First, Russia has
operated an immense change of course following centuries of
Europe-focused policies, Russia has now turned to the South
(Latin America, Africa, Asian subcontinent) and, especially, to
the East and China.
For example, Russia
has just started pumping gas through its immense "Power of
Siberia" project. In economic terms, only Germany really matters
to Russia (and even that, not vitally) and Russia will get from
Germany what she wants (NS2 of course, but not only that).
Second, Russia really is doing fine with sanctions and, in fact,
the Russian agroindustry hopes that sanctions will remain in
place.
In reality, there are plenty of sectors of the Russian
economy which are doing great thanks to these sanctions which
have literally forced Russia to reform.
This is ironical, but
the Russian nation owes a great debt of gratitude to the leaders
of the AngloZionist Empire which, with their sanctions, have
mitigated the worst aspects of the Russian membership in the WTO
or its integration into political, financial and economic
structures controlled by the USA.
Finally, it is pretty clear that the Ukraine has lost the war
against the LDNR, and that WITHOUT overt Russian intervention.
Which means that
Putin's original decision NOT to intervene was the right one.
As for the Ukraine, she
is basically finished. As is Zelenskii, by the way...
For him, the ONLY chance
to get anything done was to tackle the Neo-Nazis frontally and to
use the support the vast majority of the people of the Ukraine gave
him. He failed to do that.
He is probably the
poster-boy for the concepts of "failure" and "loser" but, in all
fairness to him, he probably never had a chance.
Conclusion 1 - The Big Question: what will the Nazis do next?
Clearly, the Nazi, who represent about 15 maybe 20 percent of
the population will continue their drive to crush Zelenskii and
his plans.
Though Zelenskii
caved in to pretty much all their demands, their political
survival depends on creating and maintaining a crisis.
They are
fully aware that 80 percent or so of Ukrainians are
categorically against their ideology, so if they can't get what
they want by the ballot, then logically the bullet is their only
choice.
And, make no mistake,
they risk big.
What do they risk...?
Well, for starters,
-
they risk losing all their sources of income
-
they risk
disappointing their US bosses
-
they risk being prosecuted and
jailed for lengthy jail terms
-
they even risk their very
lives (by the state or by lynchings)
They know that very well...
But that is not even
the most important thing.
What matters most is this:
The Ukraine was a russophobic chimera created by
the Papacy and
endorsed by ALL subsequent European regimes, rulers and powers
that be.
The Euromaidan coup
marked the apogee of this ideology.
From now on it's all
downhill not because the Ukrainian people suddenly all fell in
love with their Russian roots or with Putin (although the latter
is debatable), but because that ideology brought nothing but
death, suffering, disgrace and abject failure to the Ukraine.
I was listening to
Sergei Kurginian (a very smart, if controversial, Russian
expert) who explained that what we see today in the Ukraine is
not a state, it is what he called the "illusion of statehood".
He is spot on and I
can only agree with him.
Conclusion
2: the Ukraine will break-up
Never say never, right? And dramatic reversals do happen. Even
miracles sometimes...
But my personal
feeling is that the Ukraine will break-up. The LDNR will join
Russia, the western Ukraine will either be absorbed by its
western neighbors, if not politically, then at least
economically. That western Ukraine
might even join NATO.
What will happen with the southern and
north-central Ukraine is hard to predict, but the geostrategic
realities being what they are, their best chance is to become a
neutral bridge of some sort between the EU and the Russian civilizational realm (RF, Belarus, Kazakhastan, etc.).
Sounds extreme?
Let
me explain then my reasons:
A unitary Ukraine
inside her official borders will never happen again because
the LDNR will never EVER agree to be ruled by Kiev.
Sure, a
pretend-integration in which the LDNR is part of some kind
of confederate Ukraine was probably possible until today,
now that train has apparently left.
Even in the rump-Ukraine (minus the LDNR and Crimea) the
real neo-Nazis are a small minority, strongly associated
with the western provinces of the Ukraine which were added
to the Ukraine by Stalin (Russian Communist don't like to
remember that one, any more than they like to remember that
their hero Lenin was the one who gave the Ukraine its
statehood).
In other words, in historical terms the only
real russophobic Ukraine is the western Ukraine, a much MUCH
smaller piece of land.
I can't imagine the southern and
central regions of the rump-Ukraine will accept to be ruled
by "zapadentsy" ("западенцы" meaning "westerners")
Banderites.
The western Ukraine is rather poor, underdeveloped and
rural/agricultural.
In sharp contrast, the southern Ukraine
was always rather rich thanks to a lot of advanced
industries (they even built aircraft carriers!) and,
culturally speaking, they have absolutely nothing in common
with the "zapadentsy" nutcases (if only because the southern
Ukraine is a fantastic mix of nationalities and religions!).
As for Kiev, historically called the "mother of Russian
cities", she will probably become the scene of a huge
struggle between the Neonazis and the rest of the Ukrainian
people, but in the end the historical reality will prevail
and she will inevitably join the Russian civilizational
realm in some form or another.
It happens that a
break-up is probably the best realistic outcome to begin with (I
explained why in details
here).
Conclusion
3: why the Ukraine is dead
Think of the Ukraine as a human body afflicted with a malignant
tumor.
That tumor is the
russophobic ideology created by the Papacy. It is clear that it
must be excised for the rest of the body to survive.
But, as we all know,
how do you kill/remove the tumor without killing the body?
I am not talking
about a distinct Ukrainian identity, which has ALWAYS existed
for simple and undeniable historical reasons:
the history of the
people who live in today's Ukraine has been different from the
rest of the Russian people for centuries.
For example, Russians
in what is the Russian Federation never lived under long-term
Polish occupations, whereas Ukrainian Russians did.
Another example:
the
"Old Rite" schism, which was a huge tragedy for Russia, never
really happened in the Polish-occupied Ukraine.
Finally, the German
Nazis invaded the Ukraine and took Kiev. They were stopped in
Moscow (and in Stalingrad or Leningrad).
So there are REAL
distinctions between Ukrainian Russians and, let's say,
"northern Russians".
But distinctions or
differences do not imply any hatred or, even less so, the
creation ex nihilo of an invented nation with an invented
history. As long as the Ukraine was a "Ukraine of the Russian
civilizational realm" there was no problem.
In fact, most
Russians have very warm feelings for the Russian Ukraine.
But a
neo-Nazi rabidly russophobic Papist (or
Uniat/schismatic)
Ukraine was an impossible project from Day 1 and now this is
slowly becoming understood even by the Russia-hating West (at
least amongst those in the West who are still in touch with
reality, including the historical reality).
Conclusion
4: an oncological metaphor explains it best
A tumor must be excised by radiation, hormonal therapy or a
scalpel for the patient to survive, right?
But that requires an
oncological surgeon determined to clear the body from this
aberration. I don't see such a surgeon today. No, Putin won't do
it.
Why...?
Because Russia
neither needs nor wants to assume that role. She could, but it
would be violent and bloody. Almost nobody in Russia wants that,
and Putin least of all.
The EU is also dying and does not have
the means to "take the scalpel", primarily because they gave the
Neo-Nazi "Ukro-tumor" a standing ovation during the
Euromaidan
coup.
The US has much more
power, but since it also backed the Euromaidan to the hilt,
don't expect any US President or, even less so, Congress, to
admit that they backed Nazis against freedom loving Christians!
They simply cannot do that.
Thus, while in theory, the "body" of the Ukraine could/should be
clear from the Urkonazi tumor, there is nobody out there willing
and able to do it.
Some will tell me that Russia has the means to take this role.
Yes, in terms of *capability* she can.
But the reality is
that nobody in Russia wants Russia to take that role. At most,
Russia will back those Ukrainians who have taken up arms and
have resisted the Nazis, both in Crimea and in the Donbass.
In pure theory, the
borders of the LDNR could be moved west, but not too far.
As one LDNR military
commander once observed (sorry, I do not recall who it was),
"the further west
we go, the less we are seen as liberators and the more we
are seen as the occupiers".
He is right... The very
last thing Russia needs today is to include tens or even hundred
of thousands of unemployed Neo-Nazis into Russia!
As I have said a million times by now, Russia has no interest in
acquiring more land, or more folks to support (remember: the
Ukrainian economy is dead and the country deindustrialized).
Yes, Russia will
never allow an Ukronazi genocide against the people of the LDNR
and, in time, she might even incorporate the LDNR, but that's
it.
By the way,
Poroshenko in a moment of exasperation once told Putin "want the
Donbass - then take it!". Putin replied "niet".
It was the only
possible and correct answer.
Last
conclusion: when reality and ideology, reality always wins, even
if it takes time
The Euromaidan coup and the subsequent civil war prove, once
again, that in the struggle between ideology and reality, the
latter always prevails, even if it takes time.
In this case, it took
almost 1000 years or, if you have a much smaller historical
perspective, it took 28 years or even just 5 years.
The result is the
same:
the russophobic
"independent Ukraine" was a chimera, an illusion or, at
best, an attempt by the imperialist West to try to weaken
Russia.
After many ups and
downs, this project has failed. And, crucially, it has failed
whether the folks in the West understand it or not.
But then, the entire West's imperial project is now tanking, so
the Ukraine is just part of a much bigger process.
At the end, the
West will have to give up its imperial ambitions.
Which is good for the
planet, of course, but also for the people of the West who will,
sooner or later, recover their status as one of the most
important and powerful civilization in history (even without its
imperialist inclinations!).
But, just as that was
the case with all empires (including the Russian one!), this
will only come when western imperialism finally follows all
other imperialisms:
it will die and
toss its "imperial" illusions into the "trash bins of
history" where it will join all other forms of imperialism
in history.
