|
by
Larry C. Johnson
June 02, 2026
from
Sonar21 Website
Pepe Escobar and I received the following intelligence report
last Thursday, which was produced by a knowledgeable source with
access.
I am not reproducing the entire report, but want
to highlight the issue of whether or not Iran now has, or soon will
have a nuke. Let me emphasize that I firmly support past US intel
community assessments that Iran, until now, had no interest in
obtaining a nuke.
However, it appears that the surprise attack on 28 February, which
followed the aborted color revolution attempted in late December
2025, played a decisive role in changing Iran's view on this matter.
Here is a portion of what Pepe and I received
last Thursday:
The public narrative surrounding the events
of May 25, 2026, has fundamentally misdiagnosed the operational
reality.
We are witnessing an irreversible shift in
the regional power structure, driven by a sequence of highly
calibrated escalations that have exposed the limits of American
coercive power and the fragility of the post-1991 Gulf security
paradigm.
The structural reality is clear:
The United States is operating from an
eroding basing infrastructure, with a compromised executive,
against an adversary that has mastered asymmetric
escalation...
Following Trump's maximalist public
response, the Supreme National Security Council deployed its
ultimate deterrent.
Through Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz
Sharif - currently the only trusted back-channel between
Washington and Tehran - Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian
communicated a formally structured, three-step strategic
ultimatum if US strikes continued:
-
Immediate Withdrawal from the ongoing
nuclear peace talks.
-
Total Abandonment of the prospective
Nuclear Treaty framework.
-
The Detonation of a Nuclear Device on
Iranian soil, executed not as a weapon of war, but as an
undeniable demonstration of sovereign capability and
ultimate control over the escalation ladder.
Transmitted by Pakistani FM Ishaq Dar
to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, this was not
rhetoric:
it was a binary geopolitical shock
warning...
Rubio recognized the gravity, immediately
moving to suppress the White House's escalatory posturing.
Here is my analysis of this information.
The Iranian National Security Council met
last week in the aftermath of US strikes on Qeshm Island and
Bandar Abbas.
The Council directed President Pezeshkian to
deliver a message to Pakistan's Prime Minister, Shebas Sharif.
Pezeshkian's message was simple and direct.
Prime Minister Sharif then directed his
Foreign Minister, Mr. Ishaq Dar, to deliver the message to US
Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Let me emphasize that the source of this
information was involved in the decision making process that
culminated in the warning delivered to Rubio.
The key phrase - If US Strikes Continued - was delivered to
Rubio on Thursday.
Based on Iran's announcement today (Monday) that
it was withdrawing from further talks with the US until the
Israeli attacks on Lebanon and the Palestinians ends, I believe
this intelligence report to be credible.
The ball is now in the hands of
Donald Trump and
Bibi
Netanyahu...
If Israel persists in bombing Lebanon - Beirut in
particular - then we should expect Iran to announce that it is
withdrawing from the NPT.
Once free of the NPT obligations, Iran will be
free to carry out item 3, i.e.,
Detonating a Nuclear Device on
Iranian Soil...!
This will be a demonstration intended to warn
Israel and the US that further attacks on Iran would carry
catastrophic consequences.
Pepe and I received clarification on how Iran has obtained a
functioning nuke...
The information regarding the construction of
this device (or devices) was provided by a third country that
does have proven capabilities in this area.
Iran's objective is, with the backing of
Pakistan, China and Russia, to raise the risk to Israel of
engaging in future attacks on Iran.
The source also provided the following assessment
of the consequences of US and Israeli actions on the global security
and financial architecture:
The secondary effects of this standoff are
rewiring the global strategic and financial architecture in real
time:
-
The Collapse of the Abraham Accords:
The political infrastructure sustaining
Israeli-Arab normalization is functionally dead. Pakistan
has publicly rejected it, Saudi Arabia has frozen all
back-channel discussions, and Qatar and Oman are actively
preparing a six-to-nine-month timeline for U.S. forces to
vacate their military installations.
-
The Emerging Security Axis:
A new Saudi-Pakistan-Turkey-Egypt
security architecture is being constructed, completely
detached from U.S. backing. Pakistan has elevated itself
from a peripheral player to the indispensable operational
pivot, leveraging an Islamic cultural proximity that neither
Washington nor Beijing can replicate.
-
Systemic Risk to the Global Order:
An Iranian nuclear demonstration would
obliterate the global non-proliferation framework and hand
Beijing an unearned, definitive proof-of-concept regarding
the limits of American hegemony.
Donald Trump still has time to de-escalate the
situation and avoid catastrophe, but it will require some
unpalatable, difficult decisions on his part.
First, and most important, cut aid to
Israel and compel Netanyahu to end his attack on Lebanon and
withdraw Israeli forces from Gaza. I doubt that Trump has the
spine to do this, but it is the kind of dramatic step required
to persuade the Iranians that Trump is serious about negotiating
a genuine settlement.
Second, lift the sanctions - at least
on Iranian oil - and return frozen Iranian assets.
Third, accept that Iran has
jurisdiction over those parts of the Strait of Hormuz that sit
in Iran's territory under international law.
I doubt that Trump is willing to entertain these
options, which means a high probability that the fighting will
reignite.
If Israel continues to attack Lebanon - Beirut in
particular - Iran has made it quite clear that it will attack
Israeli military sites and personnel in northern Israel.
Last week's market euphoria about an impending
peace deal has 'evaporated'...
Now the Western world must come to grips with the
reality that
Iran, with the firm backing of
China and
Russia, is prepared to resist
US pressure and threats until the Iranian forces prevail.
An extraordinarily busy podcast day.
I started the week with my regular hit with
Judge Napolitano:
Larry Johnson:
Trump Negotiating Against Himself
Nima R. Alkhorshid and I caught the breaking news of Iran pulling the plug on
negotiations:
Larry Johnson:
The Strait of Hormuz Is a Ticking Time
Bomb
- The U.S. & Iran Just THREW DOWN -
Sulaiman Ahmed also wanted to focus on Iran's decision to shut down
further negotiations until its key demands are met:
BREAKING:
IRAN ORDER EVACUATION OF ISRAEL & IRAN
HAS NUKES?
- w/ FMR CIA LARRY JOHNSON -
Glenn Diesen also wanted to discuss the matter.
Larry Johnson:
Iran Abandons Talks & Threatens to
Retaliate Against Israel
Kyle Anzalone asked me to elaborate on the intelligence report about
Iran demonstrating a nuke:
Larry Johnson:
Is Iran About to Test a NUKE?!
Pepe Escobar and I are now partnered up to do a weekly broadcast on Zulfiqar Ali's Power Shift channel. We will do a joint-panel
discussion twice a month.
Here is our premiere episode discussing
the intelligence document we received:
Ex-CIA & Escobar
EXPOSE Iran has become NUCLEAR POWER
The news out of Iran hit Mario hard and he asked me to discuss the
mix messages being sent by Trump and Netanyahu:
AXIOS:
TRUMP THREATENS NETANYAHU AND CALLS HIM
"FKN CRAZY"
- w/ Fmr. CIA Larry Johnson -
|
