by Kenneth Richard
November 04, 2022
from ClimateChangeDispatch Website

also HERE...

Antarctic Peninsula Cools,

Ice Shelves Advance,

Media Silent...

Scientists are struggling to keep their stories straight regarding the anthropogenic [human-caused] CO2 impact on polar climates.


It is claimed that anthropogenic CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels are responsible for amplifying warming ("polar amplification") and ice melt in polar climates, consistent with pronouncements pertaining to anthropogenic global warming.


However, Antarctica's Larsen Ice Shelf station indicates a massive cooling trend, -1.1°C per decade, has been ongoing since the late 1990s (Bozkurt et al., 2020).



Image Source:

Bozkurt et al., 2020



About 85% of the East Antarctic Peninsula ice sheet has sustained "uninterrupted advance" since 2003 (Christie et al., 2022).



Schematic diagrams showing

the key atmospheric and sea ice processes

controlling the (in)stability of the eastern

Antarctic Peninsula's ice shelves through time.

The signs following IPO, MLJ and SAM refer to

the states of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation,

Mid-Latitude Jet and Southern Annular Mode

relative to each epoch, respectively

(cf. Supplementary Discussion 3).

Histograms indicate the probability of

ocean wave-induced ice-shelf frontal damage.

Note that, unlike the EAP's other ice shelves,

Ronne Ice Shelf is immune to the influence of

damaging ocean waves given its thickness

Image Source



East and West Antarctica have been significantly cooling since 1979.


Overall cooling rates of -0.7°C and -0.42°C per decade from 1979 to 2018 indicate -2.8°C and -1.68°C total cooling, respectively, for the mainland continent during these decades (Zhu et al., 2021).


The Antarctic Peninsula only began significant cooling in the 1990s (Oliva et al., 2017), and thus the 21st-century cooling has not yet overtaken or reversed the overall trend since 1979.

Other scientists suggest rising CO2 leads to cooling, not warming, in Antarctica.


The CO2 greenhouse effect forcing is also "comparatively weak", or close to 0 W/m², for Greenland (Schmithüsen et al., 2015). 


None of these trends or attributions are consistent with claims of anthropogenic global warming or polar amplification as a consequence of rising CO2 emissions.