by Tyler Durden
Mach 02, 2026
from ZeroHedge Website

* * *
 

Update (10:15 ET)

The Pentagon has announced it has gained complete 'local air superiority' over Iran, and also that Israel continues working with the US to eliminate 'common threats'.

This came soon on the heels of the shocking news of three US F-15s downed over Kuwait. Iran is claiming to have shot down at least one US jet, while the US and Kuwait counter-claim that it was actually Kuwaiti 'friendly fire'.

Some six total US airmen parachuted down safely into Kuwaiti territory.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has meanwhile stated that at this point approximately 600 Iranian infrastructure sites have been dismantled in Iran using 2,500 munitions.

These sites included "over 20 targets belonging to Iranian military leaders," the IDF said.

But as the conflict expands into Lebanon, and as many Gulf countries continue witnessing inbound Iranian missiles and drones, NATO command has distanced itself from the conflict, with Secretary General Mark Rutte stating Monday that the alliance "will not participate" in the joint US-Israeli mission.

The Joint Chiefs say that more American service members are being added to the operation.

The 'Big War Gamble'... or, Rabobank's take paraphrased down to a single key sentence:

The US strike on Iran is Trump's high-risk gamble to choke China's energy lifeline, flip Tehran to allied control, open the India-Middle East-Europe corridor, weaken Russia, and lock in 21^st-century US hegemony - delivering quick regime change and falling oil prices that cement Trumpism as a historic win, OR sparking Middle East chaos and global blowback that hands Beijing the advantage in a new age of empires...

In the meantime, War Secretary Pete Hegseth appeared on the defensive in a Pentagon briefing early Monday.

He confirmed there are as yet no US boots on the ground, while also seeking to assure the American public this is not an "endless war". And yet, reporters were still left frustrated by lack of a clear timeline, or laying out of specific objectives which must be accomplished before Operation Epic Fury is declared over.

There was a moment where Hegseth erupted at a reporter's question, revealing that tensions are high at the Pentagon:

 

But worrisomely for the prospect of escalation, NBC observes that Hegseth did not rule out boots on the ground:

Asked whether U.S. boots are on the ground, Hegseth said no, but said he would not lay out what the U.S. could do as the operation continues.

Hegseth said that Trump ensures that the country's enemies know that the U.S. will go as far as it needs to in order to advance the U.S.' interests.

Time will tell if this firm pledge becomes a reality or not:

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on Monday that military operations against Iran would not lead to an "endless war" and that the aim was to destroy Tehran's missiles, Navy and other security infrastructure.

"We're hitting them surgically, overwhelmingly and unapologetically," Hegseth said during a press conference at the Pentagon.
 

Screenshot:

Massive bombing of Tehran

on Day 3 continues.

Trump previously told The Daily Mail he expects the operation could take up to four weeks.

One month of intense war will seem like a lifetime, given how fast events at the 'blowback' have been coming over the last some 48 to 72 hours.

And he's just told CNN...:

"We are about to hit them hard, the operation is progressing very well, the big wave hasn't happened yet and it will come soon."

Blowback effects mounting:

 

Hegseth and Gen. Caine offered condolences to families of the fallen:

"I want to express my deep condolences and the condolences of the joint force to the Department of War personnel killed and wounded in action," Caine said, calling the fallen soldiers heroes who "represent the best of our nation has to offer. They're true examples of what selfless service means.".

* * *
 

It is only day three of 'Operation Epic Fury' and Americans are waking up to shocking images of US fighter jets going down over Kuwait, and the incredibly rare scene of pilots parachuting down with a look of disbelief and confusion...

 

US CENTCOM has confirmed, following a Kuwaiti government statement,

"At 11:03 p.m. ET, March 1, three U.S. F-15E Strike Eagles flying in support of Operation Epic Fury went down over Kuwait due to an apparent friendly fire incident."

That's three US warplanes in "apparently" one incident...

How does that happen?

Of course, given the already thick fog of war and propaganda narratives fast going back and forth, it's entirely possible they could have been shot down by Iranian defenses or jets from just across the border.

Iran is saying it has shot down at least one US F-15 fighter jet:

IRAN SAYS IT SHOT DOWN US F-15 FIGHTER JET: TASNIM

Here's the fuller CENTCOM narrative:

CENTCOM:

"During active combat - that included attacks from Iranian aircraft, ballistic missiles, and drones - the U.S. Air Force fighter jets were mistakenly shot down by Kuwaiti air defenses.

 

All six aircrew ejected safely, have been safely recovered, and are in stable condition.

 

Kuwait has acknowledged this incident, and we are grateful for the efforts of the Kuwaiti defense forces and their support in this ongoing operation."

American pilot found

by Kuwait police and locals,

via X.

Given there's now an official Pentagon casualty/death count, and given the fact that the Gulf allies and especially Israel are getting hit hard by Iran's significant ballistic missile arsenal, President Trump himself may now be (only too late) realize,

he just bit off more than he can chew in ordering this ultra-risky regime change operation...!

There's as yet no clear endgame.

Trump has talked about reaching objectives - without defining them, in something eerily (and predictably!) familiar with the 2003 Iraq war under Bush and the Neocons.

Recall too that Trump just told The Atlantic magazine on Sunday morning that Tehran wanted to speak to him while feeling the pressure of the bombs falling, and that he was willing to do so.

"They want to talk, and I have agreed to talk, so I will be talking to them," he said from his residence in Florida.
 

But soon after it became clear that's not happening - the Iranian genie is out of the bottle... or we could say Pandora's Box Persian-style, which could make even Iraq look like a cakewalk.

Adding insult to injury is that, this is everything Trump and his team campaigned against...

Trump has already pivoted to saying the conflict looks to take up to four weeks (will it take years as Iraq did? nobody knows).

Below is the man that was tapped by the slain Ayatollah Khamenei to run the day to day in his stead:

 

And to that, the Pentagon responds... also with Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Caine on Monday morning declaring that the US has local air superiority in Iran.

 

Israel is taking significant casualties, especially after Sunday's direct large Iranian warhead impact on a town near Jerusalem which left at least 9 dead and dozens wounded.

 

Hezbollah has entered the war and in response Israel is once again pounding southern Lebanon and Beirut.

 

Major international airports in the Gulf, particularly in the UAE, have bit hit by missiles and drones - also as US bases across the Gulf continue to be targeted.

 

Even British-US bases on Cyprus have come under drone attack.

Gulf nations are seeing casualties, and even other European bases in the region have come under fire. American bases in northern Iraq have also been heavily targeted in Iran's retaliation waves.

 

These have been sustained, particularly on Israel.

One question which we've been covering remains:

which side will have the missile and firepower arsenal to outlast the other? ...as the costs will soon enter the billions...

Most importantly, as of Monday morning CENTCOM has newly confirmed four American troops killed in the operation.

Needless to say, if Trump's thinking really approached this as if it was 'one and done' Venezuela, and that after some quick salvo a country of 90 million with a well-armed and experienced military would immediately shout 'uncle...!' - he's probably already realizing the situation is spiraling out of control far beyond his expectation.

But he was clearly and loudly warned.

Yet, it's also true that Iranian top leadership is fast being decimated - with over 40 top officers reportedly killed. But Iran is able to fill these ranks fast, most likely.

Shock & Awe on Tehran

In Washington right now, the biggest story centers on headlines of "paranoia" and deep "anxiety" at the Pentagon in in national security council ranks:

Pentagon officials are worried about Donald Trump's Iran strikes spiraling out of control if they stick to his timeline.

While the president boasts that the strikes could continue for several more weeks, military leaders are sounding the alarm behind the scenes about U.S. air defense stockpiles running out if the fighting goes on that long.

"The mood here is intense and paranoid," one insider told The Washington Post.

It seems the Pentagon is already throwing the White House and Trump under the bus, or is at least doing so through 'anonymous' quotes given to WaPo, NYT, CNN and others:

Pentagon briefers acknowledged to congressional staff in a briefing Sunday that Iran was not planning to strike US forces or bases in the Middle East unless Israel attacked Iran first, undercutting the administration's argument Saturday that Tehran was planning to potentially strike the US preemptively and posed an imminent threat, according to multiple people who attended the briefing.

Senior administration officials told reporters Saturday that the US chose to attack Iran because it had received indications the regime was planning to launch missile attacks against US bases in the region preemptively and create a mass casualty situation.

 

CNN reported Saturday that sources said there was no intelligence to support the administration's claim...!

And after all, Iran's economy was already brought to its knees through years of crippling sanctions, and the Iranians appeared to come hat in hand to the negotiating table in Geneva.

 

To recount the warning late last month issued by no less than the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine - the issues already facing American forces were clearly outlined and predicted.

According to out prior paraphrase and outline of what's being freshly reported by WSJ:

1. Caine warned that the war plans under consideration carry a high risk of significant American and allied casualties.
    

2. He cautioned that a multi-day campaign would exhaust air-defense munitions and other limited-supply items, which are critical for protecting regional partners like Israel if Iran retaliates.
    

3. An intensive operation against Iran could deplete stockpiles to a level that would complicate U.S. readiness for a potential future conflict with China.
    

4. He described the potential campaign as one that could "stretch the military thin" and leave forces "overtaxed".
    

5. Caine's gave "high likelihood of success" reassurances before the January 2026 mission to apprehend Nicolas Maduro, he has been unable to provide similar guarantees regarding a large-scale strike on Iran.

Below is a review of the mounting casualties across the region from Operation Epic Fury.

The US has so far issued an official count of four US troops killed and five others seriously wounded.

That could already be significantly higher, unfortunately - along with the below numbers which are expected to climb:

Iran:

At least 555 people have died since joint US-Israeli strikes began, according to the Red Crescent Society. Iranian state media reported that 168 students were killed in an airstrike on a girls' elementary school, with three more students killed in separate attacks in Tehran and northern Iran.

 

China's foreign ministry confirmed that one Chinese national was also killed.
 

Lebanon:

Israeli airstrikes on southern Lebanon and Beirut have killed at least 31 people, the Lebanese Ministry of Public Health said.
 

Israel:

At least 10 people have been killed and more than 200 wounded since Israel launched operations against Iran, according to Magen David Adom. Nine of the dead were in Beit Shemesh, where a missile struck a bomb shelter.
 

Iraq:

A US-Israeli strike hit a headquarters of Iraq's Iran-aligned Popular Mobilization Forces, killing four members, the group's Media Directorate said.
 

United Arab Emirates:

Iran's retaliatory strikes killed three people in the UAE, the defense ministry said. The victims - nationals of Pakistan, Nepal, and Bangladesh - were killed after Iranian drones penetrated the country's air defenses.
 

Kuwait:

Three US service members were killed in a suspected drone attack early Sunday, according to sources familiar with the incident. Separately, Kuwait's health ministry reported one fatality from Iranian strikes.
 

Bahrain:

One person died after debris from an intercepted missile ignited a fire aboard a "foreign vessel" in Salman Industrial City, according to Bahraini state media.

War spreads to Israel-Hezbollah theatre in Lebanon:

 

To again cite, Glenn Greenwald, who summarized best how we got where we are:

"For decades, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and American neoconservatives have dreamed of only one foreign policy goal:

having the United States fight a regime-change war against Iran.

With the Oval Office occupied by Donald Trump - who campaigned for a full decade on a vow to end regime-change wars and vanquish neoconservatism - their goal has finally been realized."

On the question of grand strategy and the White House's likely long term global geopolitical chessboard vision, we have also featured that The 'Iran Question' is all about China...