals and is acting as a partner of both the West and its
leading adversaries.
The second group is only increasing its
demands towards the US and its allies in terms of the conditions
for maintaining formally respectful relations.
Both types of behavior, however, are signs of a
new era in international politics...
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