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by Jack Dini
May 24, 2021
from
Principia-Scientific Website
Image:
American Enterprise Institute
In this
article,
Jack Dini discusses how every one
of the
predictions of 'death by climate'
that we have
seen have failed...
William Buckley had this to say
about predictions,
"I remember
participating in a forum in the late 1970s, in which the
principal speaker was the representative of The Economist (the
London weekly).
He had been
designated its 'futurist.'
The original idea was
to devote an entire issue every ten years forecasting the
primary concerns of the ensuing ten years.
To prepare himself
for that assignment, he had gone over the futurist issues of the
past hundred years and learned that there was only this
constant:
the predicted
concerns of the next decade turned out in no case - not ever
- to be the actual concerns of the ensuing decade."
These days climate
alarmists are as bad, or worse, than the 'futurists' Buckley talked
about.
The top prediction from
the first Earth Day five decades ago was that 'the pending ice
age was coming' as earth had been cooling since 1960 and
the temperature would be 11 degrees cooler by 2000. 1
A recent peer reviewed
paper (Apocalypse
Now? Communicating
Extreme Forecasts) identifies 79 'apocalyptic' predictions formulated since 1970
by 'researchers and activists' who 'predict cataclysmic events'
resulting from 'catastrophic climate change.
Already 48 of these
'truly apocalyptic forecasts' have failed.
The other 31 are
likely just as wrong, but the prediction end dates haven't
expired yet, as 'the apocalypse is always about 20 years out.
2
The paper effectively
exposes a,
'string of
repeated apocalyptic forecast failures over the last 50
years made by such activists as Al Gore, Paul Ehrlich, and
Tim Flannery.'
Activists/scientists
James Hansen and Michael Mann have catastrophic
predictions set to expire in the 2030s and the IPCC had a
cataclysmic forecast already fail and 3 others that will expire
and 2029 and 2050. 3
The researchers noted
that the average time horizon before a climate apocalypse
for the 11 predictions made prior to 2000 was 22 years, while
for the 68 predictions made after 2000, the average time horizon
was 21 years.
Despite the passage of
time, little has changed across a half a century of forecasts:
the apocalypse is
always about 20 years out...
Making sensational
predictions of the doom of humanity, while scientifically dubious,
has still proven tempting for those wishing to grab headlines.
2
There are some recent
exceptions to this 20 year forecast:
In 1989,
the United Nations said we have
ten years to save the planet from global warming.
Do the math... that
was 31 years ago! 4
Now they say we only
have ten months...! 5
US congresswoman
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortex says,
"World will end in 12
years if no action taken."
Joe Biden has an even
shorter time frame:
"Only nine years left
to save Earth."
The authors' of the peer
reviewed paper intention was to warn the climate science community
about the cry-wolf dangers of repeatedly making 'extreme forecasts'
that when they inevitably fail, undermine the trust in the
underlying science.
It is highly likely that
these warnings will be ignored, however, as,
'making sensational
predictions of the doom of humanity, while scientifically
dubious, has still proven tempting for those wishing to grab
headlines.'
Al Gore is perhaps
one of the best examples of this.
Hans Rosling,
author of the book
Factfulness, which says the world, for all
its imperfections, is in much better shape than we might think, was
on a program with Al Gore.
Gore suggested to Rosling
that he should add some fear to his presentation.
Rosling rejected
this as being against his principles.
Not so with Gore who thrives
on bad news and fear mongering.
For five decades, experts have been predicting renewable energy
would supply 20 to 50 % of the US electricity grid.
Instead its
taken as long to get to one fifth of the original prediction.
And to get to that
pitiful 10%, that includes hydropower.
"Yet the seductive
temptation of 'free energy' rolls on, never mind about the vast
infrastructure and land it takes to capture a low density energy
source.
The price for 'free fuel' is expensive maintenance, costly
transmission, extra stability charges, and eye bleeding storage
costs, or an entire national spare grid for back up," reports
Joanne Nova. 6
Steve Milloy notes
that 2020 has been the wildest and most unpredictable year in memory
of most people.
But did the climate
doom that was predicted to occur in or by 2020 materialize...?
Not even close...!
As it turns out climate
doomsayers weren't seeing so 20-20 when it came to 2020. 7
Here are some of Milloy's examples:
-
Average global
temperature - 1987: NASA's James Hansen predicts world 3ºC warmer by 2020.
-
Global
emissions - 1978: CO2 levels to double from 1978 to 2020.
-
China and India
emissions - 2009: China to cut emissions 40-45% below
level by 2020; India to cut 20-25%
-
Snow - 2000: By 2020 snow will be so unfamiliar people won't know
how to deal with it.
-
Pacific
Islands - 2000: Global warming will ruin Pacific Island
Nations economies by 2020.
-
2020 Reality: As of 2019, Tuvalu,
for example, was enjoying an unprecedented 6 year economic
growth spurt.
-
Arctic ice -
2013: Arctic ice free by 2020.
-
Glacier
National Park - 2009: glaciers gone form Glacier National
Park by 2020.
Someone should ask the
alarmists what they got right...
The trouble is that
doomsday prophets are never held to account for their
failed
predictions, yet their alarming messages live on.
Here's a prediction that will definitely come true.
"There will always be
people who make predictions, especially alarmist ones, that will
not come true..."
References
-
Ron Stein, "Earth
Day at 50: none of the eco-doomsday predictions have come
true," wattsupwiththat.com, April 22, 2020
-
David C. Rode and
Paul S. Fischbeck, "Apocalypse
Now? Communicating
Extreme Forecasts," - International Journal of Global
Warming, Vol. 23, No 2, 2021
-
Kenneth
Richard, "48 of 79 catastrophic climate change predictions
have failed… the other 31 just haven't expired yet," notrickszone.com, April 8, 2021
-
Peter James
Spielmann, "UN predicts disaster if global warming not
checked," AP, June 29, 1989
-
Aryn Baker, "If
this task was urgent before, it's crucial now. UN say world
has 10 months to get serious on climate goals," Time,
February 26, 2021
-
Joanne Nova,
"Fifty years of failed renewables predictions,"
joannenova.co.au, May 8, 2021
-
Steve Milloy,
"Wrong again: 2020s failed climate doomsaying,"
junkscience.com, December 17, 2020
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