by Roger Higgs
September 23, 2021
Data Analysis Center
mimic solar variations (150-year delay), absolving CO2,
portending 50 cooler years, confirming NASA-HadCRUT
inflated 1980-2020 warming
Published high-resolution graphs of solar activity and Greenland
temperatures (proxies; Wu, Vinther) of the last 9,000 years (9ky)
strongly correlate visually, with clearly matching spikes and
centennial-millennial trends (Slide
(Contrast Marcott graph of global Holocene temperature, spikeless
due to lower resolution and smoothing, Slide 2 inset).
The correlation is even
clearer after back-tilting (de-trending) the temperature graph to
compensate for long-term cooling by Earth's declining obliquity
(Slide 2 inset).
Image: Herrera et al 2015
An obvious temperature delay of 100-200y (Slide 2) is attributable
to oceanic thermal inertia (vast heat capacity, slow AMOC global
circulation; cf. Abdussamatov 15-20y theoretical lag).
The lag aligns, for
example, the 8.2-kiloyear event cooling-warming couplet (nadir
6210BC) with an exceptional solar grand minimum-maximum couplet
(nadir 6435BC), and aligns Modern 'Warming' (from 1850; ongoing
recovery from Sun-driven Little Ice Age) with the Sun's 1695-1958 AD
Likewise the strongest in 9ky (Slide 2).
Focusing on the last 1ky,
solar output (Brehm) matches global temperature (PAGES2k); 150-200y
lag aligns the Little Ice Age (1440-1920) and the
Wolf-through-Maunder solar minima (1270-1720;
Lastly, the NASA and
HadCRUT near-identical global
thermometer graphs mimic the smoothed 1700-2020 sunspot series;
140-160y lag aligns their respective modern surges and multi-decade
downturns (e.g. 1795-1820 Dalton Minimum equates to 1945-75 cooling;
Exposing NASA-HadCRUT inaccuracy, the correlation predicts roughly
equal warmth for the1930-50 ('dustbowl') and 2000-20 warm spells
(based on equality of their corresponding solar 'humps'; Slide 4),
but NASA-HadCRUT claim 2000-2020 was far (~0.7C°) warmer (Slides
5, 6), this despite their own Arctic differential being
less (~0.5C°; Slide 5), violating polar amplification.
The 2000-2020warm interval follows (and continues) 20yof land
(surface-air) warming supposedly twice as fast as sea-surface
Slides 4, 6); inexplicably this
began abruptly (1980; Slide 6).
Such land-sea decoupling is impossible because SST dictates average
land-air temperature (Humlum; presumably by advection of sea air
warmed [or cooled] by the sea), as evidenced also by their equality
(within error) up until 1980 (Slide
This confirms NASA-HadCRUT
inflated post-1980 land temperatures by improper urbanization
adjustments (McKitrick, Richard, Heller, Connolly).
In the entire 9ky, the
only resemblance between CO2 and temperature is their
simultaneous surge from ~1850 (Industrial Revolution onset) (Slide
But CO2 is accelerating, unlike warming (except
manipulated land graph, Slide 6); and CO2 does not
express the 1880-1910 and 1945-75 coolings, or the 1998-2012 hiatus
(Slide 7); nor does it express any of the pre-1850 warmings that
rivaled Modern Warming's rate (Slide 7).
Thus our Sun drives
climate (Denton); CO2's theoretical greenhouse-warming
potential, already (at 400pm) reduced "well into the saturation
regime" (van Wijngaarden), must be cancelled by negative feedbacks
Knowing oceanic lag is
~150y enables temperature prediction.
Cooling in progress since the2016 warm peak (equates to 1870 peak of
Sunspot Cycle 11, Slide 4) will last another 5-10y (Cycle 11 to 12
Relative coolness will
ensue for 50-60y (weak Cycles 12-16).
Subsequent warming (rise
from Cycle 16) will climax ~2110 (~150y after Cycle 19 sunspot
superpeak of 1958) or 2140 (Cycle 22 magnetic superpeak 1991),
depending on which solar property drives climate (Svensmark).
Maximum temperatures will possibly exceed those of 6600-5600BC (Slide
of cooling will follow
(ongoing solar decline since 1958/1991;