|
from
ForeignPolicyJournal Website
(US Air Force/Public Domain) could prove to be the best substitutes for foreign aid and could decrease the country's dependence on donor countries and foreign support. These resources, if properly managed, provide an opportunity for Afghanistan to write its own story of economic success.
But they also threaten to fuel conflict. In a country already plagued by rampant corruption, active insurgency, and lack of infrastructure and institutions, Afghanistan's minerals represent yet another possible source of instability.
Through illegal mining,
millions of dollars are funneled into the pockets of armed groups,
insurgents, and strongmen, while only a tiny fraction of the wealth
generated from these projects have benefitted the Afghan people.
[2]
Mining could boost the Afghan economy while profiting U.S. companies. Most notably, it could provide American firms access to crucial rare earth minerals, production for many of which has been dominated by China.
However,
with the insurgents' increasing influence and illegal mineral
exploitation on the rise, Afghanistan's minerals represent not only
a lost opportunity, but a threat to the national security of the
country.
In
order to realize this potential, mineral sector needs considerable
attention both from the Afghan government and international
community, particularly the United States.
This includes vast reserves of,
In the north and south, there are several hydrocarbon sites.
The country also has massive deposits of dimension stone. The deposits of copper and iron ore are some of the largest in the world, ranging from 60 to 2,200 million tons, respectively. [4]
The U.S. Department of Defense's
Task Force
for Business and Stability Operations (TFBSO) estimated that the
reserves of oil and natural gas "could be worth more than $220
billion."
U.S. geologists found an intriguing series of old charts and data at the library of the Afghan Geological Survey in Kabul collected by Soviet mining experts during the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan in the 1980s.
Armed with these old Russian charts and data, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) launched an extensive scientific survey for minerals. It was the most comprehensive geological survey of Afghanistan ever conducted. [6]
Over 43 days and 23 flights, the USGS flew nearly 23,000 miles to collect data.
Through airborne missions to conduct magnetic, gravity and hyper-spectral survey over Afghanistan, they flew over about 70 percent of the country. [7]
A research modified
Lockheed NP-3D "Orion" aircraft was used for the survey and
exploration of mineral resources in Afghanistan. The aircraft was
equipped with geophysical and remote sensing instruments. [8]
For example,
In other words, Afghanistan could become "the Saudi Arabia of lithium," [11] an important raw material used in the manufacturing of batteries for laptops and smartphones.
Rare earth elements (REEs) have become an essential part of modern technology and are used in cell phones, televisions, computers, lasers, batteries and superconductors.
Congressional
findings have called REEs critical to U.S. national security. REEs
are key to the production of tank navigation systems, missile
guidance systems, missile defense components, satellites and
military communications systems.
The biggest deposits discovered are iron and copper, which are estimated to be large enough to make Afghanistan a major world producer of both.
According to the World Bank, revenue from mines in two sites - the Aynak copper deposit and the Hajigak iron deposit could,
The findings clearly show the enormous size and variety of
Afghanistan's mineral wealth, which could transform the country into
a world leader in the mineral sector.
But, if those resources are not managed effectively, it could deepen the country's conflict or even help cause a civil war.
It has been 17 years since the American invasion in 2001, and 39 years since the Soviet Union invasion in 1979. The country is still grappling with more than 20 insurgent and terrorist groups.
Currently it is in the midst of an active insurgency by the Taliban and other radical militant and terrorist groups including,
Taliban insurgents, warlords and corrupt politicians are all a major threat.
In some instances, these
actors bond together to exploit mineral resources because they have
a shared interest.
Due to insecurity and limited presence of the government in some parts of the country, warlords, insurgents and politicians are involved in illegal exploitation of minerals.
According to a United Nations Security Council committee report from February 2015, minerals have become the Taliban's second biggest source of income after illegal narcotics. [15]
Through illegal mining,
millions of dollars are funneled into the pockets of armed groups,
insurgents, and strongmen, while only a tiny fraction of the wealth
generated from these projects have gone to benefit the Afghan
people. [16]
Mineral resources play an important part in funding the current insurgency.
For instance, the Taliban take a significant cut of the profits from mining and tax almost all forms of economic activity in areas under their control.
Most notably, this includes,
Afghan government coffers see very little income from the mining sector, and there are an estimated 1,400 illegal mines in the country to the May 2016 Global Witness report,
In 2014, the two mining areas of Deodarra and Kuran wa Munjan in Badakhshan province alone provided around $20 million to armed groups. [21]
Mineral resources are thought to be the Taliban's second-largest source of revenue, while contributing less than one percent of state income in 2013. [22]
Without a robust and practical strategy, mineral resources could turn into a chronic source of conflict and corruption.
This is a big possibility in Afghanistan, where according to the new data released by US forces in Afghanistan, 30% of districts are contested or are under the insurgent influence. [23]
According to a 2014 mining industry study, some of the most promising deposits of lithium are in the eastern province of Ghazni and the southern region of Helmand province, which are largely under the control of Taliban.
Furthermore, in some areas the local warlords and strongmen have more influence compared to the government. State and non-state actors finding sanctuary in the restive and volatile border regions of Afghanistan increases the probability of conflict.
Resource rich countries plagued by civil war experience war for longer time compared to resource poor countries. [24]
Conflicts create war
economies when some parts of a country are controlled by rebels,
warlords and insurgents. Members of armed groups benefit from
looting, thus using violence in order to maintain their control and
access to resources.
Gemstones and drugs, which are easily extracted and traded, are more attractive for the armed groups.
Conflicts sometimes are sparked over mining activities in remote areas of the country. Groups are in competition to counter each other, and in some instances, weaker communities have invited Taliban elements for their protection.
With the recent emergence of
ISIS in Afghanistan, the country's mining sector is now facing a
renewed threat.
It is unclear whether ISIS, which is trying to gain a foothold in Afghanistan, will stand against the Afghan government.
However, it is entirely possible that ISIS will seek to tap the country's poorly monitored mining industry to fund their primary operations in Iraq and Syria. [26]
The
deteriorating security situation has provided more favorable
conditions for ISIS. If left uncontrolled, ISIS and Taliban
insurgents may pose a major threat through the exploitation of
Afghanistan's vulnerable mines, as it will provide them with funding
for their operations elsewhere.
For instance, Helmand province, rich in chromite and one of the largest opium-producing provinces, has faced fierce fighting in the past decade.
Some of the districts in this province are under the control of Taliban insurgents.
Badakhshan province, which is famous for its gold and azure mines, and Kunar and Nuristan provinces, which have large deposits of precious stones, have experienced fierce fighting because insurgents in those territories are particularly focused on and attracted by the large deposits of precious stones.
This is a dangerous move by the insurgents to seek control of the areas from where they can extract millions of dollars to fund their war machinery.
Access to resources has made civil war all the more likely.
Research shows that there is a statistical correlation between natural resource endowment and incidence of civil war. [27]
The resources themselves often give rise to violent conflicts for control over them. Often conflicts arise in response to various actors' attempts to control extractive mining sectors. Because of easy extraction and major wealth generated through mines, resource conflict is always a possibility.
Resources constitute an opportunity for easy profit by individual and armed groups.
Thus,
those who have an economic agenda and who are willing to take up
arms want access to these resources to derive profits from their
extraction and sale. Areas where criminal and insurgent networks are
strongly involved are more vulnerable to conflict.
In April 2015, the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR), an independent U.S. government body, released a report acknowledging that Washington,
Since 2009, USAID and the Defense Department's Task Force for Business and Stability Operations (TFBSO) have provided $488 million toward the nation's extractive industries. [29]
These funds, SIGAR explained, did nothing to build a viable and well-regulated mining industry in Afghanistan.
The US government, including USAID and the Department of Defense, had failed in its mission to help create,
Illegal mining is rampant throughout Afghanistan, with more than 2,000 such sites raising money for warlords and the insurgents. [31]
A SIGAR report found that illegal mining has been costing the state up to $300 million annually since the Taliban's collapse in 2001. [32]
Insecurity in eastern Nangarhar province and elsewhere
prompted Minister Saba to warn Afghan lawmakers in 2015 that
monitoring the thousands of mines around the country is impossible,
and that the complete and unrestrained looting of local resources
might happen in the absence of a peace deal with the Taliban.
If robust policies coupled with a comprehensive, realistic and long-term strategic approach are not adopted, there is a significant possibility that Afghanistan will slide into a resource curse and succumb to the same historical cycle of conflict and civil war that most African countries grapple with now.
With these challenges, it seems that achieving economic stability through the exploitation of these resources will be a challenging task for the Afghan government.
Mining in a country like Afghanistan, which has spent decades riled by conflict, will not be easy without a strong commitment from the Afghan government and the international community.
Better management of mineral
resources could result in sustainable economic growth and pave the
way for a lasting peace.
However, since mining is the Taliban's second-largest source of funding, the insurgent group might use this US involvement as an attempt to stir up resentment against American troops present in Afghanistan.
Rampant corruption in the country is
another big challenge. This not only undermines the effectiveness of
Afghan security forces and the legitimacy of the government, it is
also a big impediment to the path of economic development - and the
mining sector is no exception.
Mineral rights should be well-defined and a clear legal framework for attracting foreign investment should be established.
The Afghan government, with support from the
international community, should formulate a long-term, realistic,
strategic vision for the development of its nascent mineral sector.
The United Nations Sanctions Committee should begin investigating how mining wealth reaches insurgents and funds illegal armed groups.
The international community, particularly the United States, should work in collaboration with the Afghan government to encourage reforms and an effective mechanism of oversight and monitoring of the country's mineral resources.
Management of the mineral resources, which can foster economic development and stability, needs to be a core strategic priority.
Given the plethora of problems in Afghanistan, each step
of the process will need to be monitored strictly by the
international community and watchdog agencies to avoid corruption
and ethnic problems, and to ensure that the extraction translates
into success rather than turmoil or conflict.
So far,
most of the revenue from the natural wealth has gone to power
brokers, warlords and corrupt officials, instead of the Afghan
people and the government. Given current circumstances,
mismanagement of the country's resources could open another window
into violent conflict.
With around 14,000 American troops supporting the relatively new Afghan security sector, it will be hard for the Afghan government to secure all the country's mines.
Mining in a country like Afghanistan won't be easy
without a strong commitment from the Afghan government and robust
support from the international community.
These resources, if properly managed, provide an opportunity for Afghanistan to write its own story of economic success. Robust policies and strong institutional arrangements together with clear policy direction will help attract both domestic and foreign investors.
Better management of mineral resources could
result in sustainable economic growth paving the way for a lasting
peace.
References
|
