by Tom Luongo
As the week went along, however, it became clear that the responses from all concerned to this attack that the those that took responsibility for it, the Houthis in North Yemen 'backed by Iranian technology,' were the ones that did it.
And it all comes down to the same thing:
This is a $400 billion deal that is vitally necessary for Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) to pull off.
His plans to modernize the Saudi economy rest completely on this deal and keeping the price of oil from collapsing into the $50's or even $40's worldwide.
So while Saudi Arabia and Israel had incentives to stage a 'false flag,' Iran and its allies had even more incentive to cripple Saudi oil infrastructure to try and scuttle the Aramco IPO by bringing into question the kingdom's ability to control not only its borders but also its future production.
The threat to Saudi Arabia goes far beyond the Aramco IPO, however. The future of the country is at stake. Iran knows this, that's why it happened.
And every reaction so far to this story supports the latter theory than the former. So, as much as some would like to blame Israel in this life for everything bad that happens, I don't see it this time.
Look at it this way:
Because if the Aramco IPO fails this time around, the Saudis have a very limited time frame for solvency without drastically overhauling their financial system and monetary policy.
That's why there was the mad scramble to send Secretary of State Mike Pompeo over to Jeddah.
What do I mean by President Trump walking into a trap?
He announced he's moving troops into Saudi Arabia, specifically citing economic concerns:
This is a clear move to shore up the Saudis against Iran-backed aggression and assure investors that Aramco has friends and your returns are guaranteed...
I'm sure Tulsi Gabbard is "overjoyed" at her 'brothers and sisters' being sold to the highest bidder.
This is a $400 billion deal that Wall St. punters have choked on for three years trying to drum up support for.
Now that they finally have it lined up, after Trump subordinating U.S. foreign policy to it and Israel for his entire term in office, a few well-placed drones threatens to bring the entire thing crumbling down.
But this is a trap...
Iran had to see this as a potential outcome of the attack, and committing U.S. troops looks like, a 'check' move to Iran's pushing the pawn.
But it's not. Because the U.S. can't actually engage here without enmeshing Trump in a quagmire that is deeply unpopular back home and likely more damaging to the markets than if Trump didn't move troops in.
Because now, with troops on the peninsula, there's greater potential for conflict.
Moreover, the Houthis have made their point,
And on the heels of my last article, we have reports now that they have made an incursion north into the province of Jizan.
As Patton would say,
What are the U.S. troops going to do, actually?
In the end, we're now using them as human shields to protect a country which,
Let's take this one step further.
With Benjamin Netanyahu losing the election on Tuesday and likely on the outside of Israeli policy, if not civil society, the Trump administration's plans for a deal between Israel and the Palestinians is in jeopardy.
What was the point of producing all this oil domestically if we're going to spend what little money it produces in free cash flow to shore up the Saudi government?
The Kushner deal between Israel and the Palestinians been on hold for most of this year since Egpyt's President al-Sisi rejected Trump's overture to join 'Trump's Arab NATO alliance' to secure Israel's southern border.
Events since then have conspired to keep its proposal delayed officially.
So, imagine my shock that this morning I wake up to a headline that there are street level protests against al-Sisi's government that sprang up 'suddenly' and without warning.
It leaves U.S. troops vulnerable not only to an actual attack but also to a false flag involving the deaths of American soldiers.
The President had a choice and he chose poorly...