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by Dr. Matthew
Wielicki
May 23, 2023
from
IrrationalFear Website
Source
Recently
three weather events
have been
portrayed as evidence
of climate
change...
So lets take a
closer look.
The difference
between weather and climate…
Weather and climate are related but distinct concepts that refer to
different aspects of the Earth's atmospheric conditions.
Here's a breakdown of the
key differences:
Weather:
Weather refers to the
short-term state of the atmosphere, including
conditions such as temperature, precipitation, humidity, wind
speed and direction, cloud cover, and atmospheric pressure.
Weather conditions
can change rapidly and are typically observed over a short
period, ranging from minutes to weeks.
Weather forecasts
provide predictions about the expected atmospheric conditions in
the near future, usually up to a few days.
Climate:
Climate refers to the
long-term average of weather patterns observed
over a significant period, typically many decades to centuries
or more.
It encompasses a
broader and more stable view of atmospheric conditions within a
specific region or across the globe.
The climate is
determined by factors such as solar radiation, geographic
location, ocean currents, topography, and atmospheric
concentrations.
Climate characterizes
the typical and expected weather patterns, seasonal variations,
and overall trends in temperature and precipitation for a
particular area.
So, weather represents
the day-to-day variation in atmospheric conditions, while climate
represents the long-term average and patterns of weather over an
extended period.
Weather focuses on
immediate conditions, while climate provides a broader perspective
on the characteristic weather patterns of a region or the planet as
a whole.
Source
Can weather
events be attributed to climate?
No single weather event can be directly attributed to climate
change, however, scientists can analyze the influence of climate
change on the likelihood or severity of certain events.
This is done through
'attribution studies', which examine how the probability or
intensity of a specific event has been altered by climate
change.
These studies assess the
observed event in comparison to historical data, climate models, and
statistical analysis.
How accurate
are 'attribution studies'?
'Attribution studies',
have become very
popular in recent years, claiming to enhance our understanding
of the role of climate change in influencing extreme weather
events...
However, their accuracy
and precision can vary depending on the specific event, available
data, and methodologies used.
Confidence levels or
statistical probabilities are commonly overestimated to indicate a
high degree of confidence in the findings.
Multiple lines of
evidence, including,
-
observed data
-
historical
records
-
climate models
-
statistical
analysis,
...are required to
strengthen the robustness of the conclusions.
Accuracy
can vary regionally due to factors such as data quality, regional
climate dynamics, and the ability of models to capture
regional-scale processes.
In fact, a recent
pre-print submitted to the Elsevier journal family titled, “Selection
Bias in Extreme Event Attribution Studies” states…
Existing work on
overcoming selection bias in extreme-value statistics has
implications for attribution analysis.
Indeed, when such a
bias exists, not taking it into account in the forecast
evaluation or event attribution can lead to poor, unstable,
return level estimates, to seriously biased estimates of return
periods for extreme observations, and hence to potentially
misleading conclusions.
Conditioning of the
likelihood term uses contextual information more appropriately
and hence provides more reliable findings.
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