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by Nathan Rao
November 08, 2016
from
Express Website
A 15-YEAR long mini ice
age
could be due to hit the
Northern hemisphere
in just FOUR years
as the sun prepares for
'hibernation'
- triggering a barrage of
cataclysmic events.
A team of experts have warned that huge seismic events, including
volcanic eruptions, plunging global temperatures and destabilization
of the Earth's crust will become more common after worrying changes
to the surface of the Sun were recorded.
It could take up to 15 years for solar activity to return to normal
with extreme weather and freezing temperatures continuing until
2035.
The warning will infuriate environmental campaigners who argue by
2030 the world faces increased sea levels and flooding due to
glacial melt at the poles.
Solar activity, measured by the appearance of sun spots, has been
declining at a greater rate than at any other time in history, it
has emerged.
The Sun is now without spots for the first time in five years after
21 days of minimal activity were observed through the course of
2016.
It could take 15 years
for solar activity to return to normal
Although spots reappeared sporadically during the summer, repeated
slumps of no activity were recorded through the year.
The trend has prompted scientists to warn that the world is hurtling
towards a historic
solar minimum event with output potentially
dropping to an all-time low.
The world could be facing a 15 year winter
GETTY
The phenomena are thought to drive extreme cold weather in Europe,
including Britain, Northern America and across the lower southern
hemisphere affecting New Zealand and parts of South America.
They have also been linked to major earthquakes in tremor hotspots
igniting fears that major cities including Tokyo and Los Angeles
could be facing the next 'big one'.
Research by the The Space and Science Research Center in Florida
revealed a strong link between low solar activity and seismic
events.
The study looked at volcanic activity between 1650-2009 and
earthquake activity between 1700-2009 comparing it to sunspots
records.
It revealed a terrifying correlation between reduced solar activity
and the largest seismic and volcanic events in recorded history.
Researchers at Japan's Institute for Cosmic Ray Research concluded
there is a link between global volcanic activity and solar activity
lows.
Study author Toshikazu Ebisuzaki said:
"Volcanoes with silica-rich
and highly viscous magma tend to produce violent explosive eruptions
that result in disasters in local communities and that strongly
affect the global environment.
"We examined the timing of 11 eruptive events that produced
silica-rich magma from four volcanoes in Japan (Mt. Fuji, Mt. Usu,
Myojinsho, and Satsuma-Iwo-jima) over the past 306 years (from AD
1700 to AD 2005).
"Nine of the 11 events occurred during inactive phases of solar
magnetic activity (solar minimum), which is well indexed by the
group sunspot number.
"This strong association between
eruption timing and the solar minimum is statistically
significant to a confidence level of 96.7 per cent."
The frequency of sunspots is expected to rapidly decline over the
next four years reaching a minimum between 2019 and 2020.
Solar expert Piers Corbyn of forecasting group WeatherAction warned
the Earth faces another mini ice age with potentially devastating
consequences.
He said:
"We are now in a decline of solar activity and are on
course for a very quiet period.
"This can cause a shift in the jet stream making it move further
south and as a result it turns very cold in temperate latitudes
including Europe, Britain and North America.
"We are
anticipating temperatures to drop leading to ocean water
freezing and ice drifts washing up around the coasts in Europe -
we expect the next mini ice age."
He said the link between huge changes in solar activity and
earthquakes is down to a reduction in the strength of magnetic
fields around the Earth.
Parts of the world will face
extreme freezing temperatures
and
oceans could turn to ice
Japan, America, the Philippines and quake prone regions of the
Middle East and Asia are about to be put on high alert, he warned.
He explained fewer solar flares associated with a minimum period
reduce the magnetic pull over the surface of the Earth.
This stops all movement of tectonic plates, even the frequent
harmless shifts which go unnoticed, allowing huge pressure to build
up underneath the Earths crust.
The result, Mr Corbyn said, is much like a pressure cooker with any
slightest movement triggering a massive earthquake.
"Think of it like comparing two bags of sugar being filled," he
said.
"If you have one with a small hole in the bottom it is constantly
emptying while more is being added so there is no overall effect.
Much of the world
could look like the world's current
coldest city
in Siberia
"The other has no hole so it gets fuller and fuller until eventually
it bursts, this is the sort of thing we are taking about.
"What we expect is fewer earthquakes overall, but more extremely
severe ones in at risk regions, and this is very worrying.
"Tokyo, Los Angeles and other big cities could all be looking at
the next big one."
Scientists predict the number of observed sun spots will continue to
decline over the next few years in the run up to 2020.
Eventually the 'blank period' will stretch into months triggering
the start of the next Solar Minimum likely to last 15 years.
It will mark the 24th cycle since 1755 when solar activity was first
recorded and the link made to climate and changes in terrestrial
conditions.
In Britain, the main threat is of a repeat of the last significant
solar minimum which triggered the infamous little ice age in the
1600s.
The so-called maunder minimum saw exceptionally harsh winters ravage
the UK and northern Europe and led to the River Thames freezing
over.
A Met Office-led study published last year claimed although the
effect will be offset by recent global warming, Britain could see
cooler than average winters in years to come.
A spokesman at the time said:
"A return to low solar activity not
seen for centuries could increase the chances of cold winters in
Europe and eastern parts of the United States but wouldn't halt
global warming.
"Return of 'grand solar minimum' could affect
European and eastern US winters."
Solar physicist David Hathaway, of NASA's Marshall Space Flight
Centre, added:
"The
solar minimum is coming, and it's coming sooner
than we expected."
Sunspot Cycle
...at
Lowest Level in 5 Years
November 17, 2016
from
SpaceWeather Website
The sun has looked remarkably blank lately, with few dark cores
interrupting the featureless solar disk. This is a sign that
Solar Minimum
is coming. Indeed, sunspot counts have just reached their
lowest level since 2011.
With respect to the sunspot cycle, you
are here:
more...
The solar cycle is like a pendulum, swinging back and forth between
periods of high and low sunspot number every 11 years.
These data from NOAA show that the
pendulum is swinging toward low sunspot numbers even faster than
expected. (The red line is the
forecast; black dots are actual measurements).
Given the current progression,
forecasters expect the cycle to bottom out with a deep Solar
Minimum in 2019-2020.
Solar Minimum is widely misunderstood.
Many people think it brings a period
of dull quiet. In fact, space weather changes in interesting
ways. For instance, as the extreme ultraviolet output of the sun
decreases, the upper atmosphere of Earth cools and
collapses.
This allows space junk to accumulate
around our planet.
Also,
the heliosphere shrinks,
bringing interstellar space closer to Earth; galactic cosmic
rays penetrate the inner solar system and our atmosphere with
relative ease.
Meanwhile, geomagnetic storms and
auroras will continue - caused mainly by solar wind streams instead
of CMEs.
Indeed, Solar Minimum is coming, but it
won't be dull.
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