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Water Resources
Reliable long-range forecasts of 3 to 6 months could have significant impacts on water resource deployment, and thereby on public and private electric power production as well as flood control and irrigation services. The amount of fresh water immediately available at a given time for human consumption, agriculture, and manufacturing depends in general an arrangements for both storage and conduction to centers of population. Our lakes and river systems have become a proliferation of linked reservoirs and aqueducts, yet the ultimate water supply seems to be increasingly strained by population growth, although authorities in the field differ about the seriousness of the problem. 43/
The water storage systems are engineered to withstand the highest peak loads likely to occur over the life of the installation. At present, however, a good deal of this capacity is not used, being kept in reserve against possible extreme weather-derived contingencies. This is particularly true of a multipurpose installation such as TVA, where extreme contingency requirements of reserve capacity for different purposes may conflict; thus, keeping reservoir capacity against floods may mean inadequate water storage against droughts. 44/
The reliability of the improved weather forecasts would directly govern the degree to which these operationally conservative standards could be departed from. There is a question, then, of when forecasts would be considered sufficiently reliable to be a major programming factor. (Small-scale, violent disturbances such as local cloudbursts, the consequences of which are now absorbed in the safety margins of reserve capacities, should also be considered in estimating the costs in relation to the benefits of the application of forecast data.)
Possible efficiencies in water power storage operation would probably vary by area in relation to the variation in precipitation from season to season, or from rainy season to rainy season. Therefore, the utility of the forecasts might well vary for different climates, different terrains, and in relation to different sorts of water retention and utilization systems. Thus, to assess the impact of increased long-range forecasts and more perfected short-range forecasts, it will be necessary to discover:
• What are critical forecast characteristics for programming flood control, water power, and multipurpose hydroelectric projects of various designs in regions with different weather patterns?
Using a multipurpose dammed river system as a model, some of the impacts of a reliable, three to six month forecast might be as follows. Runoffs from snows and rainfall could be forecast and calculated. From this, the reserve reservoir capacity required to prevent or buffer floods could be calculated over the season. If flood run-offs were not to occur, storage capacity could be fully utilized, and dam spills for electric power generation and irrigation could be maximized. Irrigation water could be parsimoniously or generously dispensed, depending on the adequacy of rainfall expected later throughout the season.
Forecasts of extreme water shortages in areas that are not too extensive geographically might warrant relatively heavy expenditure to build temporary water conduits from adjacent drainage areas, if water could be spared from such regions. In preparation for a forecast flood season, levees could be reinforced, bottom land either left fallow or cover-cropped to retain soil, and preparations made for disaster relief. Water required for maintaining adequate channel depths on navigable streams could be calculated and spilled on forecast schedules. Seasonal demand schedules for electric power required for weather-sensitive producer and consumer uses (e.g., commercial freezing and commercial and domestic air conditioning) could be calculated and supplementary scheduling of thermal power planned and followed up with the optimum acquisition and stockpiling of thermal fuels (oil, coal, or gas). 45/ In the event that severe reductions of hydroelectric power capacity were forecast, hookups to power grids in adjacent powersurplus areas could be planned.
An efficiency increase of this magnitude might involve economies that would make otherwise marginal installations worth while to undertake. In an area such as the great arc of the Indian alluvial plain irrigated by the runoff from the Himalayas that flows down through flood-ravaged valleys, forecasts might result in great savings; however, in view of the general lack of historical weather data and loss calculation the possibility is highly speculative at present. Since several important river basin operations have already assumed international proportions (for example, the Niagara, Euphrates, Jordan, and Nile development projects), assessment and allocation of savings from long-range forecast programming would seem to be a matter for consideration and decision by an international organization, or at least by bilateral or multilateral negotiation between nations.
Decisions on the degree to which weather forecast data should be included in hydro-system planning and operations will require studies to:
• Determine the cost and benefits based on weather, geography, and water use.
• Develop methods, organization, and personnel to collect and process data necessary to explore the above sufficiently so that if long-range forecasts become possible they could be applied as soon as possible in previously determined high payoff areas.
To assess the potential economic impact of long-range forecasts, it will be necessary to study the following questions:
• If there are improvements in efficiencies, and therefore in economies, to whom should this saving accrue? If the research that will have produced the forecast capability has been done at public expense, who should benefit by the savings produced? In under developed countries, where capital accumulation is a critical requirement for growth, to what extent should distribution of this saving be to consumers, or kept concentrated to serve as an incentive to capital development? Could the additional return to capital from these undertakings be used as an incentive to in crease the flow of funds to projects that might have been considered marginal?
Fossil Fuel Resources
An improved prediction system could be expected to effect marked changes in the patterns of production, distribution and consumption of fossil fuels.
At the point of production, whether it be oil well, gas well, or coal mine, foreknowledge about seasonal weather-based demands would permit seasonal extraction and production fluctuations to be evened out. At the present time, production is based on an unperfect estimate of what the heating or cooling season will be like; during excessively cold or hot periods, there may be sharp increases or decreases in production. 46/ Additional production, of course, usually means overtime work and overtime pay, which may affect the level of profitability for the firm -- but also increases the take-home pay of the worker.
In the transportation sector, sudden increases in the demand for the shipment of a bulk commodity such as coal requires an immediate rescheduling of rail cars and trucks. If the increase is sharp enough, there is usually a lag between the time of critical need for coal and the time required to move the coal from the source to the final consumption point. In the case of petroleum and gas, there is an analogous problem because the through-put in pipe lines can be increased only up to a fixed maximum. Excessive oil demand is also met by increased tanker service, but tankers can be made available only in the event that the extra capacity can be transferred from idle capacity or be shifted from another market area. This takes time; if the need is critical, extra shipping cannot always be assembled quickly enough.
At the point of consumption, as a result of factors described above, in the short run only limited additional supplies of oil, gas, and coal can be made available. This can result in a competition-based price increase, or if the cold snap is sudden and severe enough, the demand may be largely unrequited, with consequences such as power failures, curtailing of services, and personal hardship. To avoid such situations, consumers who cannot afford to run out of fuel stockpile large quantities of coal or petroleum products -a power station, for example, may stockpile approximately a three-month supply during the winter. The problem of allocating fuels and having them on hand when needed will very likely become more pressing as world population grows and more people become dependent on urban utilities to protect them from weather. Thus there are implications for international planning of fuel production and allocation in conjunction with expected weather extremes. There would also seem to be implications for pricing and control.
The fossil fuel situation provides an unusually clear picture of the consequences of “weather guessing” and therefore research in this field to determine the effects of foreknowledge on the supply, distribution, and consumption points could be rewarding. Investigations should ascertain the circumstances under which better predicting would provide the basis for:
• Leveling-off of seasonal production variations, with consequent better production programming, greater ability to meet peak demands, and price decreases as a result of funds saved because stockpiling purchases need not be made at random.
• Overseas shipments of U. S. oil and coal when hardship winters have been predicted for other sections of the world. (There appear to be opportunities here to facilitate State Department programs to ease both price and human hardships in other areas of the world.)
• Feasible international arrangements for planning and allocating fuel in the light of expected weather extremes. Matters to be studied include the basis for organization for this task and means for negotiating prices and ownership arrangements of fuel production facilities; means for reconciling national policy and private interests in the face of foreknowledge about weather extremes and fuel shortages or overages would need study too.
In all of the foregoing discussion, no mention has been made of the highly complex costing, pricing, and production policies of the industry and the government (both state and federal). The activities of such groups as the Texas Railroad Commission-and the Interstate Oil Compact Commission, as well a, individual firm policies would undoubtedly affect production scheduling and price changes. Indeed, research is necessary to:
• Determine the likely role which such potent political and economic agencies may play in the light of better weather predicting techniques.
Implications for weather disaster mitigation
It would seem obvious that more precise weather monitoring and prediction capabilities would greatly increase the capacity to foresee and thereby mitigate weather disasters. However, the possibilities of mitigation actually depend on a variety of complicated factors which need study.
In the first place a distinction must be made between predictions of imminent disasters such as hurricanes, typhoons, tornadoes, and flash floods, and predictions of long-range disasters such as droughts and sustained floods. And it must be remembered that the availability of information regarding a likely forthcoming disaster does not insure its use, since other physical factors of the situation may determine what can be done in the time available, and social and psychological factors may determine what people are willing to do in the time available.
These factors are especially inhibitory in the case of the imminent disasters. Moreover, it is not at all clear to what extent prediction of imminent disasters can be improved. In the United States for instance, hurricanes are now detected well in advance, but how to chart their exact paths is still an unsolved weather mystery. So, too, for tornadoes, which are even more erratic in their paths.
A long-range disaster forecast could eliminate some of the crises-bred decisions and mistakes which occur when there is no foreknowledge, but other complex decisions, crises-bred by the atmosphere of the anticipated disaster, will offer their own set of difficulties. Societies and their governments might well be confronted with such problems as population shifts, labor force reallocations, stockpiling of disaster-compensating supplies, and the development of organizations for control, relocation, and recuperation.
Underlying all the above is the psychology and sociology of response to disaster predictions. There have been many studies in recent years, notably by the Committee on Disaster Studies of the National Research Council, which demonstrate conclusively that responses to disaster predictions are culture bound as well as personality-bound. 47/ This is evident in the fatalistic or religious attitude of many societies toward disasters, and in the various types of reluctance to act displayed in the face of predictions. Groups and persons have different ways of preparing for or denying the threat of disaster, and about the only conclusion that can be reached at present is that in no sense can it be concluded that the availability of disaster warning information would necessarily result in the desired behavior and the desired saving of life and property. 48/
Thus if weather disasters are to be mitigated by predictions and monitoring, research is necessary to determine:
• What needs to be done and what can be done to prepare for various types of imminent disasters at various levels of destruction, in whatever time would be available. Here it is necessary to examine
(a) the communication facilities and organization required to providethe requisite information soon enough, and
(b) the organizational and personnel equipment and possibly legalprocedures required to cope with emergency action. 49/
• By cost and benefits studies, what expenses would be associated with various degrees of implementation of the warning, and what actual savings would be obtained. Frequency of use should be considered, too.
• Alternative means for meeting these costs, especially in the light of the infrequent utilization of the facilities likely to be associated with a given type of disaster in a given locality.
• Patterns of local psychology and behavioral responses associated with forecasts of weather disasters. Here it is particularly important to understand the attitudes and values of the decision makers at various implicated levels with regard to implementation of a warning response capability. 50/
• Means that could be developed to alter characteristic responses to warnings -- if it appeared desirable to do so -- so that sufficient people would take advantage of the warnings to make the investment in implementation worth while.
• The appropriate role for local and national governments in providing adequate laws, organizations, and policing arrangements, as well as incentives for taking full advantage of the disaster information supplied.
Implications of competing weather forecasting systems
It has been emphasized that a forecasting capability of the sort described herein requires world-wide facilities and cooperation. Because the United States has developed the background and technology of weather satellite research to a high point (which possibly puts us in the lead in the field), cooperation with the United States might offer more advantages to other nations than competition would. However, once a long-range operation exists, the data could be differently interpretable -- as a result of privileged access to ground-based data, of deliberate intent to provide a different prediction, or, as is especially likely during the period of theory development, of honest differences in interpretation.
New opportunities for international cooperation will be provided -- and as well for political, psychological, and economic disruption during the period of forecast development. If the forecasts should differ between power blocs, a nation's choice of one prediction rather than the other might be interpreted as a demonstration of allegiance or of belief in the scientific superiority of that power bloc. Even in the absence of binding political allegiances, differences in predictions may sufficiently obscure the expected weather situation to produce, in some countries, a pattern of decisions regarding weatherdependent activities which may put one power bloc, represented by one forecast, in a better international position than the other. 51/
The opportunities for exploiting “tailored” weather predictions will depend in good part on who has control of the weather data accumulation and processing system, and who is the authority for the forecast. Research is desirable to explore:
• Opportunities and means for using forecasts -- if two or more sources should provide them -- to reinforce international cooperation between the competing capabilities.
• The opportunities for and costs of conducting international psychological, political, and economic warfare, and the means and costs of countering those activities antithetical to the United States and its allies.
The relative costs and benefits (in the light of the above two suggestions) of international ownership and/or control of a fore casting system compared to nation I or multinational control and/or ownership.
5. THE IMPLICATIONS OF TECHNOLOGICAL BY-PRODUCTS
IN WHATEVER TERMS the technological by-products of space activities may be defined, there is one characteristic that marks their relationship to the space effort: they provoke controversy. It is, for instance, often asserted that these various derivatives, methods, and devices may constitute one of the most important aspects of the space effort. Almost as often it is argued that if a “by-product” is actually significant it could be produced in a more efficient way than as an incidental result of the space effort.
When these derivatives were being considered from the standpoint of this report -- i.e., their implications, as a part of the space effort, for society -- it appeared necessary to pose two test questions to determine whether a specific by-product should be regarded as within the report's province.
(1) Is the by-product unique to the activities, by being either a product of them exclusively or one so emphasized by space activities as to be in effect a product? For example, computer technology would have gone on developing regardless of the advent of space activities. The incentive for devising increasingly more complex computers and ever smaller and more reliable parts for them does not fundamentally depend on the space effort, although motivations for putting money and effort into computer developments have been importantly stimulated by it. But since general computer developments began long before “space” became a concept to be conjured with and have continued in a myriad of other fields not concerned with space, they are not herein considered as technological byproducts of space activities.
In contrast, advances in telemetry have been vastly accelerated by and possibly almost completely dependent on the needs of space projects. No other on-going activity makes such demands on or provides so great an incentive to develop this technique -- wherein devices sense specific physical states of an object (e.g., temperature, acceleration, vibration), convert the sensing into electrical impulses that give a measure of the state of the object, and transmit these (usually via radio) to receivers which record or respond to the information. Thus telemetry is herein considered as a by-product.
(2) Does the introduction of the by-product confront society or parts of it with problems or opportunities different in degree or kind from those usually introduced by changing mass-production, consumer-oriented technology? In the process of seeking materials that would withstand reentry temperatures, a product was developed that turned out to be an attractive and effective material for pots and pans, of which millions of dollars worth were sold in 1959. However, it is difficult to see social or economic implications in such an application of a space product beyond those routinely confronting competitors and the consumers of improvements for traditional artifacts. Neither the direction nor style of behavior, corporate or private, is changed significantly by such byproducts. Similarly, it is difficult to foresee any special implications in the much-heralded television receiver that can hang like a picture on a wall. (Incidentally, apropos of the first criterion for inclusion in this chapter, this wall-TV will derive from the new electronics technology, which is frequently claimed as one of the most important by-products of space activities. Upon closer examination it is seen that space activities are only one of the many demands stimulating this expanding technology, but clearly not the cause of it.) On the other hand, some of the new plastic and metallo-plastic structural materials developed from the needs of space activities may make substantial inroads into the markets of natural metals and by so doing affect the livelihood of major sectors of the population and the trade posture of some nations. These are considered to be social implications.
Inherent in any technological development of course is the potential for unexpected and important effects on society, since no technology or object of technology operates by itself in generating its effects. In many cases utilization of the technology is almost totally dependent on other nontechnological factors in the society. 2/ It is even difficult to identify the many factors which in the past contributed to the eventual place of any innovation, be it idea or artifact. Thus our selection of technological byproducts to discuss for their presumed future implications is chiefly a reflection of the relative ease with which observers have been able to foresee or reject possible implications as well as the relative ease of making a fairly distinct separation between these products and other which probably would have been achieved in any case.
If one of the major rationales for space activities is to be the serendipic effects for society, it is desirable to do research to determine:
• Criteria for detecting and evaluating the cost and benefits of specific by-products of space activities. Among other things, such a study will need to develop methods to distinguish the “distant cousin” claims of relationship to space from those activities actually dependent on spaces/
No claims are made for what follows beyond the belief that in themselves the examples demonstrate the complexity of the problem of predicting social impact of primary products, much less by-products, and that those examples demonstrate the need for research on:
• How to establish, maintain, and operate “watchdog” groups to alert and inform appropriate authorities and organizations to the fore seen or discovered applications and consequences of space technology byproducts so that research or action can point the developments for the benefit of mankind. 4/
By-Product Uses
Telemetry
The chief by-product application of telemetering techniques would seem to be in situations where information is desired about an object whose condition for some reason cannot otherwise be easily queried -- whether because wire communication is not feasible or because the object is mobile or isolated. 5/ For example, the rapid transmission of biomedical information through very small devices to a receiver that processes and feeds back the reactions to the information has highly significant implications for the field of medicine.
Biomedical Applications
Experiments made some years ago notably demonstrated the utility of telemetered physiological information. 6/ With the coming of space flight, the technology advanced rapidly, under the necessity of providing measuring techniques, channel capacity, and transmission codes to the effects of space environments on living organisms. The consequent new telemetering equipment, ground receivers, and data processing systems, including computers, have in combination become complex and elaborate systems for rapid collection and relatively speedy analysis of newly collected data and information. In principle, these methods permit
(1) the recording of detailed physiological data,
(2) the “real time” recording of it,
(3) remote transcription and processing of it and,
(4) automatic or pre-programmed decision making on the basis of these steps.
Cardiac disorders will be used here to illustrate the possibilities, although obviously the applications and implications are far broader than those associated with this one disability. Medicine has made great progress in the therapeutic handling of many cardiac disorders, but a great deal of research is still needed to develop new diagnostic and therapeutic skills and techniques. It appears feasible in principle to implant surgically in the heart patient a microminiatured telemetering device that can pick up specific inputs reflecting conditions of the heart and of other organs pertinent to it and transmit the information, along with an identification code, to a computer analysis facility, These signals could be processed by the computer; if serious changes were evident, warning signals could be sent back to the patient, indicating appropriate action, Undoubtedly there are physiologically detectable and measurable indications of impending difficulties. which are not evident to the patient, to which the computer could respond. 7/ The computer could also signal the need for turning cases over to “live” doctors when incoming signals indicated the need for other than routine preprogrammed responses.
These preventive techniques depend upon the discovery of pertinent physiological indicators, the development of appropriate telemetering devices for patients, including compact power sources (see section on new power sources below)' and the attitudes of patients as well as doctors toward such an approach to medicine, Their use might free doctors for more specialized work, thus contributing substantially to the overeat! physical welfare of society. However, allocations of decision making between doctors and machines would imply not only major revisions in the legal and moral aspects of the doctor patient-society relationship but also substantial changes in the economics of medical care. Very probably the perceived nature of the problems would change during the intense discussion that would undoubtedly accompany the planning for such a transition.
If it appears technically feasible to meet the medical and engineering requirements for such a medical system in the next two decades, then research is desirable to:
• Ascertain the reactions, and the values and knowledge underlying them, among doctors and their patients and potential patients about this type of medical service, so that if deemed desirable, information programs could be developed to further the utility of such service.
• Plan for the appropriate changes in the supplementary education, training, and recruitment of doctors and related personnel.
• Determine the contingent social and technological prerequisites for implementing such a program. Specifically, what moral, legal, and economic problems must be solved and what social and technological methods can be used for solving them? Who has legal responsibility for machine decision that is in error? What facilities might be available for the person who does not trust computers for diagnosis but cannot afford a “live” doctor? At what point will machine diagnosis be considered accurate enough to replace the doctor? Who is legally liable for a malfunctioning piece of telemetering equipment?
• Determine the means and methods for establishing, operating, and funding the telemetering and computer facilities required.
Commercial Applications
It is obvious that telemetry has the potential of being useful in a number of commercial operations, but its application will depend upon the expansion of other related technologies, such as high-speed methods for data processing and data using compact long-lived power sources (probably of the kinds discussed later in this chapter), and means for controlling frequency interference. In conjunction with such techniques, telemetry may contribute for example, to more efficient coding operations, leading perhaps to a greater message capacity per channel per time and thereby permitting more communications of all sorts. in general, capabilities of all kinds for coordination and control could be extended.
Given the rapidly developing state of the art, research is desirable to:
• Examine the costs and benefits of specific potential uses of telemetry for commercial uses.
• Develop means for making these findings available to those who have incentives for applying them.
Telemetry of Individual Responses.
Both the exploits of man in space and the possibilities of medical use of the new technologies, as discussed above, suggest that man may more and more become “plugged into” his environment as just one more piece of equipment in a complex system. The implications of this -- whether for good or evil -must remain at present in the realm of speculation, because the situation is not enough definable to furnish measurable data. However, one idea that has been broached deserves special attention.
Given a more accurate knowledge of the physiological and behavioral correlates of physical and emotional stress (which will be discussed in the next section below),telemetry could in principle be used to monitor emotions. 8/ For psychological research and psychiatric therapy, the development could have great value. And on a large scale, such information could be most useful to any institution interested in appraising its behavior or that of its constituency -- but to democratic societies, at least, the idea would have unpalatable connotations. However, the prevailing attitudes (and which persons and groups hold them) as to whether a society so closely linking and organizing people and their activities (e.g., via telemetry, computers, and omnipresent communications) debased or enhanced the human condition would of course, profoundly affect the degree and direction of these developments, Thus, these by-products of space activities could produce attitudes either supportive or destructive of the society producing the products.
In general, any application of such devices would depend on the resolution of the profound, legal, ethical, moral, and organizational problems inherent in the developments/ It seems desirable, therefore, to begin at least to:
• Delineate systematically the specific economic, legal, social, and moral problems and opportunities implied in future society-machine relationships, so that opinion leaders and policy makers can be aware of what must be resolved and planned for prior to, during, and after major developments in this capability for communication and control.**
Stress research
Attempts to gather systematic knowledge about the capacities of the human being to cope with extreme physiological and psychological stress have encountered two major difficulties: (1) civilized societies do not approve of subjecting persons to the risks involved in situations of extreme stress simply to gather knowledge about the effects on the individual; (2) as behavioral scientists generally concede, it is hard (and perhaps impossible) to simulate deeply stressful situations -- if they are not perceived as “the real thing” by the participants the results are dubious. Thus, while we know that men can demonstrate almost incredible physical and mental stamina in real situations of stress, we have almost no systematic information on the matter.
Observations of man in space will provide a unique opportunity to expand our knowledge of stress reactions. Special methods, drugs and medicines, and equipment (including telemetry) will be developed for measuring stress, for coping with it, and possibly for using it positively. These all may have value for everyday health and perhaps provide mankind with radical insights into his make-up which will extend his presently “normal” facilities. The implications are of course moot at this time.
The process of acquiring this information may also have social consequences aside from the application of the medical and psychological knowledge gained. In the first place, it is likely that the systematic exploration of this problem will require further attention to the demonstrated abilities of other cultures (e.g., the yogis in India) to alter mental and physical states to cope with stress or to relate to their environment in ways different from or more effective than those used by western societies.-L/ The dissemination of knowledge about the philosophies and abilities of such other cultures will inevitably affect the philosophies of people in our society; in what ways, to what degree, and with what consequences are areas for later study. At present, the most that can be recommended is that sensitivity to these possibilities be maintained so that they can be studied and their implications assessed and prepared for as these changes develop.
In the second place, the deliberate subjecting of astronauts to stress in preparation for the conduct of space activities may alter attitudes toward such experiments on humans in general. The deliberate stressing of man may then be perceived and accepted as more “natural” than in the past, with possible implications both good and bad for ethics and morals.
Compact, long-lived, reliable power sources
A major technological requirement of all space vehicles is a compact electrical energy source operating reliably over long time periods. The power source must be able to energize equipment and to propel the vehicle. of the sources being developed, for which space activities provide the main incentive, three may or may not have other implications for society: 1) plasmas and magnetohydrodynamic devices, 2) solar power-, and 3) nuclear-powered thermionic converters. 11/
The use of magnetohydrodynamic devices as an earth-based power source is still in the realm of speculation. 12/ Should it be possible to build large generating facilities using the principle, there seems no reason to presume that significant social changes would result, aside from those associated with any increase of the availability of electric power.
Solar cells in principle could supply isolated instrumentation with power for long periods of time and hence might contribute indirectly to the development of new aspects of knowledge, for example, about the weather, the oceans, and the like, for which information must be sought in isolated areas. However, the necessity of protecting the cell surfaces without interfering with their light collecting ability and providing storage facilities for night and cloudy day operation presents problems from the standpoint of practical and economic use.
Space-stimulated nuclear power research has produced the SNAP-type thermionic converter. It is not clear that it would be competitive with more bulky but probably less expensive and less dangerous thermionic converters operating from more traditional heat sources. The nuclear devices do have the advantage of requiring neither storage units norheat sources, and appear more reliable than the usual forms of electrical generators; they may thus be of special value not only in isolated regions but also in localities where there are no facilities for electrical maintenance and repair but where the benefits of electricity are desired.
It has been suggested that the latter two power sources would be helpful in undeveloped regions. However, it is debatable whether the availability of electric power in relatively small quantities would significantly stimulate developments in such regions. Whether or not it is practical to introduce power to backward areas before the traditional indigenous patterns have been exposed to more easily understandable aspects of modern industrial cultures is a problem for study. Thus, to determine the potential usefulness of these devices, research is necessary to determine:
• For given cultures, the ancillary social and physical conditions that are necessary if the utilization of electrical power is going to make a significant contribution to the society.
• Whether the power sources and their associated environment would be culturally acceptable.
• Under what circumstances solar cells or SNAP devices would be economically feasible as power sources in comparison to other sources.
New fabricating materials
The development of new materials, including among them many synthetics and composites of synthetics and metals, reflects a concentrated effort to meet the special and unique requirements of space flight. Fabrics to be used must be light in weight, high in strength, resistant to temperature extremes -especially very high temperatures -- noncorrosive, and tolerant of multiple accelerations.
Reinforced plastics are being considered for increasingly wide use in missiles and other space vehicles. Silicones, polyesters, epoxy resins, and phenolics reinforced with a variety of materials -- asbestos, quartz fibers, graphite cloth, glass fiber, etc. -- show mechanical strengths far exceeding most common construction materials. A filament-wound, glass-reinforced epoxy resin has been developed with the ultimate strength of 130,000 pounds per square inch and density of 0.072 pounds per cubic inch giving it a strength/ weight ratio of 1,808,000 inches; to perform equally well, steel would have to have strength in the neighborhood of 500,000 psi, High-temperature inorganic polymers are also under investigation.
These materials may well have great utility for many more common fabricated items in which there is need for high strength, high temperature resistance, and long life, minimum wear, or light weight. Various plastics and new metal alloys could replace traditional fabricating metals, if the costs of the new materials should prove to be competitive with the costs of steel, aluminum, and the like -- especially if easily available sources of the older metals are consumed and as international competition for them grows. Should the change occur, not only might price levels be affected, but the total sequence of production -- mining the ore, producing the metallic sheets, bars, and forms, fabricating the final product -- would necessarily change.. In particular, the availability of synthetics might mean the disruption of communities now existing at raw material extraction and processing sites.
The technological impact would also affect the skills and numerical distribution of labor. And the long life of products utilizing these new materials would substantially lower replacement requirements, with maintenance and service personnel correspondingly reduced. International trade patterns would alter if some nations no longer desired to import the traditional fabricating metals and if other nations found the demand for their exports of raw or refined metals reduced.
The above is supposition, of course, and it is by no means certain that the demand for metals will be reduced, since more and more nations seem to be developing needs for metals of all kinds. But the new fabricating materials seem likely to become eventually a part of the industrial scene. Research therefore would seem appropriate to determine:
• Which of the new space-stimulated fabricating materials have characteristics which make them functionally and economically competitive with traditional materials.
• What the readjustment problems may be for the personnel associated with possibly displaced operations.
• What implications for international trade may be.
• What should be the role of government in aiding both the development of new materials and the readjustment of industries and personnel possibly displaced
High Reliability Components
Understandably, high reliability is not overwhelmingly important to space activities. The space effort has greatly stimulated the development of methods for attaining high reliability in all parts and systems. To the extent that this results in new manufacturing, design, and/or utilization philosophies that can also be applied outside the space area, the implications may be of great importance for other sectors of society. (The implications of highly reliable radio and TV receivers are discussed in Chapter 3.)
Highly reliable components applied to products in general use have the potential for reducing the wear-out and break-down rate of commodities designed for a consumption-oriented society. Repair and service personnel would be less needed, and their skills could be applied to other technical fields. Products which could survive for many years would present major marketing problems for those manufacturers of consumer goods who depend on malfunctions, style changes, wear-out, and the costs of repairs to stimulate purchases of new products as replacements. However, the transition to ultrareliable consumer goods could free resources for other than the replacement of worn-out or faulty equipment.
Whether or not the techniques for attaining the order of reliability magnitude required by space activities are applicable to consumer goods -- or would be applied to them or demanded for them if applicable -- remains to be seen. It is clear that a number of major economic and social considerations would be involved. Since coping with the possible changes in production and consumption would be a complex matter, the potential implications of these developments merit study, It would be well to examine:
• The role of equipment reliability in consumer consumption and replacement rates.
• The cost and benefits studies of increases in reliability at various steps in the production-consumption sequence.**
Alternative uses for resources and types of personnel that might be freed by specific improvements in reliability.
• The implications of shifts in producer and consumer attitudes toward consumption of highly reliable products, especially in the light of other demands for national resources in the years ahead.
Closed ecological systems
Research on and application of closed ecological systems, which support man by reprocessing waste into food, water, and air, have been greatly accelerated by space activities. While this technology might be applied to society at large if defense considerations required living in sealed sites underground, and while the techniques could in principle be used to augment food and water supplies and serve at the same time as garbage disposal facilities, there would seem to be for the foreseeable future sufficiently easier and more effective ways to meet the food, water, and air needs of mankind on this planet. Thus, the social implications of this by-product are minimal.
Propulsion
While rocket propulsion is not uniquely a product of space activities, certainly most of the stimulus for it has come from that source. There have been many suggestions for non-space uses of rockets -- among them human and freight transportation, aircraft lifting and braking, and hoisting of construction materials in situations where high thrust for short time periods would be helpful.
Most of the suggestions have a certain implausibility about them. It seems to be assumed, for instance, that “getting there faster” will make rockets attractive as a means of transportation. However, even should the state of the art in principle permit such travel, it is doubtful that within twenty years rockets would be comfortable enough or their schedules maintained with sufficient precision to make them more attractive than jet transport.
High-speed shipment of freight would be worthwhile only if the time and cost required to prepare a package and transport it to the launching site (which would have to be well away from urban areas for safety as well as for reduction of the noise to a tolerable level), plus the time and cost required to unpackage and tranship to the place of use were less than the time and cost associated with more familiar forms of transportation. (“Packaging” includes “shaping” the item, through dismantling or initial design considerations, to fit the payload container, and protecting it from acceleration, Vibration, sonic, and impact damage.) Further, except perhaps in certain emergency situations, routine commercial shipments would seem to have little need for transport at such speed. Even in emergency cases, it does not follow that the item would necessarily be designed for or be capable of quick packaging for rocket transport or that a stand-by rocket capability would be feasible.
Aircraft lifting and braking rockets seem to be plausible developments, especially if there are commercial incentives for using jets at airports with short runways and if vertical take-off and landing craft are not developed. It is not clear what the consequences for society would be of being able to move more rapidly to and from areas now restricted to non-jet transport. However, shorter runways might mean less acreage devoted to airports, with local consequences for land use and taxes.
The recent use of helicopters to hoist construction materials in crowded building areas has stimulated speculation of the similar use of small rockets. The requirements for noise control and safety have not been evaluated, however, and until they are the idea will remain in the realm of speculation.
It should be evident from the above discussion that the possible social payoffs of rocket propellants in the next two decades are by no means obvious at this time, chiefly because the state of the art, the criteria for commercial use, and the social need are all still insufficiently defined. However, when these factors clarify, studies might be undertaken to evaluate various speculations on application and contingent social contexts.
Guidance techniques
The extreme requirements for precision guidance demanded by space activities have profoundly accelerated developments in this field. There has been much correlative speculation about the applications of these techniques to more earthbound activities. The ideas broached have had to do with displacing the human as the guidance system in everything from automobiles to ocean liners. 13/ Aircraft planes and ships could in principle use precision inertial and radio guidance now. For the foreseeable future the only practical guidance for automobiles would be a method involving a system of electronized highways, but it would be well to solve some of the many ancillary problems first. Traffic control systems will be required, for example, as well as various legal adjustments.
Should the application of automatic controls be widespread, personnel displacement, if not planned for, could create serious economic and social problems. 14/ However, the practicality of using guidance devices in certain cases may be questionable. In the case of ships, those who guide them have other tasks to perform as well. Given the cost of the automatic equipment and of maintaining it, the economic advantage of eliminating only the guidance part of the human job is not clear. As for aircraft, if it were not socially or technically feasible to eliminate the pilot altogether, it might be more practical to use him as he is used now.
In general, as with propulsion, the present picture is ill defined, but it seems fairly certain that automation devices of this type will have future application in a number of areas -- and not solely because the human imagination finds itself fascinated by them. Therefore, some study of the contingent social requirements for ship or aircraft use of fully automatic guidance might be undertaken; thus as the state of the art and social need clarify, there would be background understanding of the factors which then need careful study from the standpoint of cost and benefits.
6. IMPLICATIONS FOR GOVERNMENT OPERATIONS AND PERSONNEL USE
THE ORGANIZATION AND PERSONNEL requirements and problems of peaceful and scientific space activities differ in many aspects from these usually confronting a federal agency. An extraordinary number and variety of highly trained professional personnel are required. Very large funds are also required -- funds also coveted by other federal organizations and other programs in science and technology. The program organization of necessity obscures cherished distinctions between science and engineering, and between basic and applied research. The activities are important to both national and international goals, and as well to military, scientific, and commercial goals; therefore, they have significant implications for an unusual variety of other government agencies and may in turn be vitally affected by these agencies. In sum, an important consequence of the space effort is an imposing set of demands for efficient personnel utilization, for complex organizational arrangements, and for resolution of ambiguities in the relationship between space projects, science and technology, and policy making.
Of the sections of this chapter to follow, those on manpower and organization are presented largely from the standpoint of NASA's problems and opportunities. The section on science advisory activities has a more comprehensive context, because policy making is not the exclusive prerogative of NASA.
Manpower in Government Space Programs
The Second Hoover Commission report (1955), Personnel and Civil Service, pointed out with regard to the employment of scientists by the federal government that:
1. The personnel administration system of the federal government has serious defects when it is necessary to supply scientists.
2. The civil service system emphasizes positions rather than people, and these are classified, ranked, rated, and paid on the assumption that they can always be filled.
3. There is insufficient official recognition in laws, regulations, policies, and procedures that the government should meet the distinctive needs of this group.
4. New concepts, policies, and procedures are needed which are designed both to supply scientists to meet the needs of the federal government and to recognize the personalities and careers of such persons as individuals.
These admonitions are especially pertinent to space activities and to NASA as a major employer of scientific personnel. In what follows in this section, special attention will therefore be directed to research on possible “new concepts, policies, and procedures” for recruiting and maintaining the highly specialized personnel necessary to space programs.