by The Economist
February 20, 2025
from TheEconomist Website

Also HERE


 

image:

Gregori Saavedra



The region has had its bleakest week

since the fall of the Iron Curtain.

The implications have yet to sink in...

The old world urgently needs to learn

how to use hard power in an era of lawlessness,

or it will fall victim to a new world chaos...

The past week has been the darkest in Europe since the fall of the Iron Curtain.

Ukraine has been betrayed, Russia is being rehabilitated, and under Donald Trump, America is no longer Europe's reliable ally in war.

The consequences for Europe's security are grave, but they have not yet been fully understood by the continent's leaders and citizens.

 

The Old World urgently needs to learn how to use hard power in an era of lawlessness, or it will fall victim to a new global chaos.

Speaking in Munich last week, US Vice President J.D. Vance hinted at the humiliation the land of fine wines, classical architecture and welfare benefits was facing when he derided Europe as decadent and undemocratic.

Its leaders have been excluded from peace talks between the White House and the Kremlin, which officially began in Riyadh on February 18.

But the unfolding crisis goes far beyond insults and diplomatic formalities.

Trump appears ready to abandon Ukraine, which he falsely blames for the war.

Calling its president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, a "dictator," Trump warned him that he,

"must act quickly or he will be left without a country."

America could try to impose an unstable ceasefire on Ukraine with weak security guarantees that would limit its right to rearm.

That's bad enough, but Europe has bigger nightmares than Ukraine...

Trump intends to rehabilitate Russian President Vladimir Putin by abandoning a long-standing policy of isolation.

With no apparent geopolitical benefit to America, Trump is seeking to restore diplomatic relations and may soon host him for a glamorous summit.

Offering concessions in Riyadh, Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke of cooperation and,

"historic economic and investment opportunities."

(A Trump Tower in Red Square? - sic...)

The problem is that, if Europe is attacked by Russia and asks for American help, Trump's first and deepest instinct will be to ask,

"What's in it for me?"

Trump's blackmail of Europe and his flattery of Russia have cast doubt on America's commitment to NATO's defense no matter what.

There are fears that American forces could be reduced or withdrawn, leaving Eastern Europe vulnerable.

 

The problem is not that American priorities have shifted to Asia.

 

The problem is that if Europe is attacked by Russia and asks for American help, Trump's first and deepest instinct will be to ask, "What's in it for me?"

He will meet with the British prime minister and the French president next week.

But that shouldn't be taken as a sign that all this is just a cunning negotiating tactic:

Trump's willingness to trade everything without reservation is precisely the problem.

NATO's deterrence rests on the certainty that if one member is attacked, the others will come to its defense. Suspicion is destructive and leaves Europe dangerously exposed.

Let's clearly state the reality that Europe is facing.

It is a continent with an aging population, burdened by debt, weak growth, and no ability to defend itself or project hard power.

 

Global rules on trade, borders, defense, and technology are collapsing.

If Russia attacks one of the Baltic states or uses disinformation and sabotage to destabilize Eastern Europe,

what exactly will Europe do?

The response so far has been to retreat to a defensive posture.

After the MAGA coup, a group of European leaders met urgently in Paris on February 17, but only managed to air their disagreements.

Three years after the Russian invasion, Europe has still not significantly increased its military spending.

It remains trapped in an outdated worldview based on multilateral treaties and shared values.

From yesterday's protest in Berlin

photo: Reuters

Europe's urgent task,

• is to relearn how to acquire and use power

• it must be prepared to confront its enemies, but sometimes its friends, including America, which will still be there after Trump...

Instead of retreating, Europe must realistically assess the threat.

Russia is a war machine with a huge nuclear arsenal, but also a weakening middle-sized economy.

 

At the same time, Europe must realistically assess its own strengths:

despite its slow growth, Europe remains an economic and trading giant with vast reserves of talent and knowledge.

It must use these resources to fuel growth, rearm, and strengthen its influence.

What does this mean in concrete terms?

In the short term,

Europe needs a single envoy to negotiate with Ukraine, Russia, and America.

 

It should tighten sanctions against Russia, even if America eases them.

 

Europe should unilaterally use the 210 billion Euros in Russian assets frozen in European banks.

 

This would allow Ukraine to continue fighting or to rearm as American financial support wanes.

In the medium term,

a major defense mobilization is necessary.

 

If Europe cannot rely on America, it must have its own heavy transport aircraft, logistics, surveillance - everything it needs.

 

Talks must begin about how Britain and France can use their nuclear weapons to protect the continent.

 

All of this will require enormous money.

 

Military spending must increase to 4-5 percent of GDP, which was the norm during the Cold War.

Higher military budgets, especially if some of it is spent on American weapons, could persuade Trump to stay in NATO, but the basic assumption now must be that American support is not guaranteed.

Financing this rearmament will require a fiscal revolution.

 

The new target will require additional spending of over 300 billion Euros per year.

 

Part of this funding must come from increased borrowing, both collective and individual.

To sustain it, Europe will have to cut social spending:

former German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that Europe accounts for 25 percent of the world's population, 50 percent of global GDP, but XNUMX percent of the world's social spending.

To stimulate growth, Europe must implement the reforms it has been endlessly postponing - from unifying capital markets to deregulation.

A new dream for the Old Continent

The nightmare created by Putin and now Trump could force Europe to change the way it organizes itself.

Its bureaucratic obsession with processes and groupings, including the Eurozone, the EU and many others, slows down decision-making, excludes key players like Britain and gives weight to countries like Hungary, which wants to sabotage European defense, or Spain, which is hesitant about rearming.

All this sounds unrealistic.

NATO was the most "successful" alliance in the world (sic...) - its disappearance is hard to imagine. However, the old order is disappearing, and a new one is emerging.

Europe must understand this before it is too late...