by Geoffrey Ingersoll
from BusinessInsider Website
Henry Kissinger recently gave an ominous forecast on the future of Iran's nuclear program: that it will be taken care of one way or another very soon.
Speaking at the World Economic Forum at a Swiss ski resort in Davos, Kissinger said,
Also at Davos, Agence France Presse reports that President Shimon Peres said,
Kissinger, Peres and Defense Minister Ehud Barak all seem to think that the Iran nuclear situation will come to close in some way in the next few months.
However, exactly how that will happen remains a subject of debate - where some see military threat and possible strikes as integral, others report that sanctions have crippled the country, opening up critical lanes for upcoming nuclear talks with the U.N. Security Council.
One recent Haaratz report said that Iran's income from oil had plummeted 50% in recent months, and the country has been unable to find the space to store its excess oil. Iran's oil represents 80 percent of its income, and the U.S. has almost unilaterally banned the import of that oil.
On the other side, Iran's major importers are Asian countries (though China is exempt, it still represents an ally) - countries likely to, and more importantly, able to, put pressure on the U.S. to drop sanctions.
While Iran may try to delay and quibble over locations for the negotiation, it looks like economic sanctions may well cause their hand to fold, and soon.
Iran's leaders know the only route to ease the economic pressures - and possibly undercut threats of military action on its nuclear sites by Israel - is through potential deal-making with the six world powers, which include the five permanent UN Security Council members plus Germany.