by Andrew Gavin Marshall
April 6, 2009
from
GlobalResearch Website
Andrew G. Marshall is a
Research Associate of the Centre for Research on Globalization (CRG).
He is currently studying Political Economy and History at Simon
Fraser University. |
Introduction
Following the 2009 G20 summit, plans were announced for implementing the
creation of a new global currency to replace the US dollar’s role as the
world reserve currency.
Point 19 of the communiqué released by the G20
at the end of the Summit stated,
"We have agreed to support a general SDR
allocation which will inject $250bn (£170bn) into the world economy and
increase global liquidity."
SDRs, or Special Drawing Rights, are,
"a synthetic paper currency issued by the
International Monetary Fund."
As the Telegraph reported,
"the G20 leaders have activated the IMF's
power to create money and begin global 'quantitative easing'. In doing
so, they are putting a de facto world currency into play. It is outside
the control of any sovereign body. Conspiracy theorists will love it." [1]
The article continued in stating that,
"There is now a world currency in waiting.
In time, SDRs are likely to evolve into a parking place for the foreign
holdings of central banks, led by the People's Bank of China."
Further, "The creation of a Financial
Stability Board looks like the first step towards a global financial
regulator," or,
in other words, a global central bank.
It is important to take a closer look at these "solutions" being proposed
and implemented in the midst of the current global financial crisis. These
are not new suggestions, as they have been in the plans of the global elite
for a long time. However, in the midst of the current crisis, the elite have
fast-tracked their agenda of forging a
New World Order in finance.
It is important to address the background to
these proposed and imposed "solutions" and what effects they will have on
the International Monetary System (IMS) and the global political economy as
a whole.
A New Bretton-Woods
In October of 2008, Gordon Brown, Prime Minister of the UK, said that we,
"must have a new Bretton Woods -
building a new international financial architecture for the years
ahead."
He continued in saying that,
"we must now reform the international
financial system around the agreed principles of transparency,
integrity, responsibility, good housekeeping and co-operation across
borders."
An article in the Telegraph reported that Gordon
Brown would want,
"to see the IMF reformed to become a ‘global
central bank’ closely monitoring the international economy and financial
system." [2]
On October 17, 2008, Prime Minister Gordon Brown
wrote an op-ed in the Washington Post in which he said,
"This week, European leaders came together
to propose the guiding principles that we believe should underpin this
new
Bretton Woods: transparency, sound banking, responsibility,
integrity and global governance.
We agreed that urgent decisions
implementing these principles should be made to root out the
irresponsible and often undisclosed lending at the heart of our
problems.
To do this, we need cross-border supervision
of financial institutions; shared global standards for accounting and
regulation; a more responsible approach to executive remuneration that
rewards hard work, effort and enterprise but not irresponsible
risk-taking; and the renewal of our international institutions to make
them effective early-warning systems for the world economy." [3]
In early October 2008, it was reported that,
"as the world's central bankers gather this
week in Washington DC for an IMF-World Bank conference to discuss the
crisis, the big question they face is whether it is time to establish a
global economic 'policeman' to ensure the crash of 2008 can never be
repeated."
Further,
"any organization with the power to police
the global economy would have to include representatives of every major
country – a United Nations of economic regulation."
A former governor of the Bank of England
suggested that,
"the answer might already be staring us in
the face, in the form of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS),"
however, "the problem is that it has no teeth.
The IMF tends to couch
its warnings about economic problems in very diplomatic language, but
the BIS is more independent and much better placed to deal with this if
it is given the power to do so." [4]
Emergence of Regional
Currencies
On January 1, 1999, the European Union established the Euro as its regional
currency.
The Euro has grown in prominence over the past several years.
However, it is not to be the only regional currency in the world. There are
moves and calls for other regional currencies throughout the world.
In 2007, Foreign Affairs, the journal of the Council on Foreign Relations,
ran an article titled,
The End of National Currency, in which it began by
discussing the volatility of international currency markets, and that very
few "real" solutions have been proposed to address successive currency
crises.
The author poses the question,
"will restoring lost sovereignty to
governments put an end to financial instability?"
He answers by stating that,
"This is a dangerous misdiagnosis," and
that, "The right course is not to return to a mythical past of monetary
sovereignty, with governments controlling local interest and exchange
rates in blissful ignorance of the rest of the world. Governments must
let go of the fatal notion that nationhood requires them to make and
control the money used in their territory.
National currencies and global markets
simply do not mix; together they make a deadly brew of currency crises
and geopolitical tension and create ready pretexts for damaging
protectionism. In order to globalize safely, countries should abandon
monetary nationalism and abolish unwanted currencies, the source of much
of today's instability."
The author explains that,
"Monetary nationalism is simply incompatible
with
globalization. It has always been, even
if this has only become apparent since the 1970s, when all the world's
governments rendered their currencies intrinsically worthless."
The author states that,
"Since economic development outside the
process of globalization is no longer possible, countries should abandon
monetary nationalism.
Governments should replace national currencies
with the dollar or the Euro or, in the case of Asia, collaborate to
produce a new multinational currency over a comparably large and
economically diversified area."
Essentially, according to the author, the
solution lies in regional currencies.[5]
In October of 2008,
"European Central Bank council member Ewald
Nowotny said a 'tri-polar' global currency system is developing between
Asia, Europe and the U.S. and that he's skeptical the U.S. dollar's
centrality can be revived." [6]
The Union of South American Nations
The Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) was established on May 23,
2008, with the headquarters to be in Ecuador, the South American Parliament
to be in Bolivia, and the Bank of the South to be in Venezuela.
As the BBC reported,
"The leaders of 12 South American nations
have formed a regional body aimed at boosting economic and political
integration in the region," and that, "The Unasur members are Argentina,
Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru,
Suriname, Uruguay and Venezuela." [7]
The week following the announcement of the
Union, it was reported that,
"Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da
Silva said Monday that South American nations will seek a common
currency as part of the region's integration efforts following the
creation of the Union of South American Nations."
He was quoted as saying,
"We are proceeding so as, in the future, we
have a common central bank and a common currency." [8]
The Gulf Cooperation Council and a Regional
Currency
In 2005, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), a regional trade bloc among
Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE),
announced the goal of creating a single common currency by 2010.
It was reported that,
"An economically united and efficient GCC is
clearly a more interesting proposition for larger companies than each
individual economy, especially given the impediments to trade evident
within the region. This is why trade relations within the GCC have been
a core focus of late."
Further,
"The natural extension of this trend for
increased integration is to introduce a common currency in order to
further facilitate trade between the different countries."
It was announced that,
"the region's central bankers had agreed to
pursue monetary union in a similar fashion to the rules used in Europe."[9]
In June of 2008, it was reported that,
"Gulf Arab central bankers agreed to create
the nucleus of a joint central bank next year in a major step forward
for monetary union but signaled that a new common currency would not be
in circulation by an agreed 2010 target."[10]
In 2002, it was announced that the,
"Gulf states say they are seeking advice
from the European Central Bank on their monetary union program."
In February of 2008, Oman announced that it
would not be joining the monetary union.
In November of 2008, it was
announced that the,
"Final monetary union draft says Gulf
central bank will be independent from governments of member states."[11]
In March of 2009, it was reported that,
"The GCC should not rush into forming a
single currency as member states need to work out the framework for a
regional central bank, Saudi Arabia's Central Bank Governor Muhammad Al
Jasser."
Jasser was further quoted as saying,
"It took the European Union 45 years to put
together a single currency. We should not rush."
In 2008, with the global financial crisis, new
problems were posed for the GCC initiative, as,
"Pressure mounted last year on the GCC
members to drop their currency pegs as inflation accelerated above 10
per cent in five of the six countries. All of the member states except
Kuwait peg their currencies to the dollar and tend to follow the US
Federal Reserve when setting interest rates."[12]
An Asian Monetary Union
In 1997, the Brookings Institution, a prominent American think tank,
discussed the possibilities of an East Asian Monetary Union, stating that,
"the question for the 21st century is
whether analogous monetary blocs will form in East Asia (and, for that
matter, in the Western Hemisphere). With the dollar, the yen, and the
single European currency floating against one another, other small open
economies will be tempted to link up to one of the three."
However,
"the linkage will be possible only if
accompanied by radical changes in institutional arrangements like those
contemplated by the European Union. The spread of capital mobility and
political democratization will make it prohibitively difficult to peg
exchange rates unilaterally. Pegging will require international
cooperation, and effective cooperation will require measures akin to
monetary unification."[13]
In 2001, Asia Times Online wrote an article
discussing a speech given by economist Robert A. Mundell at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University, at which he stated that,
"[t]he 'Asean plus three' (the 10 members of
the Association of Southeast Asian Nations plus China, Japan, and Korea)
‘should look to the European Union as a model for closer integration of
monetary policy, trade and eventually, currency integration’."[14]
On May 6, 2005, the website of the Association
of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) announced that,
"China, Japan, South Korea and the 10
members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have
agreed to expand their network of bilateral currency swaps into what
could become a virtual Asian Monetary Fund," and that, "[f]inance
officials of the 13 nations, who met in the sidelines of the Asian
Development Bank (ADB) annual conference in Istanbul, appeared
determined to turn their various bilateral agreements into some sort of
multilateral accord, although none of the officials would directly call
it an Asian Monetary Fund."[15]
In August of 2005, the San Francisco Federal
Reserve Bank published a report on the prospects of an East Asian Monetary
Union, stating that East Asia satisfies the criteria for joining a monetary
union, however, it states that compared to the European initiative,
"The implication is that achieving any
monetary arrangement, including a common currency, is much more
difficult in East Asia."
It further states that,
"In Europe, a monetary union was achievable
primarily because it was part of the larger process of political
integration," however, "There is no apparent desire for political
integration in East Asia, partly because of the great differences among
those countries in terms of political systems, culture, and shared
history. As a result of their own particular histories, East Asian
countries remain particularly jealous of their sovereignty."
Another major problem, as presented by the San
Francisco Fed, is that,
"East Asian governments appear much more
suspicious of strong supranational institutions," and thus, "in East
Asia, sovereignty concerns have left governments reluctant to delegate
significant authority to supranational bodies, at least so far."
It explains that as opposed to the steps taken
to create a monetary union in Europe,
"no broad free trade agreements have been
achieved among the largest countries in the region, Japan, Korea,
Taiwan, and China."
Another problem is that,
"East Asia does not appear to have an
obvious candidate for an internal anchor currency for a cooperative
exchange rate arrangement. Most successful new currencies have been
started on the back of an existing currency, establishing confidence in
its convertibility, thus linking the old with the new."
The report concludes that,
"exchange rate
stabilization and monetary integration are unlikely in the near term. Nevertheless, East Asia is integrating through trade, even without an
emphasis on formal trade liberalization agreements," and that, "there is
evidence of growing financial cooperation in the region, including the
development of regional arrangements for providing liquidity during
crises through bilateral foreign exchange swaps, regional economic
surveillance discussions, and the development of regional bond markets."
Ultimately,
"East Asia might also proceed along the same
path [as Europe], first with loose agreements to stabilize currencies,
followed later by tighter agreements, and culminating ultimately in
adoption of a common anchor—and, after that, maybe an East Asia dollar."[16]
In 2007, it was reported that,
"Asia may need to establish its own monetary
fund if it is to cope with future financial shocks similar to that which
rocked the region 10 years ago," and that, "Further Asian financial
integration is the best antidote for Asian future financial crises."[17]
In September of 2007, Forbes reported that,
"An East Asian monetary union anchored by
Japan is feasible but the region lacks the political will to do it, the
Asian Development Bank said."
Pradumna Rana, an Asian Development Bank (ADB)
economist, said that,
"it appears feasible to establish a currency
union in East Asia - particularly among Indonesia, Japan, (South) Korea,
Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand," and that, "The economic
potential for monetary integration in Asia is strong, even though the
political underpinnings of such an accord are not yet in place."
Further,
"the real integration at the trade levels
'will actually reinforce the economic case for monetary union in Asia,
in a similar way that real-sector integration did so in Europe," and
ultimately, "the road to an Asian monetary union could proceed on a
'multi-track, multi-speed' basis with a seamless Asian free trade area
the goal on the trade side."[18]
In April of 2008, it was reported that,
"ASEAN bank deputy governors and financial
deputy ministers have met in Vietnam's central Da Nang city, discussing
issues on the financial and monetary integration and cooperation in the
region."[19]
African Monetary Union
Currently, Africa has several
different monetary union initiatives, as well as some existing monetary
unions within the continent.
One initiative is the,
"monetary union project of the Economic
Community of West African States (ECOWAS)," which is a
"regional group of 15 countries in West Africa."
Among the members are those of an
already-existing monetary union in the region, the West African Economic and
Monetary Union (WAEMU).
The ECOWAS consists of:
-
Benin
-
Burkina Faso
-
Cote
d’Ivoire
-
Guinea
-
Guinea Bissau
-
Mali
-
Niger
-
Senegal
-
Sierra Leone
-
Togo
-
Cape Verde
-
Liberia
-
Ghana
-
Gambia
-
Nigeria [20]
The African Union was founded in 2002, and is an intergovernmental
organization consisting of 53 African states. In 2003, the Brookings
Institution produced a paper on African economic integration.
In it, the authors started by stating that,
"Africa, like other regions of the world, is
fixing its sights on creating a common currency. Already, there are
projects for regional monetary unions, and the bidding process for an
eventual African central bank is about to begin."
It states that,
"A common currency was also an objective of
the Organization for African Unity and the African Economic Community,
the predecessors of the AU," and further, that, "The 1991 Abuja Treaty
establishing the African Economic Community outlines six stages for
achieving a single monetary zone for Africa that were set to be
completed by approximately 2028.
In the early stages, regional
cooperation and integration within Africa would be strengthened, and
this could involve regional monetary unions. The final stage involves
the establishment of the African Central Bank (ACB) and creation of a
single African currency and an African Economic and Monetary Union."
The paper further states that the African
Central Bank (ACB),
"would not be created until around 2020,
[but] the bidding process for its location is likely to begin soon,"
however, "there are plans for creating various regional monetary unions,
which would presumably form building blocks for the single African
central bank and currency."[21]
In August of 2008,
"Governors of African Central Banks convened
in Kigali Serena Hotel to discuss issues concerning the creation of
three African Union (AU) financial institutions," following "the AU
resolution to form the African Monetary Fund (AMF), African Central Bank
(ACB) and the African Investment Bank (AIB)."
The central bank governors,
"agreed that when established, the ACB would
solely issue and manage Africa's single currency and monetary authority
of the continent's economy."[22]
On March 2, 2009, it was reported that,
"The African Union will sign a memorandum of
understanding this month with Nigeria on the establishment of a
continental central bank," and that, "The institution will be based in
the Nigerian capital, Abuja, African Union Commissioner for Economic
Affairs Maxwell Mkwezalamba told reporters."
Further,
"As an intermediate step to the creation of
the bank, the pan- African body will establish an African Monetary
Institute within the next three years, he said at a meeting of African
economists in the city," and he was quoted as saying, "We have agreed to
work with the Association of African Central Bank Governors to set up a
joint technical committee to look into the preparation of a joint
strategy."[23]
The website for the Kenyan Ministry of Foreign
Affairs reported that,
"The African Union Commissioner for Economic
Affairs Dr. Maxwell Mkwezalamba has expressed optimism for the adoption
of a common currency for Africa," and that the main theme discussed at
the AU Commission meeting in Kenya was, "Towards the Creation of a
Single African Currency: Review of the Creation of a Single African
Currency: Which optimal Approach to be adopted to accelerate the
creation of the unique continental currency."[24]
A North American Monetary Union and the Amero
In January of 2008, I wrote an article documenting the moves toward the
creation of
a North American currency, likely under the name
Amero. [North-American Monetary Integration: Here Comes the Amero]
I will briefly outline the information presented
in that article here.
In 1999, the Fraser Institute, a prominent and highly influential Canadian
think tank, published a report written by Economics professor and former MP,
Herbert Grubel, called,
The Case for the Amero: The Economics and Politics
of a North American Monetary Union.
He wrote that,
"The plan for a North American Monetary
Union presented in this study is designed to include Canada, the United
States, and Mexico," and a "North American Central Bank, like the
European Central Bank, will have a constitution making it responsible
only for the maintenance of price stability and not for full
employment."[25]
He opined that,
"sovereignty is not infinitely valuable. The
merit of giving up some aspects of sovereignty should be determined by
the gains brought by such a sacrifice," and that, "It is important to
note that in practice Canada has given up its economic sovereignty in
many areas, the most important of which involve the World Trade
Organization (formerly the GATT), the North American Free Trade
Agreement," as well as the International Monetary Fund and World Bank.[26]
Also in 1999, the C.D. Howe Institute, another
of Canada’s most prominent think tanks, produced a report titled, From
Fixing to Monetary Union: Options for North American Currency Integration.
In this document, it was written that,
"The easiest way to broach the notion of a NAMU
[North American Monetary Union] is to view it as the North American
equivalent of the European Monetary Union (EMU) and, by extension, the
Euro."[27]
It further stated that the fact that,
"a NAMU would mean the end of sovereignty in
Canadian monetary policy is clear. Most obviously, it would mean
abandoning a made-in-Canada inflation rate for a US or NAMU inflation
rate."[28]
In May of 2007, Canada’s then Governor of the
Central Bank of Canada, David Dodge, said that,
"North America could one day embrace a Euro-style
single currency," and that, "Some proponents have dubbed the single
North American currency the ‘Amero’."
Answering questions following his speech, Dodge
said that, "a single currency was ‘possible’."[29]
In November of 2007, one of Canada’s richest
billionaires, Stephen Jarislowsky, also a member of the board of the
C.D.
Howe Institute, told a Canadian Parliamentary committee that,
"Canada should replace its dollar with a
North American currency, or peg it to the U.S. greenback, to avoid the
exchange rate shifts the loonie has experienced," and that, "I think we
have to really seriously start thinking of the model of a continental
currency just like Europe."[30]
Former Mexican President Vicente Fox, while
appearing on Larry King Live in 2007, was asked a question regarding the
possibility of a common currency for Latin America, to which he responded by
saying,
"Long term, very long term. What we propose
together, President Bush and myself, it's ALCA, which is a trade union
for all of the Americas. And everything was running fluently until Hugo
Chavez came. He decided to isolate himself. He decided to combat the
idea and destroy the idea."
Larry King then asked,
"It's going to be like the Euro dollar, you
mean?" to which Fox responded, "Well, that would be long, long term. I
think the processes to go, first step into is trading agreement. And
then further on, a new vision, like we are trying to do with NAFTA."[31]
In January of 2008, Herbert Grubel, the author
who coined the term "Amero" for the Fraser Institute report, wrote an
article for the Financial Post, in which he recommends fixing the Canadian loonie to the US dollar at a fixed exchange rate, but that there are
inherent problems with having the US Federal Reserve thus control Canadian
interest rates.
He then wrote that,
"there is a solution to this lack of
credibility. In Europe, it came through the creation of the Euro and
formal end of the ability of national central banks to set interest
rates. The analogous creation of the Amero is not possible without the
unlikely co-operation of the United States.
This leaves the credibility issue to be
solved by the unilateral adoption of a currency board, which would
ensure that international payments imbalances automatically lead to
changes in Canada's money supply and interest rates until the imbalances
are ended, all without any actions by the Bank of Canada or influence by
politicians.
It would be desirable to create
simultaneously the currency board and a New Canadian Dollar valued at
par with the U.S. dollar. With longer-run competitiveness assured at
U.S.90¢ to the U.S. dollar."[32]
In January of 2009, an online publication of the
Wall Street Journal, called Market Watch, discussed the possibility of
hyperinflation of the United States dollar, and then stated, regarding the
possibility of an Amero,
"On its face, while difficult to imagine, it
makes intuitive sense. The ability to combine Canadian natural
resources, American ingenuity and cheap Mexican labor would allow North
America to compete better on a global stage."
The author further states that,
"If forward policy attempts to induce more
debt rather than allowing savings and obligations to align, we must
respect the potential for a system shock. We may need to let a two-tier
currency gain traction if the dollar meaningfully debases from current
levels," and that, "If this dynamic plays out - and I've got no insight
that it will - the global balance of powers would fragment into four
primary regions: North America, Europe, Asia and the Middle East. In
such a scenario, ramifications would manifest through social unrest and
geopolitical conflict."[33]
A Global Currency
The Phoenix
In 1988, The Economist ran an article
titled, Get Ready for the Phoenix (below insert), in which they wrote,
"THIRTY years from now, Americans, Japanese,
Europeans, and people in many other rich countries and some relatively
poor ones will probably be paying for their shopping with the same
currency. Prices will be quoted not in dollars, yen or D-marks but in,
let's say, the phoenix. The phoenix will be favored by companies and
shoppers because it will be more convenient than today's national
currencies, which by then will seem a quaint cause of much disruption to
economic life in the late twentieth century."
The article stated that,
"The market crash [of 1987] taught
[governments] that the pretence of policy cooperation can be worse than
nothing, and that until real co-operation is feasible (i.e., until
governments surrender some economic sovereignty) further attempts to peg
currencies will flounder."
Amazingly the article states that,
"Several more big exchange-rate upsets, a
few more stock-market crashes and probably a slump or two will be needed
before politicians are willing to face squarely up to that choice. This
points to a muddled sequence of emergency followed by patch-up followed
by emergency, stretching out far beyond 2018-except for two things. As
time passes, the damage caused by currency instability is gradually
going to mount; and the very trends that will make it mount are making
the utopia of monetary union feasible."
Further, the article stated that,
"The phoenix zone would impose tight
constraints on national governments. There would be no such thing, for
instance, as a national monetary policy. The world phoenix supply would
be fixed by a new central bank, descended perhaps from the IMF. The
world inflation rate-and hence, within narrow margins, each national
inflation rate-would be in its charge. Each country could use taxes and
public spending to offset temporary falls in demand, but it would have
to borrow rather than print money to finance its budget deficit."
The author admits that,
"This means a big loss of economic
sovereignty, but the trends that make the phoenix so appealing are
taking that sovereignty away in any case. Even in a world of
more-or-less floating exchange rates, individual governments have seen
their policy independence checked by an unfriendly outside world."
The article concludes in stating that,
"The phoenix would probably start as a
cocktail of national currencies, just as the Special Drawing Right is
today. In time, though, its value against national currencies would
cease to matter, because people would choose it for its convenience and
the stability of its purchasing power."
The last sentence states,
"Pencil in the phoenix for around 2018, and
welcome it when it comes."[34]
Get Ready for the Phoenix
Source: The Economist
September 09, 1988
Vol. 306, pp 9-10
from
SingleGlobalCurrency Website
THIRTY years from now, Americans, Japanese, Europeans, and
people in many other rich countries, and some relatively poor
ones will probably be paying for their shopping with the same
currency.
Prices will be quoted not in dollars, yen or D-marks
but in, let's say, the phoenix. The phoenix will be favored by
companies and shoppers because it will be more convenient than
today's national currencies, which by then will seem a quaint
cause of much disruption to economic life in the last twentieth
century.
At the beginning of 1988 this appears an outlandish prediction.
Proposals for eventual monetary union proliferated five and ten
years ago, but they hardly envisaged the setbacks of 1987. The
governments of the big economies tried to move an inch or two
towards a more managed system of exchange rates - a logical
preliminary, it might seem, to radical monetary reform.
For lack
of co-operation in their underlying economic policies they
bungled it horribly, and provoked the rise in interest rates
that brought on the stock market crash of October.
These events have chastened
exchange-rate reformers. The market crash taught them that the
pretence of policy co-operation can be worse than nothing, and
that until real co-operation is feasible (i.e., until
governments surrender some economic sovereignty) further
attempts to peg currencies will flounder.
But in spite of all the trouble governments have in reaching and
(harder still) sticking to international agreements about
macroeconomic policy, the conviction is growing that exchange
rates cannot be left to themselves. Remember that the Louvre
accord and its predecessor, the Plaza agreement of September
1985, were emergency measures to deal with a crisis of currency
instability.
Between 1983 and 1985 the dollar rose by 34%
against the currencies of America's trading partners; since then
it has fallen by 42%. Such changes have skewed the pattern of
international comparative advantage more drastically in four
years than underlying economic forces might do in a whole
generation.
In the past few days the world's main central banks, fearing
another dollar collapse, have again jointly intervened in the
currency markets (see page 62). Market-loving ministers such as
Britain's Mr. Nigel Lawson have been converted to the cause of
exchange-rate stability. Japanese officials take seriously he
idea of EMS-like schemes for the main industrial economies.
Regardless of the Louvre's embarrassing failure, the conviction
remains that something must be done about exchange rates.
Something will be, almost certainly in the course of 1988. And
not long after the next currency agreement is signed it will go
the same way as the last one. It will collapse. Governments are
far from ready to subordinate their domestic objectives to the
goal of international stability.
Several more big exchange-rate
upsets, a few more stock-market crashes and probably a slump or
two will be needed before politicians are willing to face
squarely up to that choice. This points to a muddled sequence of
emergency followed by a patch-up followed by emergency,
stretching out far beyond 2018 - except for two things.
As time passes, the damage caused
by currency instability is gradually going to mount; and the
very tends that will make it mount are making the utopia of
monetary union feasible.
The new world economy
The biggest change in the world economy since the early 1970's
is that flows of money have replaced trade in goods as the force
that drives exchange rates, as a result of the relentless
integration of the world's financial markets, differences in
national economic policies can disturb interest rates (or
expectations of future interest rates) only slightly, yet still
call forth huge transfers of financial assets from one country
to another.
These transfers swamp the flow of
trade revenues in their effect on the demand and supply for
different currencies, and hence in their effect on exchange
rates. As telecommunications technology continues to advance,
these transactions will be cheaper and faster still. With
uncoordinated economic policies, currencies can get only more
volatile.
Alongside that trend is another - of ever-expanding
opportunities for international trade. This too is the gift of
advancing technology.
Falling transport costs will make it
easier for countries thousands of miles apart to compete in each
others' markets. The law of one price (that a good should cost
the same everywhere, once prices are converted into a single
currency) will increasingly assert itself.
Politicians
permitting, national economies will follow their financial
markets - becoming ever more open to the outside world.
This will apply to labour as much
as to goods, partly thorough migration but also through
technology's ability to separate the worker form the point at
which he delivers his labour. Indian computer operators will be
processing New Yorkers' paychecks.
In all these ways national economic boundaries are slowly
dissolving. As the trend continues, the appeal of a currency
union across at least the main industrial countries will seem
irresistible to everybody except foreign-exchange traders and
governments.
In the phoenix zone, economic adjustment to shifts
in relative prices would happen smoothly and automatically,
rather as it does today between different regions within large
economies (a brief on pages 74-75 explains how.)
The absence of
all currency risk would spur trade, investment and employment.
The phoenix zone would impose tight constraints on national
governments. There would be no such thing, for instance, as a
national monetary policy. The world phoenix supply would be
fixed by a new central bank, descended perhaps from the IMF.
The
world inflation rate - and hence, within narrow margins, each
national inflation rate- would be in its charge. Each country
could use taxes and public spending to offset temporary falls in
demand, but it would have to borrow rather than print money to
finance its budget deficit.
With no recourse to the inflation
tax, governments and their creditors would be forced to judge
their borrowing and lending plans more carefully than they do
today. This means a big loss of economic sovereignty, but the
trends that make the phoenix so appealing are taking that
sovereignty away in any case.
Even in a world of more-or-less
floating exchange rates, individual governments have seen their
policy independence checked by an unfriendly outside world.
As the next century approaches, the natural forces that are
pushing the world towards economic integration will offer
governments a broad choice. They can go with the flow, or they
can build barricades. Preparing the way for the phoenix will
mean fewer pretended agreements on policy and more real ones.
It
will mean allowing and then actively promoting the
private-sector use of an international money alongside existing
national monies.
That would let people vote with
their wallets for the eventual move to full currency union. The
phoenix would probably start as a cocktail of national
currencies, just as the Special Drawing Right is today. In time,
though, its value against national currencies would cease to
matter, because people would choose it for its convenience and
the stability of its purchasing power.
The alternative - to preserve policymaking autonomy- would
involve a new proliferation of truly draconian controls on trade
and capital flows. This course offers governments a splendid
time.
They could manage exchange-rate movements, deploy monetary
and fiscal policy without inhibition, and tackle the resulting
bursts of inflation with prices and incomes polices. It is a
growth-crippling prospect.
Pencil in the phoenix for around
2018, and welcome it when it comes.
|
Recommendations for a Global Currency
In 1998, the IMF Survey discussed a speech given by James Tobin, a prominent
American economist, in which he argued that,
"A single global currency might offer a
viable alternative to the floating rate." He further stated that, "there
was still a great need" for "lenders of last resort."[35]
In 1999, economist Judy Shelton addressed the
US
House of Representatives Committee on Banking and Financial Services.
In her testimony, she stated that,
"The continued expansion of free trade, the
increased integration of financial markets and the advent of electronic
commerce are all working to bring about the need for an international
monetary standard - a global unit of account."
She further explained that,
"Regional currency unions seem to be the
next step in the evolution toward some kind of global monetary order.
Europe has already adopted a single currency. Asia may organize into a
regional currency bloc to offer protection against speculative assaults
on the individual currencies of weaker nations.
Numerous countries in
Latin America are considering various monetary arrangements to insulate
them from financial contagion and avoid the economic consequences of
devaluation.
An important question is whether this
process of monetary evolution will be intelligently directed or whether
it will simply be driven by events. In my opinion, political leadership
can play a decisive role in helping to build a more orderly, rational
monetary system than the current free-for-all approach to exchange rate
relations."
She further stated that,
"As we have seen in Europe, the sequence of
development is (1) you build a common market, and (2) you establish a
common currency. Indeed, until you have a common currency, you don’t
truly have an efficient common market."
She concludes by stating,
"Ideally, every nation should stand willing
to convert its currency at a fixed rate into a universal reserve asset.
That would automatically create a global monetary union based on a
common unit of account. The alternative path to a stable monetary order
is to forge a common currency anchored to an asset of intrinsic value.
While the current momentum for dollarization should be encouraged,
especially for Mexico and Canada, in the end the stability of the global
monetary order should not rest on any single nation."[36]
Paul Volcker, former Governor of the Federal
Reserve Board, stated in 2000, that,
"If we are to have a truly global economy, a
single world currency makes sense."
In a speech delivered by a member of the
Executive Board of the European Central Bank, it was stated that Paul
Volcker,
"might be right, and we might one day have a
single world currency. Maybe European integration, in the same way as
any other regional integration, could be seen as a step towards the
ideal situation of a fully integrated world. If and when this world will
see the light of day is impossible to say. However, what I can say is
that this vision seems as impossible now to most of us as a European
monetary union seemed 50 years ago, when the process of European
integration started."[37]
In 2000, the IMF held an international
conference and published a brief report titled,
One World, One Currency:
Destination or Delusion?, in which it was stated that,
"As perceptions grow that the world is
gradually segmenting into a few regional currency blocs, the logical
extension of such a trend also emerges as a theoretical possibility: a
single world currency. If so many countries see benefits from currency
integration, would a world currency not maximize these benefits?"
It outlines how,
"The dollar bloc, already underpinned by the
strength of the U.S. economy, has been extended further by dollarization
and regional free trade pacts. The Euro bloc represents an economic
union that is intended to become a full political union likely to expand
into Central and Eastern Europe.
A yen bloc may emerge from current proposals
for Asian monetary cooperation. A currency union may emerge among
Mercosur members in Latin America, a geographical currency zone already
exists around the South African rand, and a merger of the Australian and
New Zealand dollars is a perennial topic in Oceania."
The summary states that,
"The same commercial efficiencies, economies
of scale, and physical imperatives that drive regional currencies
together also presumably exist on the next level—the global scale."
Further, it reported that,
"The smaller and more vulnerable economies
of the world—those that the international community is now trying
hardest to help—would have most to gain from the certainty and stability
that would accompany a single world currency."[38]
Keep in mind, this document was produced by
the IMF, and so its recommendations for what it says would likely
"help" the
smaller and more vulnerable countries of the world, should be taken with a
grain – or bucket – of salt.
Economist Robert A. Mundell has long called for a global currency.
On his
website, he states that the creation of a global currency is,
"a project that would restore a needed
coherence to the international monetary system, give the International
Monetary Fund a function that would help it to promote stability, and be
a catalyst for international harmony."
He states that,
"The benefits from a world currency would be
enormous. Prices all over the world would be denominated in the same
unit and would be kept equal in different parts of the world to the
extent that the law of one price was allowed to work itself out. Apart
from tariffs and controls, trade between countries would be as easy as
it is between states of the United States."[39]
Renewed Calls for a Global Currency
On March 16, 2009, Russia suggested that,
"the G20 summit in London in April should
start establishing a system of managing the process of globalization and
consider the possibility of creating a supra-national reserve currency
or a ‘super-reserve currency’."
Russia called for,
"the creation of a supra-national reserve
currency that will be issued by international financial institutions,"
and that, "It looks expedient to reconsider the role of the IMF in that
process and also to determine the possibility and need for taking
measures that would allow for the
SDRs (Special Drawing Rights) to
become a super-reserve currency recognized by the world community."[40]
On March 23, 2009, it was reported that China’s
central bank,
"proposed replacing the US dollar as the
international reserve currency with a new global system controlled by
the International Monetary Fund."
The goal would be for the world reserve currency
that is,
"disconnected from individual nations and is
able to remain stable in the long run, thus removing the inherent
deficiencies caused by using credit-based national currencies."
The chief China economist for HSBC stated that,
"This is a clear sign that China, as the
largest holder of US dollar financial assets, is concerned about the
potential inflationary risk of the US Federal Reserve printing money."
The Governor of the People’s Bank of China, the
central bank,
"suggested expanding the role of special
drawing rights, which were introduced by the IMF in 1969 to support the Bretton
Woods fixed exchange rate regime but became less relevant once that
collapsed in the 1970s."
Currently,
"the value of SDRs is based on a basket of
four currencies – the US dollar, yen, euro and sterling – and they are
used largely as a unit of account by the IMF and some other
international organizations."
However,
"China’s proposal would expand the basket of
currencies forming the basis of SDR valuation to all major economies and
set up a settlement system between SDRs and other currencies so they
could be used in international trade and financial transactions.
Countries would entrust a portion of their SDR reserves to the IMF to
manage collectively on their behalf and SDRs would gradually replace
existing reserve currencies."[41]
On March 25, Timothy Geithner, Treasury
Secretary and former President of the New York Federal Reserve, spoke at the
Council on Foreign Relations, when asked a question about his thoughts on
the Chinese proposal for the global reserve currency, Geithner replied that,
"I haven't read the governor's proposal.
He's a remarkably - a very thoughtful, very careful, distinguished
central banker. Generally find him sensible on every issue. But as I
understand his proposal, it's a proposal designed to increase the use of
the IMF's special drawing rights.
And we're actually quite open to that
suggestion. But you should think of it as rather evolutionary, building
on the current architectures, than - rather than - rather than moving us
to global monetary union."[42]
In late March, it was reported that,
"A United Nations panel of economists has
proposed a new global currency reserve that would take over the US
dollar-based system used for decades by international banks," and that,
"An independently administered reserve currency could operate without
conflicts posed by the US dollar and keep commodity prices more stable."[43]
A recent article in the Economic Times stated
that,
"The world is not yet ready for an
international reserve currency, but is ready to begin the process of
shifting to such a currency. Otherwise, it would remain too vulnerable
to the hegemonic nation," as in, the United States.[44]
Another article in the Economic Times started by
proclaiming that,
"the world certainly needs an international
currency."
Further, the article stated that,
"With an unwillingness to accept dollars and
the absence of an alternative, international payments system can go into
a freeze beyond the control of monetary authorities leading the world
economy into a Great Depression," and that, "In order to avoid such a
calamity, the international community should immediately revive the idea
of the Substitution Account mooted in 1971, under which official holders
of dollars can deposit their unwanted dollars in a special account in
the IMF with the values of deposits denominated in an international
currency such as the SDR of the IMF."[45]
Amidst fears of a falling dollar as a result of
the increased open discussion of a new global currency, it was reported
that,
"The dollar’s role as a reserve currency
won’t be threatened by a nine-fold expansion in the International
Monetary Fund’s unit of account, according to UBS AG, ING Groep NV and
Citigroup Inc."
This was reported following the recent G20
meeting, at which,
"Group of 20 leaders yesterday gave approval
for the agency to raise $250 billion by issuing Special Drawing Rights,
or SDRs, the artificial currency that the IMF uses to settle accounts
among its member nations. It also agreed to put another $500 billion
into the IMF’s war chest."[46]
In other words, the large global financial
institutions came to the rhetorical rescue of the dollar, so as not to
precipitate a crisis in its current standing, so that they can continue with
quietly forming a new global currency.
Creating a World
Central Bank
In 1998, Jeffrey Garten wrote an article for the New York Times advocating a
"global Fed."
Garten was former Dean of the Yale School of
Management, former Undersecretary of Commerce for International Trade in the
Clinton administration, previously served on the White House Council on
International Economic Policy under the Nixon administration and on the
policy planning staffs of Secretaries of State Henry Kissinger and Cyrus
Vance of the Ford and Carter administrations, former Managing Director at
Lehman Brothers, and is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations.
In his article written in 1998, he stated that,
"over time the United States set up crucial
central institutions - the Securities and Exchange Commission (1933),
the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (1934) and, most important,
the Federal Reserve (1913). In so doing, America became a managed
national economy. These organizations were created to make capitalism
work, to prevent destructive business cycles and to moderate the harsh,
invisible hand of Adam Smith."
He then explained that,
"This is what now must occur on a global
scale. The world needs an institution that has a hand on the economic
rudder when the seas become stormy. It needs a global central bank."
He explains that,
"Simply trying to coordinate the world's
powerful central banks - the Fed and the new European Central Bank, for
instance - wouldn't work," and that, "Effective collaboration among
finance ministries and treasuries is also unlikely to materialize. These
agencies are responsible to elected legislatures, and politics in the
industrial countries is more preoccupied with internal events than with
international stability."
He then postulates that,
"An independent central bank with
responsibility for maintaining global financial stability is the only
way out. No one else can do what is needed: inject more money into the
system to spur growth, reduce the sky-high debts of emerging markets,
and oversee the operations of shaky financial institutions. A global
central bank could provide more money to the world economy when it is
rapidly losing steam."
Further,
"Such a bank would play an oversight role
for banks and other financial institutions everywhere, providing some
uniform standards for prudent lending in places like China and Mexico.
[However, t]he regulation need not be heavy-handed."
Garten continues,
"There are two ways a global central bank
could be financed. It could have lines of credit from all central banks,
drawing on them in bad times and repaying when the markets turn up.
Alternately - and admittedly more difficult to carry out - it could be
financed by a very modest tariff on all trade, collected at the point of
importation, or by a tax on certain global financial transactions."
Interestingly, Garten states that,
"One thing that would not be acceptable
would be for the bank to be at the mercy of short-term-oriented
legislatures."
In essence, it is not to be accountable to the
people of the world.
So, he asks the question,
"To whom would a global central bank be
accountable? It would have too much power to be governed only by
technocrats, although it must be led by the best of them. One
possibility would be to link the new bank to an enlarged Group of Seven
- perhaps a ''G-15'' [or in today’s context, the G20] that would include
the G-7 plus rotating members like Mexico, Brazil, South Africa, Poland,
India, China and South Korea."
He further states that,
"There would have to be very close
collaboration" between the global bank and the Fed, and that, "The
global bank would not operate within the United States, and it would not
be able to override the decisions of our central bank. But it could
supply the missing international ingredient - emergency financing for
cash-starved emerging markets. It wouldn't affect American mortgage
rates, but it could help the profitability of American multinational
companies by creating a healthier global environment for their
businesses."[47]
In September of 2008, Jeffrey Garten wrote an
article for the Financial Times in which he stated that,
"Even if the US’s massive financial rescue
operation succeeds, it should be followed by something even more
far-reaching – the establishment of a Global Monetary Authority to
oversee markets that have become borderless."
He emphasized the,
"need for a new Global Monetary Authority.
It would set the tone for capital markets in a way that would not be
viscerally opposed to a strong public oversight function with rules for
intervention, and would return to capital formation the goal of economic
growth and development rather than trading for its own sake."
Further, the,
"GMA would be a reinsurer or discounter for
certain obligations held by central banks. It would scrutinize the
regulatory activities of national authorities with more teeth than the
IMF has and oversee the implementation of a limited number of global
regulations. It would monitor global risks and establish an effective
early warning system with more clout to sound alarms than the BIS has."
Moreover,
"The biggest global financial companies
would have to register with the GMA and be subject to its monitoring, or
be blacklisted. That includes commercial companies and banks, but also
sovereign wealth funds, gigantic hedge funds and private equity firms."
He recommends that its board,
"include central bankers not just from the
US, UK, the eurozone and Japan, but also China, Saudi Arabia and Brazil.
It would be financed by mandatory contributions from every capable
country and from insurance-type premiums from global financial companies
– publicly listed, government owned, and privately held alike."[48]
In October of 2008, it was reported that Morgan
Stanley CEO John Mack stated that,
"it may take continued international
coordination to fully unlock the credit markets and resolve the
financial crisis, perhaps even by forming a new global body to oversee
the process."[49]
In late October of 2008, Jeffrey Garten wrote an
article for Newsweek in which he stated that,
"leaders should begin laying the groundwork
for establishing a global central bank."
He explained that,
"There was a time when the U.S. Federal
Reserve played this role [as governing financial authority of the
world], as the prime financial institution of the world's most powerful
economy, overseeing the one global currency. But with the growth of
capital markets, the rise of currencies like the Euro and the emergence
of powerful players such as China, the shift of wealth to Asia and the
Persian Gulf and, of course, the deep-seated problems in the American
economy itself, the Fed no longer has the capability to lead
single-handedly."
He explains the criteria and operations of a
world central bank, saying that,
"It could be the lead regulator of big
global financial institutions, such as Citigroup or Deutsche Bank, whose
activities spill across borders," as well as "act as a bankruptcy court
when big global banks that operate in multiple countries need to be
restructured. It could oversee not just the big commercial banks, such
as Mitsubishi UFJ, but also the 'alternative' financial system that has
developed in recent years, consisting of hedge funds, private-equity
groups and sovereign wealth funds—all of which are now substantially
unregulated."
Further, it,
"could have influence over key exchange
rates, and might lead a new monetary conference to realign the dollar
and the yuan, for example, for one of its first missions would be to
deal with the great financial imbalances that hang like a sword over the
world economy."
He further postulates that,
"A global central bank would not eliminate
the need for
the Federal Reserve or other national central banks, which
will still have frontline responsibility for sound regulatory policies
and monetary stability in their respective countries. But it would have
heavy influence over them when it comes to following policies that are
compatible with global growth and financial stability.
For example, it would work with key
countries to better coordinate national stimulus programs when the world
enters a recession, as is happening now, so that the cumulative impact
of the various national efforts do not so dramatically overshoot that
they plant the seeds for a crisis of global inflation. This is a big
threat as government spending everywhere goes into overdrive."[50]
In January of 2009, it was reported that,
"one clear solution to avoid a repeat of the
problems would be the establishment of a "global central bank" – with
the
IMF and
World Bank being unable to prevent the
financial meltdown."
Dr. William Overholt, senior research fellow at
Harvard's Kennedy School, formerly with the Rand Institute, gave a speech in
Dubai in which he said that,
"To avoid another crisis, we need an ability
to manage global liquidity. Theoretically that could be achieved through
some kind of global central bank, or through the creation of a global
currency, or through global acceptance of a set of rules with sanctions
and a dispute settlement mechanism."[51]
Guillermo Calvo, Professor of Economics,
International and Public Affairs at Columbia University wrote an article for VOX in late March of 2009.
Calvo is the former Chief Economist of the
Inter-American Development Bank, and is currently a Research Associate at
the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and President of the
International Economic Association and the former Senior Advisor in the
Research Department of the IMF.
He wrote that,
"Credit availability is not ensured by
stricter financial regulation. In fact, it can be counterproductive
unless it is accompanied by the establishment of a lender of last resort
(LOLR) that radically softens the severity of financial crisis by
providing timely credit lines. With that aim in mind, the 20th century
saw the creation of national or regional central banks in charge of a
subset of the capital market.
It has now become apparent that the realm of
existing central banks is very limited and the world has no institution
that fulfils the necessary global role. The IMF is moving in that
direction, but it is still too small and too limited to adequately do
so."
He advocates that,
"the first proposal that I would like to
make is that the topic of financial regulation should be discussed
together with the issue of a global lender of last resort."
Further, he proposed that,
"international financial institutions must
be quickly endowed with considerably more firepower to help emerging
economies through the deleveraging period."[52]
A "New World Order" in
Banking
In March of 2008, following the collapse of Bear Stearns, Reuters reported
on a document released by research firm CreditSights, which said that,
"Financial firms face a ‘new world order’,"
and that, "More industry consolidation and acquisitions may follow after
JPMorgan Chase & Co."
Further,
"In the event of future consolidation,
potential acquirers identified by CreditSights include JPMorganChase,
Wells Fargo, US Bancorp, Goldman Sachs and Bank of America."[53]
In June of 2008, before he was Treasury
Secretary in the Obama administration, Timothy Geithner, as head of the New
York Federal Reserve, wrote an article for the Financial Times following his
attendance at the
Bilderberg 2008
conference, in which he wrote that,
"Banks and investment banks whose health is
crucial to the global financial system should operate under a unified
regulatory framework," and he said that, "the US Federal Reserve should
play a "central role" in the new regulatory framework, working closely
with supervisors in the US and around the world."[54]
In November of 2008, The National, a prominent
United Arab Emirate newspaper, reported on Baron
David de Rothschild
accompanying Prime Minister Gordon Brown on a visit to the Middle East,
although not as a "part of the official party" accompanying Brown.
Following an interview with the Baron, it was
reported that,
"Rothschild shares most people’s view that
there is a
New World Order. In his opinion, banks
will deleverage and there will be a new form of global governance."[55]
In February of 2009, the Times Online reported
that a,
"New world order in banking [is] necessary,"
and that, "It is increasingly evident that the world needs a new banking
system and that it should not bear much resemblance to the one that has
failed so spectacularly."[56]
But of course, the ones that are shaping this
new banking system are the champions of the previous banking system.
The solutions that will follow are simply the
extensions of the current system, only sped up through the necessity posed
by the current crisis.
An Emerging Global
Government
A recent article in the Financial Post stated that,
"The danger in the present course is that if
the world moves to a 'super sovereign' reserve currency engineered by
experts, such as the 'UN Commission of Experts' led by Nobel laureate
economist Joseph Stiglitz, we would give up the possibility of a
spontaneous money order and financial harmony for a centrally planned
order and the politicization of money.
Such a regime change would endanger not only
the future value of money but, more importantly, our freedom and
prosperity."[57]
Further,
"An uncomfortable characteristic of the new
world order may well turn out to be that global income gaps will widen
because the rising powers, such as China, India and Brazil, regard those
below them on the ladder as potential rivals."
The author further states that,
"The new world order thus won't necessarily
be any better than the old one," and that, "What is certain, though, is
that global affairs are going to be considerably different from now on."[58]
In April of 2009, Robert Zoellick, President of
the World Bank, said that,
"If leaders are serious about creating new
global responsibilities or governance, let them start by modernizing
multilateralism to empower the WTO, the IMF, and the World Bank Group to
monitor national policies."[59]
David Rothkopf, a scholar at the Carnegie
Endowment for International Peace, former Deputy Undersecretary of Commerce
for International Trade in the Clinton administration, and former managing
director of Kissinger and Associates, and a member of the Council on Foreign
Relations, recently wrote a book titled,
Superclass: The Global Power
Elite and the World They are Making, of which he is certainly a member.
When discussing the role and agenda of the
global "superclass", he states that,
"In a world of global movements and
threats that don’t present their passports at national borders, it is no
longer possible for a nation-state acting alone to fulfill its portion
of the social contract."[60]
He writes that,
"even the international organizations and
alliances we have today, flawed as they are, would have seemed
impossible until recently, notably the success of the European Union – a
unitary democratic state the size of India. The evolution and
achievements of such entities against all odds suggest not isolated
instances but an overall trend in the direction of what Tennyson called
'the Parliament of Man,' or ‘universal law’."
He states that he is,
"optimistic that progress will continue to
be made," but it will be difficult, because it "undercuts many national
and local power structures and cultural concepts that have foundations
deep in the bedrock of human civilization, namely the notion of
sovereignty."[61]
He further writes that,
"Mechanisms of global governance are more
achievable in today’s environment," and that these mechanisms "are often
creative with temporary solutions to urgent problems that cannot wait
for the world to embrace a bigger and more controversial idea like real
global government."[62]
In December of 2008, the Financial Times ran an
article written by Gideon Rachman, a past Bilderberg attendee, who wrote
that,
"for the first time in my life, I think the
formation of some sort of world government is plausible," and that, "A
‘world government’ would involve much more than co-operation between
nations. It would be an entity with state-like characteristics, backed
by a body of laws. The European Union has already set up a continental
government for 27 countries, which could be a model. The EU has a
supreme court, a currency, thousands of pages of law, a large civil
service and the ability to deploy military force."
He then asks if the European model could "go
global," and states that there are three reasons for thinking that may be
the case.
-
First, he states, "it is increasingly clear that the most
difficult issues facing national governments are international in
nature: there is
global warming, a
global financial crisis and a ‘global
war on terror’."
-
Secondly, he states that, "It could be done," largely as a result of
the transport and communications revolutions having "shrunk the world."
-
Thirdly, this is made possible through an
awakening "change in the political atmosphere," as "The financial crisis and
climate change are pushing national governments towards global
solutions, even in countries such as China and the US that are
traditionally fierce guardians of national sovereignty."
He quoted an adviser to French President Nicolas Sarkozy as saying,
"Global governance is just a euphemism for
global government," and that the "core of the international financial
crisis is that we have global financial markets and no global rule of
law."
However, Rachman states that any push towards a
global government "will be a painful, slow process."
He then states that a key problem in this push
can be explained with an example from the EU, which,
"has suffered a series of humiliating
defeats in referendums, when plans for 'ever closer union' have been
referred to the voters. In general, the Union has progressed fastest
when far-reaching deals have been agreed by technocrats and politicians
– and then pushed through without direct reference to the voters.
International governance tends to be effective, only when it is
anti-democratic."[63]
In November of 2008, the United States National
Intelligence Council (NIC), the US intelligence community’s "center for
midterm and long-term strategic thinking," released a report that it
produced in collaboration with numerous think tanks, consulting firms,
academic institutions and hundreds of other experts, among them are,
-
the Atlantic Council of the United
States
-
the Wilson Center
-
RAND Corporation
-
the Brookings Institution
-
American Enterprise Institute
-
Texas A&M University
-
the Council on Foreign Relations
-
Chatham House in London.[64]
The report, titled,
Global Trends 2025 - A Transformed World, outlines the current global political and economic trends
that the world may be going through by the year 2025.
In terms of the financial crisis, it states that
solving this,
"will require long-term efforts to establish
a new international system."[65]
It suggests that as the "China-model" for
development becomes increasingly attractive, there may be a "decline in
democratization" for emerging economies, authoritarian regimes, and "weak
democracies frustrated by years of economic underperformance."
Further, the dollar will cease to be the global
reserve currency, as there would likely be a "move away from the
dollar."[66]
It states that the dollar will become,
"something of a first among equals in a
basket of currencies by 2025. This could occur suddenly in the wake of a
crisis, or gradually with global rebalancing."[67]
The report elaborates on the construction of a
new international system, stating that,
"By 2025, nation-states will no longer be
the only – and often not the most important – actors on the world stage
and the ‘international system’ will have morphed to accommodate the new
reality. But the transformation will be incomplete and uneven."
Further, it would be,
"unlikely to see an overarching,
comprehensive, unitary approach to global governance. Current trends
suggest that global governance in 2025 will be a patchwork of
overlapping, often ad hoc and fragmented efforts, with shifting
coalitions of member nations, international organizations, social
movements, NGOs, philanthropic foundations, and companies."
It also notes that,
"Most of the pressing transnational problems
– including climate change, regulation of globalized financial markets,
migration, failing states, crime networks, etc. – are unlikely to be
effectively resolved by the actions of individual nation-states. The
need for effective global governance will increase faster than existing
mechanisms can respond."[68]
The report discusses the topic of regionalism,
stating that,
"Greater Asian integration, if it occurs,
could fill the vacuum left by a weakening multilaterally based
international order but could also further undermine that order. In the
aftermath of the 1997 Asian financial crisis, a remarkable series of
pan-Asian ventures - the most significant being ASEAN+3 - began to take
root. Although few would argue that an Asian counterpart to the EU is a
likely outcome even by 2025, if 1997 is taken as a starting point, Asia
arguably has evolved more rapidly over the last decade than the European
integration did in its first decade(s)."
It further states that,
"movement over the next 15 years toward an
Asian basket of currencies—if not an Asian currency unit as a third
reserve—is more than a theoretical possibility."
It elaborates that,
"Asian regionalism would have global
implications, possibly sparking or reinforcing a trend toward three
trade and financial clusters that could become quasi-blocs (North
America, Europe, and East Asia)."
These blocs,
"would have implications for the ability to
achieve future global World Trade Organization agreements and regional
clusters could compete in the setting of trans-regional product
standards for IT, biotech, nanotech, intellectual property rights, and
other ‘new economy’ products."[69]
Of great importance to address, and reflecting
similar assumptions made by Rachman in his article advocating for a world
government, is the topic of democratization, saying that,
"advances are likely to slow and
globalization will subject many
recently democratized countries to increasing social and economic
pressures that could undermine liberal institutions."
This is largely because,
"the better economic performance of many
authoritarian governments could sow doubts among some about democracy as
the best form of government. The surveys we consulted indicated that
many East Asians put greater emphasis on good management, including
increasing standards of livings, than democracy."
Further,
"even in many well-established democracies,
surveys show growing frustration with the current workings of democratic
government and questioning among elites over the ability of democratic
governments to take the bold actions necessary to deal rapidly and
effectively with the growing number of transnational challenges."[70]
Conclusion
Ultimately, what this implies is that the future of the global political
economy is one of increasing moves toward a global system of governance, or
a world government, with a world central bank and global currency; and that,
concurrently, these developments are likely to materialize in the face of
and as a result of a decline in democracy around the world, and thus, a rise
in authoritarianism.
What we are witnessing is the creation of a
New World
Order, composed of a totalitarian global government structure.
In fact, the very concept of a global currency and global central bank is
authoritarian in its very nature, as it removes any vestiges of oversight
and accountability away from the people of the world, and toward a small,
increasingly interconnected group of international elites.
As Carroll Quigley explained in his monumental book,
Tragedy And
Hope,
"[T]he powers of financial capitalism had
another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of
financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system
of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was
to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the
world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent
private meetings and conferences.
The apex of the system was to be the Bank
for International Settlements in Basle, Switzerland, a private bank
owned and controlled by the world’s central banks which were themselves
private corporations."[71]
Indeed, the current "solutions" being proposed
to the global financial crisis benefit those that caused the crisis over
those that are poised to suffer the most as a result of the crisis: the
disappearing middle classes, the world’s dispossessed, poor, indebted
people.
The proposed solutions to this crisis represent the manifestations
and actualization of the ultimate generational goals of
the global elite;
and thus, represent the least favorable conditions for the vast majority of
the world’s people.
It is imperative that the world’s people throw their weight against these
"solutions" and usher in a new era of world order, one of the People’s World
Order; with the solution lying in local governance and local economies, so
that the people have greater roles in determining the future and structure
of their own political-economy, and thus, their own society.
With this alternative of localized political
economies, in conjunction with an unprecedented global population and
international democratization of communication through the internet, we have
the means and possibility before us to forge the most diverse manifestation
of cultures and societies that humanity has ever known.
The answer lies in the individual’s internalization of human power and
destination, and a rejection of the externalization of power and human
destiny to a global authority of which all but a select few people have
access to.
To internalize human power and destiny is to
realize the gift of a human mind, which has the ability to engage in thought
beyond the material, such as food and shelter, and venture into the realm of
the conceptual.
Each individual possesses – within themselves –
the ability to think critically about themselves and their own life; now is
the time to utilize this ability with the aim of internalizing the concepts
and questions of human power and destiny:
The supposed answers to these questions are
offered to us by a tiny global elite who fear the repercussions of what
would take place if the people of the world were to begin to answer these
questions themselves.
I do not know the answers to these questions,
but I do know that the answers lie in the human mind and spirit, that which
has overcome and will continue to overcome the greatest of challenges to
humanity, and will, without doubt, triumph over the
New
World Order.
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