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	 by Israel Shahak
 
	February 1982published on
	
	GlobalResearch Website
 
	June 13, 2014
 
	  
	
 
 
	The Infamous "Oded Yinon Plan" 
	  
	  
	  
	  
	  
	  
		
			
				
					
					
					Global Research Editor's Note
 
					
					The following document pertaining to the formation of 
					"Greater Israel" constitutes the cornerstone of powerful 
					Zionist factions within the current Netanyahu government, 
					the Likud party, as well as within the Israeli military and 
					intelligence establishment.   
					
					According to the founding father of Zionism Theodore Herzl, 
						
						
						"the area of the Jewish 
						State stretches 'From the Brook of Egypt to the 
						Euphrates'."   
					
					According to Rabbi Fischmann,   
						
						
						"The Promised Land extends 
						from the River of Egypt up to the Euphrates, it includes 
						parts of Syria and Lebanon." 
					
					When viewed in the current context, the war on Iraq, the 
					2006 war on Lebanon, the 2011 war on Libya, the ongoing war 
					on Syria, not to mention the process of regime change in 
					Egypt, must be understood in relation to the Zionist Plan 
					for the Middle East.    
					
					The latter consists in weakening and eventually fracturing 
					neighboring Arab states as part of an Israeli expansionist 
					project.    
					
					"Greater Israel" consists in an area extending from the Nile 
					Valley to the Euphrates.    
					
					The Zionist project supports the Jewish settlement movement. 
					More broadly it involves a policy of excluding Palestinians 
					from Palestine leading to the eventual annexation of both 
					the West Bank and Gaza to the State of Israel. 
					   
					
					Greater Israel would create a number of proxy States. It 
					would include parts of Lebanon, Jordan, Syria, the Sinai, as 
					well as parts of  Iraq and Saudi Arabia. (See map).
 
					
					According to
					
					Mahdi Darius Nazemroaya in a 2011 Global Research article, 
					the 'Yinon Plan' was a continuation of Britain's colonial 
					design in the Middle East:   
					
					"[The Yinon plan] is an Israeli strategic plan to ensure 
					Israeli regional superiority. It insists and stipulates that 
					Israel must reconfigure its geo-political environment 
					through the balkanization of the surrounding Arab states 
					into smaller and weaker states.   
					
					Israeli strategists viewed Iraq as their biggest strategic 
					challenge from an Arab state. This is why Iraq was outlined 
					as the centerpiece to the balkanization of the Middle East 
					and the Arab World.    
					
					In Iraq, on the basis of the concepts of the Yinon Plan, 
					Israeli strategists have called for the division of Iraq 
					into a Kurdish state and two Arab states, one for Shiite 
					Muslims and the other for Sunni Muslims.    
					
					The first step towards establishing this was a war between 
					Iraq and Iran, which the Yinon Plan discusses.   
					
					The Atlantic, in 2008, and the U.S. military's Armed Forces 
					Journal, in 2006, both published widely circulated maps that 
					closely followed the outline of the Yinon Plan. 
					   
					
					Aside from a divided Iraq, which the Biden Plan also calls 
					for, the Yinon Plan calls for a divided Lebanon, Egypt, and 
					Syria. The partitioning of Iran, Turkey, Somalia, and 
					Pakistan also all fall into line with these views. 
					   
					
					The Yinon Plan also calls for dissolution in North Africa 
					and forecasts it as starting from Egypt and then spilling 
					over into Sudan, Libya, and the rest of the region. 
					  
					
					Greater Israel" requires the breaking up of the existing 
					Arab states into small states.   
					
					"The plan operates on two essential premises. To survive, 
					Israel must, 
						
						
						1) 
						become an imperial regional power 
						
						2) must effect the division 
						of the whole area into small states by the dissolution 
						of all existing Arab states 
					
					Small here will depend on the ethnic or sectarian 
					composition of each state. 
					 
					  
					
					Consequently, the Zionist hope is 
					that sectarian-based states become Israel's satellites and, 
					ironically, its source of moral legitimation…  
					   
					
					This is not a new idea, nor does it surface for the first 
					time in Zionist strategic thinking. Indeed, fragmenting all 
					Arab states into smaller units has been a recurrent theme."
					 
					
					(Yinon Plan, see below)
 
					
					Viewed in this context, the war on Syria is part of the 
					process of Israeli territorial expansion. 
					  
					
					Israeli 
					intelligence working hand in glove with the US, Turkey and 
					NATO is directly supportive of the Al Qaeda terrorist 
					mercenaries inside Syria.    
					
					The Zionist Project also requires the destabilization of 
					Egypt, the creation of factional divisions within Egypt as 
					instrumented by the "Arab Spring" leading to the formation 
					of a sectarian based State dominated by the 
					
					Muslim 
					Brotherhood.   
					
					Michel Chossudovsky 
					
					Global Research 
					
					April 29, 2013        
		 
		translated and edited by 
		Israel Shahak 
		from
		
		RoundtableTexts Website 
		
		
		PDF format     
			
				
					| 
					About the TranslatorIsrael Shahak is a professor of organic chemistry at Hebrew 
					University in Jerusalem and the chairman of the Israeli 
					League for Human and Civil Rights.
 
					He published The Shahak 
					Papers, collections of key articles from the Hebrew press, 
					and is the author of numerous articles and books, among them 
					Non-Jew in the Jewish State.  
					His latest book is 
					Israel's Global Role: Weapons for Repression, published by 
					the AAUG in 1982.  
					Israel Shahak: 
					(1933-2001) |            
		 
		The Israel of Theodore Herzl (1904)
		 
		and of Rabbi Fischmann (1947)   
		
			      
			from
			Oded Yinon's 
			Published by the 
			Association of Arab-American 
			University Graduates, Inc. 
			Belmont, Massachusetts, 1982 
			Special Document No. 1 
			 
			(ISBN 0-937694-56-8)         
			 Publisher's 
			Note   
			1   
			The 
			Association of Arab-American University Graduates finds it 
			compelling to inaugurate its new publication series, Special 
			Documents, with Oded Yinon's article which appeared in Kivunim 
			(Directions), the journal of the Department of Information of the 
			World Zionist Organization.    
			Oded 
			Yinon is an Israeli journalist and was formerly attached to the 
			Foreign Ministry of Israel. To our knowledge, this document is the 
			most explicit, detailed and unambiguous statement to date of the 
			Zionist strategy in the Middle East.    
			
			Furthermore, it stands as an accurate representation of the "vision" 
			for the entire Middle East of the presently ruling Zionist regime of 
			Begin, Sharon and Eitan. Its importance, hence, lies not in its 
			historical value but in the nightmare which it presents.   
			2   
			The plan 
			operates on two essential premises.    
			To 
			survive, Israel must, 
				
				1) 
				become an imperial regional power 
				2) 
				must effect the division of the whole area into small states by 
				the dissolution of all existing Arab states 
			Small 
			here will depend on the ethnic or sectarian composition of each 
			state. Consequently, the Zionist hope is that sectarian-based states 
			become Israel's satellites and, ironically, its source of moral 
			legitimation.   
			3   
			
			This is 
			not a new idea, nor does it surface for the first time in Zionist 
			strategic thinking. Indeed, fragmenting all Arab states into smaller 
			units has been a recurrent theme.    
			This 
			theme has been documented on a very modest scale in the AAUG 
			publication, 
			
			Israel's Sacred 
			Terrorism 
			(1980), by Livia Rokach. Based on the memoirs of Moshe Sharett, 
			former Prime Minister of Israel, Rokach's study documents, in 
			convincing detail, the Zionist plan as it applies to Lebanon and as 
			it was prepared in the mid-fifties.   
			4   
			The first 
			massive Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 1978 bore this plan out to 
			the minutest detail.    
			The 
			second and more barbaric and encompassing Israeli invasion of 
			Lebanon on June 6, 1982, aims to effect certain parts of this plan 
			which hopes to see not only Lebanon, but Syria and Jordan as well, 
			in fragments.    
			This 
			ought to make mockery of Israeli public claims regarding their 
			desire for a strong and independent Lebanese central government. 
			More accurately, they want a Lebanese central government that 
			sanctions their regional imperialist designs by signing a peace 
			treaty with them. They also seek acquiescence in their designs by 
			the Syrian, Iraqi, Jordanian and other Arab governments as well as 
			by the Palestinian people.    
			What they 
			want and what they are planning for is not an Arab world, but a 
			world of Arab fragments that is ready to succumb to Israeli 
			hegemony. Hence, Oded Yinon in his essay,  
				
				"A 
				Strategy for Israel in the 1980′s," talks about "far-reaching 
				opportunities for the first time since 1967″ that are created by 
				the "very stormy situation [that] surrounds Israel." 
			5   
			The 
			Zionist policy of displacing the Palestinians from Palestine is very 
			much an active policy, but is pursued more forcefully in times of 
			conflict, such as in the 1947-1948 war and in the 1967 war. 
			   
			An 
			appendix entitled "Israel 
			Talks of a New Exodus" 
			is included in this publication to demonstrate past Zionist 
			dispersals of Palestinians from their homeland and to show, besides 
			the main Zionist document we present, other Zionist planning for the 
			de-Palestinization of Palestine.   
			6   
			It is 
			clear from the Kivunim document, published in February, 1982, that 
			the "far-reaching opportunities" of which Zionist strategists have 
			been thinking are the same "opportunities" of which they are trying 
			to convince the world and which they claim were generated by their 
			June, 1982 invasion.   
			It is 
			also clear that the Palestinians were never the sole target of 
			Zionist plans, but the priority target since their viable and 
			independent presence as a people negates the essence of the Zionist 
			state.    
			Every 
			Arab state, however, especially those with cohesive and clear 
			nationalist directions, is a real target sooner or later.   
			7   
			
			
			Contrasted with the detailed and unambiguous Zionist strategy 
			elucidated in this document, Arab and Palestinian strategy, 
			unfortunately, suffers from ambiguity and incoherence. 
			   
			There is 
			no indication that Arab strategists have internalized the Zionist 
			plan in its full ramifications. Instead, they react with incredulity 
			and shock whenever a new stage of it unfolds. This is apparent in 
			Arab reaction, albeit muted, to the Israeli siege of Beirut. 
			   
			The sad 
			fact is that as long as the Zionist strategy for the Middle East is 
			not taken seriously Arab reaction to any future siege of other Arab 
			capitals will be the same.   
			
			Khalil Nakhleh 
			
			July 23, 1982         
		Foreward 
		by 
		Israel Shahak   
		1   
		The following essay represents, in my 
		opinion, the accurate and detailed plan of the present Zionist regime 
		(of Sharon and Eitan) for the Middle East which is based on the division 
		of the whole area into small states, and the dissolution of 
		all the existing Arab states.    
		I will comment on the military aspect of
		this plan in a concluding note. Here I want to draw the attention 
		of the readers to several important points:   
		2   
		1. The idea that all the Arab 
		states should be broken down, by Israel, into small units, occurs again 
		and again in Israeli strategic thinking. For example, Ze'ev Schiff, the 
		military correspondent of Ha'aretz (and probably the most 
		knowledgeable in Israel, on this topic) writes about the "best" that can 
		happen for Israeli interests in Iraq:  
			
			"The dissolution of Iraq into a Shi'ite 
			state, a Sunni state and the separation of the Kurdish part". 
			(Ha'aretz 
			6/2/1982).  
		Actually, this aspect of the plan is very 
		old.   
		3   
		2. The strong connection with 
		Neo-Conservative thought in the USA is very prominent, especially in the 
		author's notes.    
		But, while lip service is paid to 
		the idea of the "defense of the West" from Soviet power, the real aim of 
		the author, and of the present Israeli establishment is clear: 
		   
		To make an Imperial Israel into a world 
		power. In other words, the aim of Sharon is to deceive the Americans 
		after he has deceived all the rest.   
		4   
		3. It is obvious that much of the relevant 
		data, both in the notes and in the text, is garbled or omitted, such 
		as the financial help of the U.S. to Israel. Much of it is pure 
		fantasy.    
		But, the plan is not to be 
		regarded as not influential, or as not capable of realization for a 
		short time. The plan follows faithfully the geopolitical ideas 
		current in Germany of 1890-1933, which were swallowed whole by Hitler 
		and the Nazi movement, and determined their aims for East Europe.
		   
		Those aims, especially the division of the 
		existing states, were carried out in 1939-1941, and only an alliance on 
		the global scale prevented their consolidation for a period of time.   
			
			5   
			The notes by the author follow the text. 
			To avoid confusion, I did not add any notes of my own, but have put 
			the substance of them into this foreward and the conclusion at the 
			end. I have, however, emphasized some portions of the text.   
			
			Israel Shahak 
			June 13, 1982 
			       
			 
			 
			by
			Oded Yinon   
				
					
						
							
								
								This essay 
								originally appeared in Hebrew in
								KIVUNIM 
								(Directions), A Journal for Judaism and 
								Zionism: 
								Issue No, 
								14 - Winter, 5742, February 1982 
								Editor: 
								Yoram Beck.  
								Editorial 
								Committee: Eli Eyal, Yoram Beck, Amnon Hadari, 
								Yohanan Manor, Elieser Schweid.  
								Published 
								by the Department 
								of 
								Publicity/The World Zionist Organization, 
								Jerusalem. 
				
					  
					1   
					At the outset of the nineteen 
					eighties the State of Israel is in need of a new perspective 
					as to its place, its aims and national targets, at home and 
					abroad.    
					This need has become even more 
					vital due to a number of central processes which the 
					country, the region and the world are undergoing. We are 
					living today in the early stages of a new epoch in human 
					history which is not at all similar to its predecessor, and 
					its characteristics are totally different from what we have 
					hitherto known.    
					That is why we need an 
					understanding of the central processes which typify this 
					historical epoch on the one hand, and on the other hand we 
					need a world outlook and an operational strategy in 
					accordance with the new conditions. The existence, 
					prosperity and steadfastness of the Jewish state will depend 
					upon its ability to adopt a new framework for its domestic 
					and foreign affairs.   
					2   
				This epoch is characterized by 
				several traits which we can already diagnose, and which 
				symbolize a genuine revolution in our present lifestyle. 
				   
				The dominant process is the 
				breakdown of the rationalist, humanist outlook as the major 
				cornerstone supporting the life and achievements of Western 
				civilization since the Renaissance. The political, social and 
				economic views which have emanated from this foundation have 
				been based on several "truths" which are presently disappearing 
				- for example, the view that man as an individual is the center 
				of the universe and everything exists in order to fulfill his 
				basic material needs.    
				This position is being invalidated 
				in the present when it has become clear that the amount of 
				resources in the cosmos does not meet Man's requirements, his 
				economic needs or his demographic constraints.    
				In a world in which there are four 
				billion human beings and economic and energy resources which do 
				not grow proportionally to meet the needs of mankind, it is 
				unrealistic to expect to fulfill the main requirement of Western 
				Society,1 i.e., the wish and aspiration for 
				boundless consumption.    
				The view that ethics plays no part 
				in determining the direction Man takes, but rather his material 
				needs do - that view is becoming prevalent today as we see a 
				world in which nearly all values are disappearing.    
				We are losing the ability to assess 
				the simplest things, especially when they concern the simple 
				question of what is Good and what is Evil.   
					
						
						3   
						The vision of man's 
						limitless aspirations and abilities shrinks in the face 
						of the sad facts of life, when we witness the break-up 
						of world order around us.    
						The view which promises 
						liberty and freedom to mankind seems absurd in light of 
						the sad fact that three fourths of the human race lives 
						under totalitarian regimes. The views concerning 
						equality and social justice have been transformed by 
						socialism and especially by Communism into a laughing 
						stock.    
						There is no argument as to 
						the truth of these two ideas, but it is clear that they 
						have not been put into practice properly and the 
						majority of mankind has lost the liberty, the freedom 
						and the opportunity for equality and justice.   
						In this nuclear world 
						in which we are (still) living in relative peace for 
						thirty years, the concept of peace and coexistence among 
						nations has no meaning when a superpower like the USSR 
						holds a military and political doctrine of the sort it 
						has: that not only is a nuclear war possible and 
						necessary in order to achieve the ends of Marxism, but 
						that it is possible to survive after it, not to speak of 
						the fact that one can be victorious in it. 2
						   
						4   
						The essential concepts of 
						human society, especially those of the West, are 
						undergoing a change due to political, military and 
						economic transformations.    
						Thus, the nuclear and 
						conventional might of the USSR has transformed the epoch 
						that has just ended into the last respite before the 
						great saga that will demolish a large part of our world 
						in a multi-dimensional global war, in comparison with 
						which the past world wars will have been mere child's 
						play.    
						The power of nuclear as well 
						as of conventional weapons, their quantity, their 
						precision and quality will turn most of our world upside 
						down within a few years, and we must align ourselves so 
						as to face that in Israel. That is, then, the main 
						threat to our existence and that of the Western world.
						3    
						The war over resources in 
						the world, the Arab monopoly on oil, and the need of the 
						West to import most of its raw materials from the Third 
						World, are transforming the world we know, given that 
						one of the major aims of the USSR is to defeat the West 
						by gaining control over the gigantic resources in the 
						Persian Gulf and in the southern part of Africa, in 
						which the majority of world minerals are located. 
						   
						We can imagine the 
						dimensions of the global confrontation which will face 
						us in the future.   
						
						5   
						The Gorshkov doctrine 
						calls for Soviet control of the oceans and mineral rich 
						areas of the Third World.    
						That together with the 
						present Soviet nuclear doctrine which holds that it is 
						possible to manage, win and survive a nuclear war, in 
						the course of which the West's military might well be 
						destroyed and its inhabitants made slaves in the service 
						of Marxism-Leninism, is the main danger to world peace 
						and to our own existence.    
						Since 1967, the 
						Soviets have transformed Clausewitz' dictum into "War is 
						the continuation of policy in nuclear means," and made 
						it the motto which guides all their policies. Already 
						today they are busy carrying out their aims in our 
						region and throughout the world, and the need to face 
						them becomes the major element in our country's security 
						policy and of course that of the rest of the Free World.
						   
						That is our major 
						foreign challenge. 4   
						6   
						The Arab Moslem world, 
						therefore, is not the major strategic problem which we 
						shall face in the Eighties, despite the fact that it 
						carries the main threat against Israel, due to its 
						growing military might.    
						This world, with its ethnic 
						minorities, its factions and internal crises, which is 
						astonishingly self-destructive, as we can see in 
						Lebanon, in non-Arab Iran and now also in Syria, is 
						unable to deal successfully with its fundamental 
						problems and does not therefore constitute a real threat 
						against the State of Israel in the long run, but only in 
						the short run where its immediate military power has 
						great import. In the long run, this world will be unable 
						to exist within its present framework in the areas 
						around us without having to go through genuine 
						revolutionary changes.    
						The Moslem Arab World is 
						built like a temporary house of cards put together by 
						foreigners (France and Britain in the Nineteen 
						Twenties), without the wishes and desires of the 
						inhabitants having been taken into account. It was 
						arbitrarily divided into 19 states, all made of 
						combinations of minorities and ethnic groups which are 
						hostile to one another, so that every Arab Moslem state 
						nowadays faces ethnic social destruction from within, 
						and in some a civil war is already raging. 5
						   
						Most of the Arabs, 118 
						million out of 170 million, live in Africa, mostly in 
						Egypt (45 million today).   
						7   
						Apart from Egypt, all the 
						Maghreb states are made up of a mixture of Arabs and 
						non-Arab Berbers.    
						In Algeria there is already 
						a civil war raging in the Kabile mountains between the 
						two nations in the country. Morocco and Algeria are at 
						war with each other over Spanish Sahara, in addition to 
						the internal struggle in each of them. Militant Islam 
						endangers the integrity of Tunisia and Qaddafi organizes 
						wars which are destructive from the Arab point of view, 
						from a country which is sparsely populated and which 
						cannot become a powerful nation.    
						That is why he has been 
						attempting unifications in the past with states that are 
						more genuine, like Egypt and Syria. Sudan, the most torn 
						apart state in the Arab Moslem world today is built upon 
						four groups hostile to each other, an Arab Moslem Sunni 
						minority which rules over a majority of non-Arab 
						Africans, Pagans, and Christians.   
						In Egypt there is a Sunni 
						Moslem majority facing a large minority of Christians 
						which is dominant in upper Egypt: some 7 million of 
						them, so that even Sadat, in his speech on May 8, 
						expressed the fear that they will want a state of their 
						own, something like a "second" Christian Lebanon in 
						Egypt.   
						
						8   
						All the Arab States east of 
						Israel are torn apart, broken up and riddled with inner 
						conflict even more than those of the Maghreb. 
						   
						Syria is fundamentally no 
						different from Lebanon except in the strong military 
						regime which rules it. But the real civil war taking 
						place nowadays between the Sunni majority and the 
						Shi'ite Alawi ruling minority (a mere 12% of the 
						population) testifies to the severity of the domestic 
						trouble.   
						9   
						Iraq is, once again, no 
						different in essence from its neighbors, although its 
						majority is Shi'ite and the ruling minority Sunni.
						   
						Sixty-five percent of the 
						population has no say in politics, in which an elite of 
						20 percent holds the power. In addition there is a large 
						Kurdish minority in the north, and if it weren't for the 
						strength of the ruling regime, the army and the oil 
						revenues, Iraq's future state would be no different than 
						that of Lebanon in the past or of Syria today. 
						   
						The seeds of inner conflict 
						and civil war are apparent today already, especially 
						after the rise of Khomeini to power in Iran, a leader 
						whom the Shi'ites in Iraq view as their natural leader.   
						10   
						All the Gulf principalities 
						and Saudi Arabia are built upon a delicate house of sand 
						in which there is only oil.   
						In Kuwait, the Kuwaitis 
						constitute only a quarter of the population. In Bahrain, 
						the Shi'ites are the majority but are deprived of power. 
						In the UAE, Shi'ites are once again the majority but the 
						Sunnis are in power. The same is true of Oman and North 
						Yemen.    
						Even in the Marxist South 
						Yemen there is a sizable Shi'ite minority. In Saudi 
						Arabia half the population is foreign, Egyptian and 
						Yemenite, but a Saudi minority holds power.   
						11   
						Jordan is in reality 
						Palestinian, ruled by a Trans-Jordanian Bedouin 
						minority, but most of the army and certainly the 
						bureaucracy is now Palestinian.    
						As a matter of fact Amman is 
						as Palestinian as Nablus. All of these countries have 
						powerful armies, relatively speaking. But there is a 
						problem there too. The Syrian army today is mostly Sunni 
						with an Alawi officer corps, the Iraqi army Shi'ite with 
						Sunni commanders.    
						This has great significance 
						in the long run, and that is why it will not be possible 
						to retain the loyalty of the army for a long time except 
						where it comes to the only common denominator: The 
						hostility towards Israel, and today even that is 
						insufficient.   
						12   
						Alongside the Arabs, split 
						as they are, the other Moslem states share a similar 
						predicament.    
						Half of Iran's population is 
						comprised of a Persian speaking group and the other half 
						of an ethnically Turkish group. Turkey's population 
						comprises a Turkish Sunni Moslem majority, some 50%, and 
						two large minorities, 12 million Shi'ite Alawis and 6 
						million Sunni Kurds. In Afghanistan there are 5 million 
						Shi'ites who constitute one third of the population.
						   
						In Sunni Pakistan there are 
						15 million Shi'ites who endanger the existence of that 
						state.   
						13   
						This national ethnic 
						minority picture extending from Morocco to India and 
						from Somalia to Turkey points to the absence of 
						stability and a rapid degeneration in the entire region.
						   
						When this picture is added 
						to the economic one, we see how the entire region is 
						built like a house of cards, unable to withstand its 
						severe problems.   
						14   
						In this giant and 
						fractured world there are a few wealthy groups and a 
						huge mass of poor people. Most of the Arabs have an 
						average yearly income of 300 dollars. That is the 
						situation in Egypt, in most of the Maghreb countries 
						except for Libya, and in Iraq. Lebanon is torn apart and 
						its economy is falling to pieces.    
						It is a state in which 
						there is no centralized power, but only 5 de facto 
						sovereign authorities (Christian in the north, supported 
						by the Syrians and under the rule of the Franjieh clan, 
						in the East an area of direct Syrian conquest, in the 
						center a Phalangist controlled Christian enclave, in the 
						south and up to the Litani river a mostly Palestinian 
						region controlled by the PLO and Major Haddad's state of 
						Christians and half a million Shi'ites). 
						   
						Syria is in an even 
						graver situation and even the assistance she will obtain 
						in the future after the unification with Libya will not 
						be sufficient for dealing with the basic problems of 
						existence and the maintenance of a large army. Egypt is 
						in the worst situation: Millions are on the verge of 
						hunger, half the labor force is unemployed, and housing 
						is scarce in this most densely populated area of the 
						world.    
						Except for the army, 
						there is not a single department operating efficiently 
						and the state is in a permanent state of bankruptcy and 
						depends entirely on American foreign assistance granted 
						since the peace. 6   
						15   
						In the Gulf states, Saudi 
						Arabia, Libya and Egypt there is the largest 
						accumulation of money and oil in the world, but those 
						enjoying it are tiny elites who lack a wide base of 
						support and self-confidence, something that no army can 
						guarantee. 7    
						The Saudi army with all its 
						equipment cannot defend the regime from real dangers at 
						home or abroad, and what took place in Mecca in 1980 is 
						only an example. A sad and very stormy situation 
						surrounds Israel and creates challenges for it, 
						problems, risks but also far-reaching opportunities 
						for the first time since 1967.    
						Chances are that 
						opportunities missed at that time will become 
						achievable in the Eighties to an extent and along 
						dimensions which we cannot even imagine today.   
						16   
						The "peace" policy and the 
						return of territories, through a dependence upon the US, 
						precludes the realization of the new option created for 
						us.    
						Since 1967, all the 
						governments of Israel have tied our national aims down 
						to narrow political needs, on the one hand, and on the 
						other to destructive opinions at home which neutralized 
						our capacities both at home and abroad.    
						Failing to take steps 
						towards the Arab population in the new territories, 
						acquired in the course of a war forced upon us, is the 
						major strategic error committed by Israel on the morning 
						after the Six Day War. We could have saved ourselves all 
						the bitter and dangerous conflict since then if we had 
						given Jordan to the Palestinians who live west of the 
						Jordan river.    
						By doing that we would have 
						neutralized the Palestinian problem which we nowadays 
						face, and to which we have found solutions that are 
						really no solutions at all, such as territorial 
						compromise or autonomy which amount, in fact, to the 
						same thing. 8    
						Today, we suddenly face 
						immense opportunities for transforming the situation 
						thoroughly and this we must do in the coming decade, 
						otherwise we shall not survive as a state.   
						
						17   
						In the course of the 
						Nineteen Eighties, the State of Israel will have to go 
						through far-reaching changes in its political and 
						economic regime domestically, along with radical changes 
						in its foreign policy, in order to stand up to the 
						global and regional challenges of this new epoch. 
						   
						The loss of the Suez Canal 
						oil fields, of the immense potential of the oil, gas and 
						other natural resources in the Sinai peninsula which is 
						geomorphologically identical to the rich oil-producing 
						countries in the region, will result in an energy drain 
						in the near future and will destroy our domestic 
						economy: one quarter of our present GNP as well as one 
						third of the budget is used for the purchase of oil.
						9    
						The search for raw materials 
						in the Negev and on the coast will not, in the near 
						future, serve to alter that state of affairs.   
						18   
						(Regaining) the Sinai 
						peninsula with its present and potential resources 
						is therefore a political priority which is 
						obstructed by the Camp David and the peace agreements.
						   
						The fault for that 
						lies of course with the present Israeli 
						government and the governments which paved the road to 
						the policy of territorial compromise, the Alignment 
						governments since 1967. The Egyptians will not need to 
						keep the peace treaty after the return of the Sinai, and 
						they will do all they can to return to the fold of the 
						Arab world and to the USSR in order to gain support and 
						military assistance.    
						American aid is 
						guaranteed only for a short while, for the terms of the 
						peace and the weakening of the U.S. both at home and 
						abroad will bring about a reduction in aid. 
						   
						Without oil and the 
						income from it, with the present enormous expenditure, 
						we will not be able to get through 1982 under the 
						present conditions and we will have to act in order 
						to return the situation to the status 
						quo which existed in Sinai prior to Sadat's visit and 
						the mistaken peace agreement signed with him in March 
						1979. 10   
						19   
						Israel has two major routes 
						through which to realize this purpose, one direct and 
						the other indirect.    
						The direct option is the 
						less realistic one because of the nature of the regime 
						and government in Israel as well as the wisdom of Sadat 
						who obtained our withdrawal from Sinai, which was, next 
						to the war of 1973, his major achievement since he took 
						power.    
						Israel will not unilaterally 
						break the treaty, neither today, nor in 1982, unless it 
						is very hard pressed economically and politically 
						and Egypt provides Israel with the excuse 
						to take the Sinai back into our hands for the fourth 
						time in our short history.   
						What is left 
						therefore, is the indirect option. The economic 
						situation in Egypt, the nature of the regime and its 
						pan-Arab 
						policy, will bring about a situation after April 1982 in 
						which Israel will be forced to act directly or 
						indirectly in order to regain control over Sinai as 
						a strategic, economic and energy reserve for the long
						run.    
						Egypt does not 
						constitute a military strategic problem due to its 
						internal conflicts and it could be driven back 
						to the post 1967 war situation in no more than one day.11   
						20   
						The myth of Egypt as the 
						strong leader of the Arab World was demolished back in 
						1956 and definitely did not survive 1967, but our 
						policy, as in the return of the Sinai, served to turn 
						the myth into "fact."    
						In reality, however, Egypt's 
						power in proportion both to Israel alone and to the rest 
						of the Arab World has gone down about 50 percent since 
						1967.    
						Egypt is no longer the 
						leading political power in the Arab World and is 
						economically on the verge of a crisis. Without foreign 
						assistance the crisis will come tomorrow. 12
						   
						In the short run, due to the 
						return of the Sinai, Egypt will gain several advantages 
						at our expense, but only in the short run until 1982, 
						and that will not change the balance of power to its 
						benefit, and will possibly bring about its downfall. 
						Egypt, in its present domestic political picture, is 
						already a corpse, all the more so if we take into 
						account the growing Moslem-Christian rift.    
						Breaking Egypt 
						down territorially into distinct geographical regions is 
						the political aim of Israel in the Nineteen Eighties on 
						its Western front.   
						21   
						Egypt is divided and 
						torn apart into many foci of authority. 
						   
						If Egypt falls apart, 
						countries like Libya, Sudan or even the more distant 
						states will not continue to exist in their present form 
						and will join the downfall and dissolution 
						of Egypt.    
						
						The vision of a Christian 
						Coptic State in Upper Egypt alongside a number of weak 
						states with very localized power and without a 
						centralized government as to date, is the key to a 
						historical development which was only set back by the 
						peace agreement but which seems inevitable in the long 
						run. 13   
						22   
						The Western front, 
						which on the surface appears more problematic, is in 
						fact less complicated than the Eastern front, in which 
						most of the events that make the headlines have been 
						taking place recently.    
						Lebanon's total 
						dissolution into five provinces serves as a 
						precendent for the entire Arab world including 
						Egypt, Syria, Iraq and the Arabian peninsula and is 
						already following that track.    
						The dissolution of 
						Syria and Iraq later on into ethnically or religiously 
						unique areas such as in Lebanon, is Israel's primary 
						target on the Eastern front in the long run, while the 
						dissolution of the military power of those states serves 
						as the primary short term target. 
						   
						Syria will fall apart, 
						in accordance with its ethnic and religious structure, 
						into several states such as in present day Lebanon, so 
						that there will be a Shi'ite Alawi state along its 
						coast, a Sunni state in the Aleppo area, another Sunni 
						state in Damascus hostile to its northern neighbor, and 
						the Druzes who will set up a state, maybe even in 
						our Golan, and certainly in the Hauran and 
						in northern Jordan.    
						This state of affairs 
						will be the guarantee for peace and security in the area 
						in the long run, and that aim is already within our 
						reach today.14   
						
						Iraq, rich in oil on 
						the one hand and internally torn on the other, is 
						guaranteed as a candidate for Israel's targets. 
						Its dissolution is even more important for us than that 
						of Syria. Iraq is stronger than Syria. 
						   
						In the short run it is 
						Iraqi power which constitutes the greatest threat to 
						Israel. An Iraqi-Iranian war will tear Iraq apart and 
						cause its downfall at home even before it is able to 
						organize a struggle on a wide front against us. 
						Every kind of inter-Arab confrontation will assist us in 
						the short run and will shorten the way to the 
						more important aim of breaking up Iraq into 
						denominations as in Syria and in Lebanon. 
						   
						In Iraq, a division 
						into provinces along ethnic/religious lines as in Syria 
						during Ottoman times is possible. So, three (or 
						more) states will exist around the three major cities: 
						Basra, Baghdad and Mosul, and Shi'ite areas in the south 
						will separate from the Sunni and Kurdish north. 
						   
						It is possible that 
						the present Iranian-Iraqi confrontation will deepen this 
						polarization.15   
						24   
						The entire Arabian 
						peninsula is a natural candidate for dissolution due to 
						internal and external pressures, and the matter is 
						inevitable especially in Saudi Arabia. 
						   
						Regardless of whether 
						its economic might based on oil remains intact or 
						whether it is diminished in the long run, the internal 
						rifts and breakdowns are a clear and natural development 
						in light of the present political structure.16   
						25   
						Jordan constitutes 
						an immediate strategic target in the short run 
						but not in the long run, for it does 
						not constitute a real threat in the long run
						after its dissolution, the termination of the 
						lengthy rule of King Hussein and the transfer of power 
						to the Palestinians in the short run.   
						26   
						There is no chance 
						that Jordan will continue to exist in its present 
						structure for a long time, and Israel's policy, both in 
						war and in peace, ought to be directed at the 
						liquidation of Jordan under the present regime and the 
						transfer of power to the Palestinian majority. 
						   
						Changing the regime 
						east of the river will also cause the termination of 
						the problem of the territories densely populated with 
						Arabs west of the Jordan. Whether in war or 
						under conditions of peace, emigration from the 
						territories and economic demographic freeze in them, are 
						the guarantees for the coming change on both banks of 
						the river, and we ought to be active in order to 
						accelerate this process in the nearest future.
						   
						The autonomy plan 
						ought also to be rejected, as well as any 
						compromise or division of the territories for, given the 
						plans of the PLO and those of the Israeli Arabs 
						themselves, the Shefa'amr plan of September 1980, it is 
						not possible to go on living in this country in the 
						present situation without separating the two nations, 
						the Arabs to Jordan and the Jews to the areas west of 
						the river.    
						Genuine coexistence 
						and peace will reign over the land only when 
						the Arabs understand that without Jewish rule between 
						the Jordan and the sea they will have neither existence 
						nor security. A nation of their own and security will be 
						theirs only in Jordan. 17   
						27   
						
						Within Israel the 
						distinction between the areas of '67 and the territories 
						beyond them, those of '48, has always been meaningless 
						for Arabs and nowadays no longer has any significance 
						for us.    
						The problem should be seen 
						in its entirety without any divisions as of '67. 
						   
						It should be clear, under 
						any future political situation or military 
						constellation, that the solution of the problem of 
						the indigenous Arabs will come only when they 
						recognize the existence of Israel in secure borders up 
						to the Jordan river and beyond it, as our 
						existential need in this difficult epoch, the 
						nuclear epoch which we shall soon enter.    
						It is no longer 
						possible to live with three fourths of the Jewish 
						population on the dense shoreline which is so dangerous 
						in a nuclear epoch.   
						28   
						Dispersal of the 
						population is therefore a domestic strategic aim of the 
						highest order; otherwise, we shall cease to exist within 
						any borders.    
						Judea, Samaria and the 
						Galilee are our sole guarantee for national existence, 
						and if we do not become the majority in the mountain 
						areas, we shall not rule in the country and we shall be 
						like the Crusaders, who lost this country which was not 
						theirs anyhow, and in which they were foreigners to 
						begin with. Rebalancing the country demographically, 
						strategically and economically is the highest and most 
						central aim today.    
						Taking hold of the 
						mountain watershed from Beersheba to the Upper Galilee 
						is the national aim generated by the major strategic 
						consideration which is settling the mountainous part of 
						the country that is empty of Jews today.
						18   
						29   
						Realizing our aims on 
						the Eastern front depends first on the realization of 
						this internal strategic objective.    
						The transformation of 
						the political and economic structure, so as to enable 
						the realization of these strategic aims, is the key to 
						achieving the entire change. We need to change from a 
						centralized economy in which the government is 
						extensively involved, to an open and free market as well 
						as to switch from depending upon the U.S. taxpayer to 
						developing, with our own hands, of a genuine productive 
						economic infrastructure.    
						If we are not able to 
						make this change freely and voluntarily, we shall be 
						forced into it by world developments, especially in the 
						areas of economics, energy, and politics, and by our own 
						growing isolation.19   
						30   
						From a military and 
						strategic point of view, the West led by the U.S. is 
						unable to withstand the global pressures of the USSR 
						throughout the world, and Israel must therefore stand 
						alone in the Eighties, without any foreign assistance, 
						military or economic, and 
						this is within our capacities today, with no
						compromises.
						20    
						Rapid changes in 
						the world will also bring about a change in the 
						condition of world Jewry to which Israel will become not 
						only a last resort but the only existential option. 
						   
						
						We cannot assume that 
						U.S. Jews, and the communities of Europe and Latin 
						America will continue to exist in the present 
						form in the future.21   
						31   
						
						Our existence in this 
						country itself is certain, and there is no force that 
						could remove us from here either forcefully or by 
						treachery (Sadat's method).    
						Despite the difficulties of 
						the mistaken "peace" policy and the problem of 
						the Israeli Arabs and those of the territories, we can 
						effectively deal with these problems in the foreseeable 
						future.       
						
						Conclusion   
						1   
						Three important points have 
						to be clarified in order to be able to understand the 
						significant possibilities of realization of this Zionist 
						plan for the Middle East, and also why it had to be 
						published.   
						2   
						The Military 
						Background of The Plan   
						The military conditions of 
						this plan have not been mentioned above, but on the many 
						occasions where something very like it is being 
						"explained" in closed meetings to members of the Israeli 
						Establishment, this point is clarified.    
						It is assumed that the 
						Israeli military forces, in all their branches, are 
						insufficient for the actual work of occupation of such 
						wide territories as discussed above. In fact, even in 
						times of intense Palestinian "unrest" on the West Bank, 
						the forces of the Israeli Army are stretched out too 
						much.    
						The answer to that is the 
						method of ruling by means of "Haddad forces" or of 
						"Village Associations" (also known as "Village 
						Leagues"): local forces under "leaders" completely 
						dissociated from the population, not having even any 
						feudal or party structure (such as the Phalangists have, 
						for example).    
						The "states" proposed by 
						Yinon are "Haddadland" and "Village Associations," and 
						their armed forces will be, no doubt, quite similar.
						   
						In addition, Israeli 
						military superiority in such a situation will be much 
						greater than it is even now, so that any movement of 
						revolt will be "punished" either by mass humiliation as 
						in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, or by bombardment and 
						obliteration of cities, as in Lebanon now (June 1982), 
						or by both.   
						In order to ensure this, 
						the plan, as explained orally, calls for the 
						establishment of Israeli garrisons in focal places 
						between the mini states, equipped with the necessary 
						mobile destructive forces.    
						In fact, we have seen 
						something like this in Haddadland and we will almost 
						certainly soon see the first example of this system 
						functioning either in South Lebanon or in all Lebanon.   
						3   
						It is obvious that the above 
						military assumptions, and the whole plan too, depend 
						also on the Arabs continuing to be even more divided 
						than they are now, and on the lack of any truly 
						progressive mass movement among them.    
						It may be that those two 
						conditions will be removed only when the plan will be 
						well advanced, with consequences which can not be 
						foreseen.   
						
						4   
						Why it is necessary 
						to publish this in Israel?   
						The reason for publication 
						is the dual nature of the Israeli-Jewish society: 
						 
							
							A very great measure of 
							freedom and democracy, specially for Jews, combined 
							with expansionism and racist discrimination. 
							 
						In such a situation the 
						Israeli-Jewish elite (for the masses follow the TV and 
						Begin's speeches) has to be persuaded.
						   
						The first steps in the 
						process of persuasion are oral, as indicated above, but 
						a time comes in which it becomes inconvenient. 
						Written material must be produced for the benefit of the 
						more stupid "persuaders" and "explainers" (for example 
						medium-rank officers, who are, usually, remarkably 
						stupid).    
						They then "learn it," more 
						or less, and preach to others. It should be remarked 
						that Israel, and even the Yishuv from the Twenties, has 
						always functioned in this way.    
						I myself well remember how 
						(before I was "in opposition") the necessity of war with 
						was explained to me and others a year before the 1956 
						war, and the necessity of conquering "the rest of 
						Western Palestine when we will have the opportunity" was 
						explained in the years 1965-67.   
						5   
						Why is it assumed 
						that there is no special risk from the outside in the 
						publication of such plans?   
						Such risks can come from two 
						sources, so long as the principled opposition inside 
						Israel is very weak (a situation which may change as a 
						consequence of the war on Lebanon):
						 
							
						 
						The Arab World has shown 
						itself so far quite incapable of a detailed and rational 
						analysis of Israeli-Jewish society, and the Palestinians 
						have been, on the average, no better than the rest. In 
						such a situation, even those who are shouting about the 
						dangers of Israeli expansionism (which are real enough) 
						are doing this not because of factual and detailed 
						knowledge, but because of belief in myth. 
						   
						A good example is the very 
						persistent belief in the non-existent writing on the 
						wall of the Knesset of the Biblical verse about the Nile 
						and the Euphrates.    
						Another example is the 
						persistent, and completely false declarations, which 
						were made by some of the most important Arab leaders, 
						that the two blue stripes of the Israeli flag symbolize 
						the Nile and the Euphrates, while in fact they are taken 
						from the stripes of the Jewish praying shawl (Talit).
						   
						The Israeli specialists 
						assume that, on the whole, the Arabs will pay no 
						attention to their serious discussions of the future, 
						and the Lebanon war has proved them right.    
						So why should they not 
						continue with their old methods of persuading other 
						Israelis?   
						6   
						In the United States a very 
						similar situation exists, at least until now. 
						   
						The more or less serious 
						commentators take their information about Israel, and 
						much of their opinions about it, from two sources. The 
						first is from articles in the "liberal" American press, 
						written almost totally by Jewish admirers of Israel who, 
						even if they are critical of some aspects of the Israeli 
						state, practice loyally what Stalin used to call "the 
						constructive criticism."    
						(In fact those among them 
						who claim also to be "Anti-Stalinist" are in reality 
						more Stalinist than Stalin, with Israel being their god 
						which has not yet failed).    
						In the framework of such 
						critical worship it must be assumed that Israel has 
						always "good intentions" and only "makes mistakes," and 
						therefore such a plan would not be a matter for 
						discussion - exactly as the Biblical genocides committed 
						by Jews are not mentioned.    
						The other source of 
						information, The Jerusalem Post, has 
						similar policies.    
						So long, therefore, as the 
						situation exists in which Israel is really a "closed 
						society" to the rest of the world, because the world 
						wants to close its eyes, the publication and even 
						the beginning of the realization of such a plan is 
						realistic and feasible.   
						Israel ShahakJune 17, 1982
 
						Jerusalem       
			Notes 
				
					
						
							
							1. American Universities 
							Field Staff. Report No.33, 1979. According to this 
							research, the population of the world will be 6 
							billion in the year 2000. Today's world population 
							can be broken down as follows: China, 958 million; 
							India, 635 million; USSR, 261 million; U.S., 218 
							million Indonesia, 140 million; Brazil and Japan, 
							110 million each. According to the figures of the 
							U.N. Population Fund for 1980, there will be, in 
							2000, 50 cities with a population of over 5 million 
							each. The population ofthp;Third World will then be 
							80% of the world population. According to Justin 
							Blackwelder, U.S. Census Office chief, the world 
							population will not reach 6 billion because of 
							hunger.
 2. Soviet nuclear policy has been well summarized by 
							two American Sovietologists: Joseph D. Douglas and 
							Amoretta M. Hoeber, Soviet Strategy for Nuclear War, 
							(Stanford, Ca., Hoover Inst. Press, 1979). In the 
							Soviet Union tens and hundreds of articles and books 
							are published each year which detail the Soviet 
							doctrine for nuclear war and there is a great deal 
							of documentation translated into English and 
							published by the U.S. Air Force, including USAF: 
							Marxism-Leninism on War and the Army: The Soviet 
							View, Moscow, 1972; USAF: The Armed Forces of the 
							Soviet State. Moscow, 1975, by Marshal A. Grechko. 
							The basic Soviet approach to the matter is presented 
							in the book by Marshal Sokolovski published in 1962 
							in Moscow: Marshal V. D. Sokolovski, Military 
							Strategy, Soviet Doctrine and Concepts(New York, 
							Praeger, 1963).
 
 3. A picture of Soviet intentions in various areas 
							of the world can be drawn from the book by Douglas 
							and Hoeber, ibid. For additional material see: 
							Michael Morgan, "USSR's Minerals as Strategic Weapon 
							in the Future," Defense and Foreign Affairs, 
							Washington, D.C., Dec. 1979.
 
 4. Admiral of the Fleet Sergei Gorshkov, Sea Power 
							and the State, London, 1979. Morgan, loc. cit. 
							General George S. Brown (USAF) C-JCS, Statement to 
							the Congress on the Defense Posture of the United 
							States For Fiscal Year 1979, p. 103; National 
							Security Council, Review of Non-Fuel Mineral Policy, 
							(Washington, D.C. 1979,); Drew Middleton, The New 
							York Times, (9/15/79); Time, 9/21/80.
 
 5. Elie Kedourie, "The End of the Ottoman Empire," 
							Journal of Contemporary History, Vol. 3, No.4, 1968.
 
 6. Al-Thawra, Syria 12/20/79, Al-Ahram,12/30/79, Al 
							Ba'ath, Syria, 5/6/79. 55% of the Arabs are 20 years 
							old and younger, 70% of the Arabs live in Africa, 
							55% of the Arabs under 15 are unemployed, 33% live 
							in urban areas, Oded Yinon, "Egypt's Population 
							Problem," The Jerusalem Quarterly, No. 15, Spring 
							1980.
 
 7. E. Kanovsky, "Arab Haves and Have Nots," The 
							Jerusalem Quarterly, No.1, Fall 1976, Al Ba'ath, 
							Syria, 5/6/79.
 
 8. In his book, former Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin 
							said that the Israeli government is in fact 
							responsible for the design of American policy in the 
							Middle East, after June '67, because of its own 
							indecisiveness as to the future of the territories 
							and the inconsistency in its positions since it 
							established the background for Resolution 242 and 
							certainly twelve years later for the Camp David 
							agreements and the peace treaty with Egypt. 
							According to Rabin, on June 19, 1967, President 
							Johnson sent a letter to Prime Minister Eshkol in 
							which he did not mention anything about withdrawal 
							from the new territories but exactly on the same day 
							the government resolved to return territories in 
							exchange for peace. After the Arab resolutions in 
							Khartoum (9/1/67) the government altered its 
							position but contrary to its decision of June 19, 
							did not notify the U.S. of the alteration and the 
							U.S. continued to support 242 in the Security 
							Council on the basis of its earlier understanding 
							that Israel is prepared to return territories. At 
							that point it was already too late to change the 
							U.S. position and Israel's policy. From here the way 
							was opened to peace agreements on the basis of 242 
							as was later agreed upon in Camp David. See Yitzhak 
							Rabin. Pinkas Sherut, (Ma'ariv 1979) pp. 226-227.
 
 9. Foreign and Defense Committee Chairman Prof. 
							Moshe Arens argued in an interview (Ma 
							‘ariv,10/3/80) that the Israeli government failed to 
							prepare an economic plan before the Camp David 
							agreements and was itself surprised by the cost of 
							the agreements, although already during the 
							negotiations it was possible to calculate the heavy 
							price and the serious error involved in not having 
							prepared the economic grounds for peace.
 
 The former Minister of Treasury, Mr. Yigal Holwitz, 
							stated that if it were not for the withdrawal from 
							the oil fields, Israel would have a positive balance 
							of payments (9/17/80). That same person said two 
							years earlier that the government of Israel (from 
							which he withdrew) had placed a noose around his 
							neck. He was referring to the Camp David agreements 
							(Ha'aretz, 11/3/78). In the course of the whole 
							peace negotiations neither an expert nor an 
							economics advisor was consulted, and the Prime 
							Minister himself, who lacks knowledge and expertise 
							in economics, in a mistaken initiative, asked the 
							U.S. to give us a loan rather than a grant, due to 
							his wish to maintain our respect and the respect of 
							the U.S. towards us. See Ha'aretz1/5/79. Jerusalem 
							Post, 9/7/79. Prof Asaf Razin, formerly a senior 
							consultant in the Treasury, strongly criticized the 
							conduct of the negotiations; Ha'aretz, 5/5/79. 
							Ma'ariv, 9/7/79. As to matters concerning the oil 
							fields and Israel's energy crisis, see the interview 
							with Mr. Eitan Eisenberg, a government advisor on 
							these matters, Ma'arive Weekly, 12/12/78. The Energy 
							Minister, who personally signed the Camp David 
							agreements and the evacuation of Sdeh Alma, has 
							since emphasized the seriousness of our condition 
							from the point of view of oil supplies more than 
							once…see Yediot Ahronot, 7/20/79. Energy Minister 
							Modai even admitted that the government did not 
							consult him at all on the subject of oil during the 
							Camp David and Blair House negotiations. Ha'aretz, 
							8/22/79.
 
 10. Many sources report on the growth of the 
							armaments budget in Egypt and on intentions to give 
							the army preference in a peace epoch budget over 
							domestic needs for which a peace was allegedly 
							obtained. See former Prime Minister Mamduh Salam in 
							an interview 12/18/77, Treasury Minister Abd El 
							Sayeh in an interview 7/25/78, and the paper Al 
							Akhbar, 12/2/78 which clearly stressed that the 
							military budget will receive first priority, despite 
							the peace. This is what former Prime Minister 
							Mustafa Khalil has stated in his cabinet's 
							programmatic document which was presented to 
							Parliament, 11/25/78. See English translation, ICA, 
							FBIS, Nov. 27. 1978, pp. D 1-10.
 
 According to these sources, Egypt's military budget 
							increased by 10% between fiscal 1977 and 1978, and 
							the process still goes on. A Saudi source divulged 
							that the Egyptians plan to increase their militmy 
							budget by 100% in the next two years; Ha'aretz, 
							2/12/79 and Jerusalem Post, 1/14/79.
 
 11. Most of the economic estimates threw doubt on 
							Egypt's ability to reconstruct its economy by 1982. 
							See Economic Intelligence Unit, 1978 Supplement, 
							"The Arab Republic of Egypt"; E. Kanovsky, "Recent 
							Economic Developments in the Middle East," 
							Occasional Papers, The Shiloah Institution, June 
							1977; Kanovsky, "The Egyptian Economy Since the 
							Mid-Sixties, The Micro Sectors," Occasional Papers, 
							June 1978; Robert McNamara, President of World Bank, 
							as reported in Times, London, 1/24/78.
 
 12. See the comparison made by the researeh of the 
							Institute for Strategic Studies in London, and 
							research camed out in the Center for Strategic 
							Studies of Tel Aviv University, as well as the 
							research by the British scientist, Denis Champlin, 
							Military Review, Nov. 1979, ISS: The Military 
							Balance 1979-1980, CSS; Security Arrangements in 
							Sinai…by Brig. Gen. (Res.) A Shalev, No. 3.0 CSS; 
							The Military Balance and the Military Options after 
							the Peace Treaty with Egypt, by Brig. Gen. (Res.) Y. 
							Raviv, No.4, Dec. 1978, as well as many press 
							reports including El Hawadeth, London, 3/7/80; El 
							Watan El Arabi, Paris, 12/14/79.
 
 13. As for religious ferment in Egypt and the 
							relations between Copts and Moslems see the series 
							of articles published in the Kuwaiti paper, El Qabas, 
							9/15/80. The English author Irene Beeson reports on 
							the rift between Moslems and Copts, see: Irene 
							Beeson, Guardian, London, 6/24/80, and Desmond 
							Stewart, Middle East Internmational, London 6/6/80. 
							For other reports see Pamela Ann Smith, Guardian, 
							London, 12/24/79; The Christian Science Monitor 
							12/27/79 as well as Al Dustour, London, 10/15/79; El 
							Kefah El Arabi, 10/15/79.
 
 14. Arab Press Service, Beirut, 8/6-13/80. The New 
							Republic, 8/16/80, Der Spiegel as cited by Ha'aretz, 
							3/21/80, and 4/30-5/5/80; The Economist, 3/22/80; 
							Robert Fisk, Times, London, 3/26/80; Ellsworth 
							Jones, Sunday Times, 3/30/80.
 
 15. J.P. Peroncell Hugoz, Le Monde, Paris 4/28/80; 
							Dr. Abbas Kelidar, Middle East Review, Summer 1979;
 
 Conflict Studies, ISS, July 1975; Andreas 
							Kolschitter, Der Zeit, (Ha'aretz, 9/21/79) Economist 
							Foreign Report, 10/10/79, Afro-Asian Affairs, 
							London, July 1979.
 
 16. Arnold Hottinger, "The Rich Arab States in 
							Trouble," The New York Review of Books, 5/15/80; 
							Arab Press Service, Beirut, 6/25-7/2/80; U.S. News 
							and World Report, 11/5/79 as well as El Ahram, 
							11/9/79; El Nahar El Arabi Wal Duwali, Paris 9/7/79; 
							El Hawadeth, 11/9/79; David Hakham, Monthly Review, 
							IDF, Jan.-Feb. 79.
 
 17. As for Jordan's policies and problems see El 
							Nahar El Arabi Wal Duwali, 4/30/79, 7/2/79; Prof. 
							Elie Kedouri, Ma'ariv 6/8/79; Prof. Tanter, Davar 
							7/12/79; A. Safdi, Jerusalem Post, 5/31/79; El Watan 
							El Arabi 11/28/79; El Qabas, 11/19/79. As for PLO 
							positions see: The resolutions of the Fatah Fourth 
							Congress, Damascus, August 1980. The Shefa'amr 
							program of the Israeli Arabs was published in 
							Ha'aretz, 9/24/80, and by Arab Press Report 6/18/80. 
							For facts and figures on immigration of Arabs to 
							Jordan, see Amos Ben Vered, Ha'aretz, 2/16/77; 
							Yossef Zuriel, Ma'ariv 1/12/80. As to the PLO's 
							position towards Israel see Shlomo Gazit, Monthly 
							Review; July 1980; Hani El Hasan in an interview, Al 
							Rai Al'Am, Kuwait 4/15/80; Avi Plaskov, "The 
							Palestinian Problem," Survival, ISS, London Jan. 
							Feb. 78; David Gutrnann, "The Palestinian Myth," 
							Commentary, Oct. 75; Bernard Lewis, "The 
							Palestinians and the PLO," Commentary Jan. 75; 
							Monday Morning, Beirut, 8/18-21/80; Journal of 
							Palestine Studies, Winter 1980.
 
 18. Prof. Yuval Neeman, "Samaria - The Basis for 
							Israel's Security," Ma'arakhot 272-273, May/June 
							1980; Ya'akov Hasdai, "Peace, the Way and the Right 
							to Know," Dvar Hashavua, 2/23/80. Aharon Yariv, 
							"Strategic Depth - An Israeli Perspective," 
							Ma'arakhot 270-271, October 1979; Yitzhak Rabin, 
							"Israel's Defense Problems in the Eighties," 
							Ma'arakhot October 1979.
 
 19. Ezra Zohar, In the Regime's Pliers (Shikmona, 
							1974); Motti Heinrich, Do We have a Chance Israel, 
							Truth Versus Legend (Reshafim, 1981).
 
 20. Henry Kissinger, "The Lessons of the Past," The 
							Washington Review Vol 1, Jan. 1978; Arthur Ross, 
							"OPEC's Challenge to the West," The Washington 
							Quarterly, Winter, 1980; Walter Levy, "Oil and the 
							Decline of the West," Foreign Affairs, Summer 1980; 
							Special Report - "Our Armed Forees-Ready or Not?" 
							U.S. News and World Report 10/10/77; Stanley 
							Hoffman, "Reflections on the Present Danger," The 
							New York Review of Books 3/6/80; Time 4/3/80; 
							Leopold Lavedez "The illusions of SALT" Commentary 
							Sept. 79; Norman Podhoretz, "The Present Danger," 
							Commentary March 1980; Robert Tucker, "Oil and 
							American Power Six Years Later," Commentary Sept. 
							1979; Norman Podhoretz, "The Abandonment of Israel," 
							Commentary July 1976; Elie Kedourie, "Misreading the 
							Middle East," Commentary July 1979.
 
 21. According to figures published by Ya'akov Karoz, 
							Yediot Ahronot, 10/17/80, the sum total of 
							anti-Semitic incidents recorded in the world in 1979 
							was double the amount recorded in 1978. In Germany, 
							France, and Britain the number of anti-Semitic 
							incidents was many times greater in that year. In 
							the U.S. as well there has been a sharp increase in 
							anti-Semitic incidents which were reported in that 
							article. For the new anti-Semitism, see L. Talmon, 
							"The New Anti-Semitism," The New Republic, 
							9/18/1976; Barbara Tuchman, "They poisoned the 
							Wells," Newsweek 2/3/75.
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