by Warren P. Strobel and John Hudson
July 20, 2026

from TheWashingtonPost Website

Article also HERE

President Donald Trump's

current course of ever-expanding attacks on Iran

appears to have led to a stalemate.

American agencies see a long standoff

between Tehran and Washington,

as Iran is unlikely to soften its negotiating position

because of U.S. military action...

Iran's government is unlikely to feel significant impact or soften its negotiating position as a result of new rounds of U.S. military strikes like those now underway, according to a new intelligence assessment described by current and former U.S. officials.

Analysts at American spy agencies also have concluded that,

Tehran and Washington are, for now, stuck in an indefinite limbo between peace and war, the officials said - an uneasy dynamic given the increasingly deadly nature of the tit-for-tat hostilities between the two nations.

The current and former officials spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe the assessments because of their sensitivity.

The findings, which have been briefed to the administration, appear to underscore the dilemma President Donald Trump faces in a war that he and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu began in late February.

Trump's current course of ever-expanding attacks appears to have led to a stalemate...

But with the war deeply unpopular at home, continuing escalation by the United States, such as the possible introduction of ground troops, poses political risks for the president with no guarantee of military success.

The U.S. military said last weekend that,

two American service members were killed in an Iranian attack on an air base in Jordan on Friday, as hostilities resumed following the collapse of last month's ceasefire between Washington and Tehran.

U.S. Central Command, in charge of operations in the region, said Monday it had launched fresh strikes, this time in what Trump said was retaliation for the troops' deaths.

It was the ninth consecutive night the U.S. military has bombed Iran.

Centcom announced Monday afternoon that it had begun a 10^th wave of attacks.

Iran retaliated with attempted strikes of its own Monday morning.

 Kuwait and Bahrain said they had intercepted aerial attacks.

On another front of Mideast conflict, Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi militia said it would impose a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia, threatening the vital Bab al-Mandeb strait between the Arabian Peninsula and Africa that leads to the Suez Canal.

With the prospect of a wider war erupting again, both Iran and the U.S. signaled they were open to fresh negotiations, although no progress was reported.

A spokesman for Iran's foreign ministry, Esmaeil Baghaei, said in a news conference in Tehran on Monday that messages from Washington had reached Tehran through intermediaries in Qatar, according to Iranian media.

"We have received messages, without going into details, but the main point is that the diplomatic apparatus has been active in recent days and ideas have been conveyed to us by certain mediators," Baghaei said.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the U.S. remains open to a diplomatic solution in Iran and that parts of Iran's government are also open to it, but hardliners have gotten in the way.

"They continue to send signals that they want to talk, that they want to negotiate but their behavior is what we're responding to and their behavior is they're launching missiles and drones at ships, including tonight," Rubio told reporters Sunday evening as he departed for the Philippines.

In previous rounds of talks, the Iranians have proven to be obstinate negotiators, particularly on key points such as its nuclear program.

At the same time,

the administration has repeatedly said Iran has capitulated to U.S. demands, only to see Tehran deny agreement was reached...

The two sides reached a ceasefire in April to end hostilities and open the Strait of Hormuz, with negotiations on key issues deferred, only to see the deal crumble over control of the waterway, a key Persian Gulf chokepoint for oil and other exports.

The latest intelligence report was written primarily by the CIA, where analysts have underscored,

the Tehran regime's staying power despite the loss of many of its top leaders and much of its military hardware to U.S. and Israeli attacks.

In May, a CIA analysis concluded that,

Iran could survive a U.S. naval blockade for at least three to four months before facing more severe economic hardship.

The CIA declined to comment on the new report.

Intelligence assessments like those on Iran are not intended to be concrete predictions of the future, current and former intelligence officials say.

Rather, they are a snapshot of current and likely future trends based on all available classified intelligence, including human espionage and technical collection, as well as open-source material.

Jonathan Panikoff, former deputy U.S. national intelligence officer for the Near East, said that the Trump administration appears to believe that if it keeps hitting Iran harder militarily, Tehran eventually will become more flexible.

"That assessment is almost certainly incorrect," said Panikoff, senior director at the Atlantic Council think tank.

Iran's government has repeatedly shown that its number one priority is survival of the regime, and that it is willing to suffer blows despite the harm to its people and economy, he said.

"I'm struggling, because I don't think there's a lot of great options for the United States," Panikoff said, adding that he is skeptical Trump would launch a ground invasion.

 

"You'll continue to see significant flare-ups in this conflict," he said, followed by periods of calm and then renewed fighting.

Inside Iran, U.S. officials say they increasingly see tensions within the Tehran government between those Washington considers pragmatists and those seen as hardliners in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and elsewhere whose power has grown.

Rubio said the U.S. has heard directly from Iranians in government that they support a diplomatic agreement, but he acknowledged "there's a tension" with hardliners who seem to oppose it.

The secretary of state acknowledged he did not know what would happen if the hardliners prevail.

"I don't think it'll be good for Iran.

 

I mean, Iran's economy is in shambles, right?" he said.

In statements over the weekend, both Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran's chief negotiator in earlier talks with the U.S., urged unity as,

"a necessary condition for victory in the struggle against the enemy."

What Readers are Saying

The comments express strong criticism of President Trump's handling of the conflict with Iran, highlighting his lack of diplomatic and military strategy...!

 

Many commenters blame Trump for escalating tensions by withdrawing from the JCPOA and starting a war without consulting allies or experts.

 

They argue that his impulsive decisions and reliance on non-expert advisors have led to a costly and unwinnable situation, drawing parallels to past conflicts like Vietnam.

 

There is a consensus that diplomacy is the only viable solution, but Trump's approach is seen as inadequate and damaging to U.S. interests.