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by Prof. Michel Chossudovsky
March 31,
2018
from
GlobalResearch Website
Reminiscent of
World War I, shifting alliances and the structure of
military coalitions are crucial determinants of history.
Today's military alliances, including "cross-cutting
coalitions" between "Great Powers" are equally dangerous,
markedly different and exceedingly more complex than those
pertaining to World War I. (i.e. the confrontation between
"The Triple Entente" and "the Triple Alliance").
Contemporary developments point to a historical shift in the
structure of military alliances which could contribute to
weakening U.S. hegemony in the Middle East as well as
creating conditions which could lead to a breakup of the
North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
NATO constitutes a formidable military force composed of 29
member states, which is largely controlled by the Pentagon.
It is a military
coalition and an instrument of modern warfare. It
constitutes a threat to global security and World peace.
Divisions within the Atlantic Alliance could take the form
of one or more member states deciding to "Exit NATO".
Inevitably an
NATO-Exit movement would weaken the unfolding consensus
imposed by our governments which at the this juncture in our
history consists in threatening to wage a pre-emptive war
against the Russian Federation.
Shift in
the Structure of Military Coalitions.
Turkey's
Alliance with Russia, China and Iran?
In this article, we will largely be addressing a concrete case of a
NATO member state's intent to exit the Atlantic Alliance NATO,
namely Turkey's "NATO-Exit" and its evolving rapprochement with
Russia as well as with Iran and China.
Turkey is contemplating a "NATO-Exit", the implications of which are
far-reaching. Military alliances are being redefined.
In turn, Turkey in Northern Syria is fighting against America's
proxy Kurdish forces, i.e. one NATO member state is fighting another
NATO member state.
Russia's stance in relation to Turkey's military actions in Northern
Syria is ambiguous. Russia is an ally of Syria, whose country has
been invaded by Turkey, an ally of Russia.
From a broader military standpoint, Turkey is actively cooperating
with Russia, which has recently pledged to ensure Turkey's security.
"Moscow underscores
that Turkey can calmly withdraw from NATO, and after doing so
Ankara will have guarantees that it will not face any threat
[from U.S.-NATO] in terms of ensuring its own security."
According to statement of Turkish Air Force
Major-general Beyazit Karatas - ret
Moreover, Ankara will be
acquiring in 2020 Russia's state of the art S-400 air defense system
while de facto opting out from the integrated U.S.-NATO-Israel air
defense system.
The S-400 deal is said to
have caused "concern",
"because Turkey is a
member of NATO and the (S-400) system cannot be integrated into
NATO's military architecture".
Russia's
S-400 Triumf (NATO reporting
name: SA-21 Growler) is the latest long-range antiaircraft
missile system that went into service in 2007.
It is designed to
destroy aircraft, cruise and ballistic missiles, including
medium-range missiles, and surface targets. The S-400 can engage
targets at a distance of 400 kilometers and at an altitude of up
to 30 kilometers.
Tass,
December 29, 2017
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What does this
mean?
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Has NATO's
"heavyweight" (in terms of its conventional forces) namely
Turkey chosen to exit the Atlantic Alliance?
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Or is Turkey
involved in an alliance of convenience with Russia while
sustaining its links with NATO and the Pentagon?
The Atlantic Alliance is
potentially in shatters.
Will this lead to a NATO
Exit movement with other NATO member states following suit?
Moscow's intent in this regard, through diplomatic channels is to
build upon bilateral relations with selected EU-NATO member states.
The objective is to contribute to NATO "military de-escalation" on
Russia's Western frontier.
Apart from Turkey, several EU countries including,
...could contemplate a
NATO-Exit.
Turkey's "Rapprochement" with Russia is strategic.
While playing a key role
in the Middle East, Turkey also controls naval access to the Black
Sea through the Dardanelles and the Bosphorus.
In other words, Turkey's withdrawal from NATO would have an
immediate impact on NATO's land and naval deployments in the Black
Sea basin, which in turn would affect NATO military capabilities on
Russia's doorstep in,
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Eastern Europe
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the Baltic States
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the Balkans
Needless to say, the
Moscow-Ankara alliance facilitates the movement of Russian and
Chinese naval forces to and from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean
via the Bosphorus.
Turkey's realignment is not limited to Russia it also includes Iran
as well as Pakistan, which is in the process of severing its
military ties with the U.S., while extending its trade and
investment relations with China.
Pakistan as well as India
are full members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).
The broader structure of military as well trade/investment alliances
must also be addressed, including maritime routes and pipeline
corridors.
U.S. Influence
and Hegemony in the Broader Middle East
These geopolitical shifts have served to weaken U.S. influence in,
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the Middle East
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Central Asia
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South Asia
Turkey has an alliance of
convenience with Iran.
And Iran in turn is now
supported by a powerful China-Russia block, which includes military
cooperation, strategic pipelines as well extensive trade and
investment agreements.
In turn, the unity of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States is now in
jeopardy, with,
...building an alliance
with Iran (as well as Turkey), to the detriment of Saudi Arabia and
the UAE.
Saudi Arabia's economic blockade directed against Qatar has created
a rift in geopolitical alliances which has served to weaken the U.S.
in the Persian Gulf.
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)
is profoundly divided, with the UAE and Bahrain siding with Saudi
Arabia against Qatar. In turn Qatar has the support of Oman and
Kuwait.
Needless to say, the GCC
which until recently was America's staunchest Middle East ally
against Iran is in total disarray.
U.S. Central
Command Military Base in Qatar
While Turkey is deploying troops in Qatar, it has also established
the Tariq bin Ziyad military base in Qatar (in cooperation with the
Qatari Ministry of Defense) under an agreement signed in 2014.
The Qatar based Al Udeid U.S. military facility is the largest in
the Middle East. Under
USCentCom, it hosts the command
structure of all U.S. military operations in the entire Middle
East-Central Asian region.
Al Udeid - which houses some 10,000
U.S. military personnel - has played a strategic role in the ongoing
conduct of U.S. air operations against Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria.
There is however a fundamental contradiction:
America's largest
military base in the Middle East which hosts USCentCom is at
present located in a country which is firmly aligned with Iran
(i.e. an enemy of America).
Moreover, Qatar's
main partners in the oil and gas industry including pipelines
are Iran and Turkey. In turn, both Russia and China are actively
involved in the Qatari oil and gas industry.
In response to Qatar's rapprochement with Iran, the Pentagon has
already envisaged moving its Central Command headquarters at the Al
Udeid Air Force base to the
Prince Sultan Air Force base in
central Saudi Arabia, 80 km south of Riyadh.
The structure of military alliances pertaining to Qatar are in this
regard strategic.
Why? Because Qatar is a Geopolitical Hot Spot, largely
attributable to its extensive maritime reserves in natural gas which
it shares with Iran.
Iran and Qatar cooperate actively in the extraction of maritime
natural gas under a joint Qatar-Iran ownership structure. These
maritime gas fields are strategic, they constitute the World's
largest maritime gas reserves located in the Persian Gulf.
NOTE: For
further details, see Michel Chossudovsky, "Middle
East and Asia Geopolitics - Shift in Military Alliances?,"
Global Research, September 30, 2017
In March 2018, Washington demanded that Qatar's Al Jazeera News
agency register in the U.S. as a "Foreign Agent" intimating that
Doha has an "alliance" with enemies of America, including Iran and
Russia.
Is this not a prelude to "Qatar-Gate" under the helm of Trump's
newly instated "war cabinet" (with Pompeo taking over from
Tillerson at the State Department)?
Screen shot
Middle East
Monitor
March 9, 2018
In November 2017, Qatar's Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin
Abdulrahman Al Thani intimated during a visit to Washington
that,
"Qatar does not rule
out the possibility of a Saudi-led military operation against
it".
While this option is
unlikely, a "regime change" in Doha sponsored by the U.S. and its
Saudi ally is a distinct possibility.
The Incirlik
Air Force Base in Southern Turkey
Meanwhile, the Pentagon is envisaging moving U.S. Air Force
facilities and personnel out of the
Incirlik base in southern Turkey:
Earlier in March,
Johnny Michael, the spokesperson for the U.S. European
Command (EUCOM),
denied "speculative" reports that the U.S. military reduced its
operations at Incirlik base, adding that all military activities
continued normally.
A day before Michael's remarks, a Wall Street Journal report
suggested that the U.S. "sharply reduced" combat operations at
the airbase and was considering permanent cutbacks there.
Al
Jazeera, March 26, 2018
Concluding
Remarks
With NATO in
shambles, America's "war hawks" do not have a leg to stand
on.
The alliance between Washington and Ankara is in crisis. NATO is in
crisis. In turn, a Turkey NATO-Exit could potentially destabilize
NATO. We are at a dangerous crossroads.
The U.S.-NATO military
agenda threatens the future of humanity.
"NATO-Exit" could become
a rallying call, a movement which could spread across the European
landscape.
Both the European and North American anti-war movements should
concretely focus their grassroots campaign on country-based
"NATO-Exit" with a view to breaking the structure of military
alliances required by Washington to sustain its
global military agenda.
No easy task. This movement will not emanate from the governments.
Most of the heads of State and heads of government of NATO member
countries have been co-opted.
Moreover, many of the West's civil society organizations and NGOs
(financed by corporate foundations) are tacitly supportive of
U.S.-NATO "humanitarian wars".
What this means is that the anti-war movement has to be rebuilt...
Video
Shift in the structure of
military coalitions
- Turkey's NATO Exit
and the
New Turkey Russia Alliance -
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